1
Wow. The team actually looks really promising going into next year.
.
Jeff: "Mariners pulled off a miracle."
Cindy: "Nice for the Mariners. Nicer for you."
Jeff: "Thanks for the lead."
.
THE Q GOING INTO 2016 WAS:
Could there be any possible way the Mariners could botch the re-signing of Hisashi Iwakuma. Given that he'd publicly announced that his #1 goal was to finish his career with the M's.
.
HOW *MUCH* CREDIT DO THE M'S GET FOR ROLLING THE CAR OFF THE CLIFF AND SEEING IT LAND ON ITS WHEELS
The experience is much like a SportsCenter highlight in which your center fielder breaks two steps left, then one in toward the infield, and then rrrraces into the left-center gap to lay out and sno-cone the ball in the webbing of his glove.
I mean, we come to find out the facts are bitterly resentable, that a "vested third year" vs. a "guaranteed third year" (and this at $12-14M, the cost of a lousy pitcher) was the Maginot Line against which the Mariners laid down a rolling cloud of mustard gas ... and this with Nelson Cruz having about 8 months' worth of homers in him. So it was verrrrrrry dubious to let it get to this point in the first place.
That said, of course it's encouraging that Lincoln and Mather showed much more payroll flexibility than *we in Seattle* are used to seeing. And it's VERY encouraging that Jerry DiPoto influenced them into it. It says here that Jack Zduriencik, bless his heart, might have had some trouble in doing this.
There's even the possibility that we get to keep the extra presents under the tree. Watch gingerly, over the next week, against rumors that the M's are going to flip Seth Smith to Oakland. But yeah.
.
HQ SEZ:
GOOD - "That 2H shows what to expect when he's healthy: pinpoint control (supported by elite FpK) (68% first pitch strikes - Dr D), swing-and-miss stuff, and a bunch of groundballs. It's a profile that makes him a low-risk mid-3's ERA target."
BAD - "Just heed health grade and don't expect 200 IP."
SLASH - 11-8 with a 3.33 ERA. 7.5 strikeouts, 1.5 walks, 50% grounders.
.
Q-o-VISION TRANSLATION:
N/A; don't be trite
.
.
HOW GOOD IS HISASHI IWAKUMA
N/A; don't be trite
Well, we can do a stat of the day. 2013-15, he has an xFIP of 3.13. This is #8 in the American League, ahead of Max Scherzer, for example.
David Price's xFIP over the same time frame is 3.06, and Price just signed for 7/$207M with two player opt-outs. Dr. D will have to ask the Think Tank whether this appropriately values the difference between 3.06 and 3.13.
.
Time-traveled photo from the 2016 WS champagne drenching
.
DR's PROGNOSIS
The bitter irony - for Mike Scioscia, of course - is that if Iwakuma simply accepts the M's first offer, the M's are probably sitting here today without Adam Lind and either Joaquin Benoit or Nori Aoki. The happiest man in the room has got to be Jerry DiPoto, who could not have gotten this offseason approved ahead of time. Even by his own expectations he has got to be 1 full season ahead of where he thought his rebuild would be.
Personally I like "Ferrari" type aces, guys you figure for 150 IP and three wins in the postseason. Always have, going back to 1996 when David Cone threw 70 IP (7-2, 2.88 and a nice win in the World Series)) for the World Champion Yankees. You don't need five starters to give you 200 innings.
But! Especially with this ballclub. For the first time in Mariner history, 1977-2016, the rotation has six legitimate starters. Gimme a name and I'll give you a guy who would have been the most talented SP on ten or twelve of those early ballclubs.
.
WHAT COULD YOU POSSIBLY WANT WITH 6 STARTING PITCHERS
Lemme grok this.
.
.
.
We took last year's rotation, and we added two arms, one right and one left. The left is Safeco's perfect Don't Beat Yourself Pitcher. The Right is a big hoss with a bigger breaking ball and, see below, a shot at 200 strikeouts.
Added two, huh.
.....
It will shake out. Last season the M's had THREE starters outside their top five who had to go TEN (10) or more starts each. Those being Vidal Nuno (10 starts), Mike Montgomery (16 starts) and then take your pick as to who was the #5: Elias (20 starts) or Paxton (13 starts). The first four were Felix, Iwakuma (feels so good just to type it now!), Happ, and Taijuan.
No team gets 30+ starts out of 5 different starters. With these starters the Opening Day Five will be nominal, only.
You wanna know how giddy is one Dr. D? Elias, who needs 'im. And Carson Smith, well, he'll prob'ly be replaced by Jeff Sullivan's "Mariner Secret Weapon," Tony Zych. I read it on Fangraphs, so you know it's twue. And, giddy-er ... considering home park, you wouldn't bet anything you were afraid to lose that Wei-Yin Chen is going to post a better ERA than Wade Miley. Not tonight you wouldn't.
This ballclub is one Mark Lowe away from bristling every single weapon that even a George Patton could ask for.
......
Next up: HQ POTD Nate Karns. Says HQ: "UP: 3.25 ERA, 200K." Let me read that projection again.
Be Afraid,
Dr D
Comments
2
You might have to go back to the 1970's Dodgers to find a way to deploy them. Paxton is the nominal #6 and you could use a lefty flamethrower in the pen, but their reasoning will be to get him reps in AAA.
Offense is the best I've seen since Edgar. Only the bullpen needs a Zych or two to break right and we're a 125-win juggernaut.
4
Well...this and signing a lease that guarantees I'll spend no time homeless and can move out of my current place on time. That was seriously in doubt until yesterday afternoon...LOL
GOMS!
5
Not every man can keep those two things in proper alignment. Way to get the lease together, post-Kuma.
6
Felix and Miley go every 5 days, and you rotate the other 4 through, saving wear and tear.
Ah...it probably doesn't work for your pen unless you have 6 rubber armed Mike Marshalls down there. But the math is neat if you look at it this way: 31 starts for Felix and Miley =62. Leaving a very round 100 to divey up among the other 4.
Hmmmmm...I might even be able to figure out that mathematical conundrum.
7
Andjuar on rotation, another guy or two with priority, and a couple of 'spot' starters.
The permutations are endless here. Let's skip the 2015 Cardinals solution (135 ERA+ with their ace on the DL) find the solution that gets all 6 into the All-Star Game.
8
Didn't hear about this until I woke up this morning and saw this post. Wah?? It's only the 18th of December and I get an ace in my lineup and a Dr. D post under the tree. Life can be good.
9
"It's only the 18th of December" he reminds ... 'member the days in which the M's would imperiously cast their best offers out there, let Boras shop them, complain that "some people need to make up their minds" and then sign Plan E in February?
One thing I'll give DiPoto: he elbows through the Black Friday mobs. No doubts there.
10
I knew you'd be giddy, Doc. As am I! This feeling... Of having DEPTH. Makes such a difference mentally. We're not betting the season on Paxton's lat.
11
Sounds like a catchy term, though. As it was when DiPoto coined the phrase "we're going to try to raise the floor around" our superstars.
Oh, the BaseballHQ mag is way bullish on Robby Cano, too...
12
Kuma and JeDi (yes the name is BACK) had this planned… THE WHOLE TIME… JeDi knew he would be in a bit of a financial crunch to sign Kuma and get all the rest of the moves made… So he cooked up a scheme with Kuma where he “signed” with the dodgers… JeDi went on a spending spree, then Kuma shimmied at the right moment in the MRI tube to sniggle out of the dodgers deal, and wham… Kuma back in Seattle with muchas weaponry added and a better chance at the World Series!
Way to go JeDi and Kuma!!
13
Cosign!
14
Ha! Only in this scenario Kuma gives up $30 million in guaranteed money. Stay out of California, Hishashi. They just don't appreciate you there.
15
Kuma knows he will maximise the next three years salaray AND live in Seattle legendary status forever! The actual total dollars once he meets all incentives are actually about the same as the Dodger deal.s. Whats a few mil to be beloved, especially once you are already set for life (your first 10 mil are the most improtant, which he has several times over).
I mean it's not like Dipoto could just turn around and offer him the full 3 years garunteed, or even 2, NOW... their whole cover would be blown!
:)
17
Shrugged his R shoulder up and down twice as the magno-tron slid by ... HEH
18
JeDi is awakened in his bed by the ghost of Woody Woodward. He and Woody fly to Safeco in a ghost jet, and see young Woody on a conference call with Randy Johnson and his agent. "Take it or leave it." Woody says and hangs up the phone. Flash forward to Randy holding up that Diamondbacks Jersey. Flash forward to Randy fitting his Diamondbacks hat for his hall of fame introduction. "It was a tough choice but I didn't really reach that next level until I was a Diamondback" Johnson says.
JeDi wakes up in cold sweat.
Only, ghost Jack Zduriencik is there. He is holding a ghost ledger book showing the secret profit and loss statement of the Mariners' board of directors. They have a tremendous profit margin, Z says. If you stick with the plan, they may turn on you eventually.
JeDi wakes up in cold sweat.
Only Dave Niehaus is there. He takes JeDi to the Mariners broadcasting booth. The ball yard is packed. The crowd is screaming. Who is the opponent? The Giants. They've come calling for their even year title! The Mariners lead in the ninth, two men are on, and the baseball boogeyman, Hunter Pence is at the plate, with his knee high socks and a rally beard. JeDi grabs a nearby waste basket in case he has to vomit.
Who's on the mound? Its Hisashi Iwakuma! He's drenched in sweat, but with a cold steely look in his eye.
He and Pence are pondering the eternal question: Spiked Shuuto or fastball on the black? "K INSERTED, its OOOOOOOVVVVEEERRRR" Niehaus bellows. The players rush the mound. Gatorade comes out, but then the teal Iwakuma jersey fades to Dodgers blue. Its Clayton Kershaw and Adrian Gonzales jumping on Iwakuma.
"NOOOOOOOOO"
JeDi wakes up in cold sweat.
He picks up his cell phone plugged in at his nightstand. "Kevin. Call a board meeting. We need to talk."
19
If it had a Ghost of XMas past, present, and future, then MLBTradeRumors would finally have given in and linked SSI.
.... don't know who worked harder, you on that spellbinding vision, or me on the cartoon. As you can see, it took me several hours to create that.
20
A Dickensian take on JeDi's spiritual renaissance -- should be required reading from now on. Truly a work of art.
22
"Iwakuma gets a $1 million signing bonus payable through December 2017 and a $10 million salary this year.
Seattle has $10 million options for 2017 and 2018, and Iwakuma would get a $1 million buyout if either option is declined. The 2017 option would become guaranteed at $14 million if he pitches 162 innings next year, and the 2018 option would become guaranteed at $15 million if he pitches 162 innings in 2017 or 324 combined in 2016 and '17.
In each season, he can earn $500,000 each for 150 innings pitched and each additional 10 through 190. He receives a full no-trade provision, eight business class plane tickets annually between Japan and the U.S. and a trainer with a $100,000 salary. When the contract ends, he will become a free agent again."
So:
1. The team can lock him in for 3 years in all scenarios.
2. Iwakuma can lock it in with 162 innings.
3. It's $10M, then $14M, then $15M, plus $2.5M in IP bonuses yearly, hence the max $47.5M. The M's bumped the max, creating a theoretical scenario better than the original offer, which must have consoled WBC-san a bit.
Cracks me up, eight BUSINESS class tickets into Sea-Tac airport when you're doing a $40M deal :- ) Eight first-class tix woulda been what, an extra $5K -
23
Is the 100k a year trainer standard practice? seems like s small potatoes alongside all of the other numbers. But that could change someone's life, if you're the trainer who gets picked out.
24
Unless you hang out at BYU, I'd suspect finding a competent trainer who is also bilingual in Japanese and English, and is willing to put up with MLB travel, will require premium pay.
Most likely the $100K includes travel expenses.