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Q. Does SSI like Vidal Nuno more than does the general consensus? or less?
A. Quite a bit less. Fans and GMs alike see Nuno as a valuable lefty reliever with decent-ish swing man potential. Y t'ain't gonna git that kinda recommendation here, padna.
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Q. What's the best thing about Nuno?
A. He's one of about five or six pitchers in the big leagues who throw very few fastballs. The pitchers who throw a legit 33% type fastball game -- you have to count the cut fastballs, here -- Zach Putnam who throws mostly (60% plus) splitfingers (!), Sergio Romo who throws 60% sliders, Huston Street who's up at about 40% fastballs but mixes two other pitches (almost unique in a closer) ... that's about it for relievers.
In the rotation, Colin McHugh defends his 90-MPH speed zone cap by throwing 40% sliders and 25% change curves of the 73 MPH variety; that's a lot like Evan Scribner, now that you look at it, and you would think that McHugh would sport a very short shelf life. In terms of his being a TOR starter. If Dr. D were the Astros GM he'd be looking to cash in Colin McHugh. So would Billy Beane...
You know which starter comes in #2 on the fewest-FB list? Legitimately? Felix throws 25% dry spitters, 25% curves, and 5% sliders. Very, very few Grade A starters throw fewer than 50% fastballs.
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We were sayin'. Vidal Nuno's arsenal is almost unique in the majors ... 45% sliders and curves that vary intentionally between 79 and 84 MPH, a good 20% changeups at -8 MPH, and he tries to throw a half-dozen located fatballs per inning without getting them swatted over the fence.
Why's that good? Dr. D has a weakness for "pitching backwards," for poaching a called Strike One while the glory hounds take one pitch hoping for a light tower shot. Fastballs may be "the currency of the land" in America, but they ain't in Japan. Dr. D considers Nuno an intelligent pitcher.
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Also -- you can't chase Nuno off the plate, no way no how. Like Danny Farquhar. And Bobby Ayala. You can be sure that Lou Piniella would have offered adoption papers.
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Q. What's the worst thing about Nuno?
A. He's got a 1.4 lifetime gopheritis rate, 42 jacks in 270 innings. Hey, 270 innings is exactly 30 games, isn't it ... I guess it's a 1.400000 homer rate. There are transcendental numbers in math:
I'm just funnin' ya. Nuno's fine; his low WHIP compensates to some extent. But that goes to the smoke-and-mirrors approach by which he tries to survive. Oh, I just said I like "pitching backwards?" That blends softly into "smoke and mirrors" as a pitcher's velocity drops below 90 MPH.
He gives up a lifetime SLG of .508 to right hand hitters. You understand Nelson Cruz' lifetime SLG spiked to .508 after his last two huge seasons. Dr. D is not comfy facing a lineup full of Nelson Cruzes.
Well, Cruz' SLG is .510. We trust that won't take your eye off the ball here.
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Q. So, LOOGY here, no?
A. So, LOOGY here, yes. He allows a .308 SLG vs lefties and I don't see that going up any time soon. He's got sharp arm action on that slider/curve and he can flat get lefties out.
Nobody can position a LHP to face all lefties, of course, and even if you could Vidal Nuno is not the guy you would want to expend that much effort on. But give Nuno a DISPROPORTIONATE set of lefties to face, and he'll be okay. This-all was SSI's take on Nuno, first blush, and nuttin's changed since then, homey.
There are a LOT of left hand relievers who can get left hand batters out. Thing is, Nuno is certified at doing so. He's not a Rob Rassmussen-style roll of the dice at it. (Hey, the Angels just now claimed Rassmussen, as well as Bobby LaFramboise. With their new GM, I guess the two ballclubs are trading floors in the high-rise condo?)
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Q. This was supposed to be a BaseballHQ Player of the Day.
A. Right ... getcher HQ copy rat cheer. Great, great read. I think it's the only thing I get that recurs automatically from year to year ... maybe my real estate taxes? Mojo could answer me dat.
HQ sez,
Role matters. Has standard issues that plague wannabe SP's: big platoon split; weaker 2nd and 3rd time thru lineup; too many HR's. But all three were quelled in pen with skills support (9.3 DOM, 2.1 CTL, 1.08 WHIP in 38 IP). Capable as a #5 SP, but has impact potential as a RP.
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Personally I would call Nuno more of a "stoploss" #5 starter, and more of a "dependable" RP if and only if used against lefties. But you can do a lot worse. In fact the 2015 Mariners had 15 different pitchers do a lot worse than Nuno, who had 0.0 WAR.
Like we sez, Vidal Nuno has proven that he can do his job; in that sense he's a GM no-brainer over an exciting young LOOGY like Tyler Olson. Nuno will be in the league for the next 5 years. The question is, do you want him on the 25-man roster over Mike Montgomery, and David Rollins, and James Paxton, and maybe Evan Scribner, and ... ?
It's a good problem to have,
Dr D
Not really, maybe, you're kidding, maybe.
But .308 vL is pretty dang interesting. Tony Sipp, in his wicked '15, was at .309, in case you mised it.
Paxton, you say? You know he's allowed a career .598 OPS vs. RHB's!!!! Lefties whack him to a .822 rate. Weird, no? Well, LHB's have a .427 BABIP vs. him. Go figure.....
Moe
That's a good catch on Sipp's SLG vs LH. Nuno's running that .308 lifetime. You can see from his coil how much he snaps that slider, and he sells it like a fastball. He's tough same side, no doo'ts there.
HQ nailed it when he said keep him out of the rotation and through the lineup again. You can see his spot starts when south in the 4th and 5th innings:
Vidal Nuno's ERA by inning as a mariner:
first inning: 8.10
2nd: 2.45
3rd: 2.25
4th: 7.71
5th: 5.73
6th: 0.0
7th: 1.04
8th: 2.08
9th: 3.38
He came to us with a 1.88 ERA with Arizona. So...I think if we keep him from spot starting and use him in middle relief, we got a pitcher here. Asking him to pitch 4-5 innings as a starter...not so good.
- See more at: http://baseball.seattlesportsinsider.com/blogs/the-2015-innings-pie-char...