The answer to your question after last night, Doc, is "yes"
What was the question, you ask? Here it is, from your post of September 5: "You think that Colin Kaeperncik has a little David Cassidy in him? :-)"
http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/russell-wilson-colin-kaepernick-...
Wasn't too easy to find that post, Doc. although it rumbled around in my brain. I did a google search on - David Cassidy Kaepernick - and Google wanted to first make sure I really meant it. Yes, Google, I did mean it. Ok, then, it replied, and there you were, #1 on the search parade. (1 out of 1 - ain't the internet a beautiful thing?). Anyway, we all got pretty tired of the Cassidy Schtick quick.
Here's the line above the question, for context: "David Cassidy," quipped James. (If you just joined us, at like age 17 Cassidy wrote a couple of neat pop jingles for The Partridge Family, became a shooting star, but the world passed him by two years later, and he had nothing else in the tank.)
Like you, I have a guilty schadenfruedic pleasure of reading the niner blogs. Last night, the fans were in full mutiny, and David, er Colin had definitely worn out his welcome. It was delicious.
But, on to Ackley. In my roto keeper league, I have Ackley at $19 for the second season of a three year contract ($260 dollars, AL only). Pretty much leaning on keeping, but I'll watch spring training to confirm. Unfortunately, I can't put him at second base this season. Also tempted to throw him back into the auction pool and maybe paying a few dollars less but that tends to backfire on me. But I was about to release him for nothing in mid season, and had all kinds of banjo hitting second basemen I was leaning on using instead. He went on that slugfest, and grok it was, even remembering it now. It was flat out fun to watch, for sure.
Don't stop thinking about tomorrow, baby.
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Q. Just how many legit breakout candidates do the Mariners have?
A. In the batter's box, or on the whole roster?
In the batter's box, they've got four (4) currently-struggling candidates for 2015 Club Controlled Player Who Is Better Than Justin Upton. Granted, one of them is going to traded far, far away, to a place where he'll never get a sniff of Canada again. He'll be the "sweetener" to a one-year rental, and go on to become the first 50/50 man since Joey Belle.
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Q. Is there a Method to anybody's Madness here?
A. When it comes to panning for breakout gold ... Ron Shandler: HE'LL REACH RIGHT DOWN HER THROAT AND RIP OUT HER HEART! THAT'S WHAT HE DOES! THAT'S ALLLLL HE DOES!
Well, pretty much. BaseballHQ is in its 28th edition. That's pretty much all rotisserie* baseball is. The guy who owned Corey Kluber and Jose Abreu last year, that guy won your roto league. That's all.
Scouts and sabes and him and her, they'll all tell you that roto is about stupid stuff, managing rosters, making trades, yada yada yada. It ain't. The guy with the coupla breakout players wins. "Of these 10 young pitchers, which ones will rock? Right now?" You could put a roto champ against any MLB analytics staff in the world, and the roto champ would win the contest of predicting bustouts.
They're more focused when they pan for gold. They keep it clean.
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Q. So like what do they say about Dustin Ackley?
A. This year, they'll say that:
- His trends are a moderate arc up, so there's potential,
- He had a gold-star pedigree, so there's star potential,
- He has flashed XYZ amount of power index, speed index, etc., which sets his ceiling,
- He's age 26. So if he's going to do it, he'll do it this year or next.
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Q. Whew. Thass CLEAN, man. What do the fine-grain analysts say?
A. As you know, we live to serve. BURPPPPwhoops Here are three recent articles you'll enjoy:
1) On Sept. 2, Tony Blengino wrote this really cool article, "Is Dustin Ackley Fixed?" Interestingly, before he gets to his favorite "batted ball type" breakdowns ... he does a scouting thing. Which couldn't match ours any closer if he tried. That gives the Think Tank the warm, cozy feeling that we are drafting the pro's a yard back.
Tony is relating the internal M's view when he says that, after his first great month, Ackley started pulling his head and hip off "and it took him a long, long time to adjust back." But, as you know, we said it better: Ackley Is Greedy. Power to the People, babe.
Anyway, Tony's article sez that Ackley, during his July-August rampage, hit a lot of tee shots. (Low, rising fly balls with vapor trails on them.)
Peculiarly, it then sets Ackley's UP as .275/.315/.425 - that's what he'd be if things broke right for him. To which we can confidently say, "Huh?" If Michael Saunders regressed to a .425 SLG next year we'd all be heartbroken. Unless, of course, he had been traded for Sonny Gray. And they say the M's couldn't give two snaps for Michael Saunders. So why invest this time in Dustin Ackley?!
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2) LL moshed off Tony with some cool graphics thrown in by handfuls. Quaato Lives. Quaato being Jeff Sullivan's inner prophet, of course.
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3) Just now, Shannon Drayer quoth Mike Blowers who opines that Ackley's thang is speed, not power. Interesting. Mikey doesn't buy into the July-August blizzard of 3-irons off the LF wall, the RCF wall, and into the fourth row of the RF seats.
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Q. What is Yesterday's News Today?
A. Pitch recognition is a dicey thing. We are literally talking about 0.20 seconds of decision time for any hitter, and the delta for a breakout is 0.03 seconds of anticipation.
Tony's great, but doesn't quite grok his own stat: during July and August, Ackley pulled 9 balls in the air to right field. The result? 7 homers, 2 doubles, and 0 outs. An .818 AVG and a 2.909 SLG. (Tony also pointed out that, in the second half, Ackley's "line drive hardness" was literally at Paul Goldschmidt (!!) level.)
These are "back leg specials," the decision to plant the back leg and punish a pitch. They're not dice being thrown. To a roto geek, this "flash" of 9 straight 3-irons suggests a top end other than a .425-ish slugging percentage.
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Q. Does it tell us anything that Ackley had a huge platoon split?
A. Prob'ly not. The Mainframe crunches that platoon splits, for hitters, are fool's gold, like clutchness. It's there for a year, then not. Granted, the Mainframe plagiarized the crunch from the Founding Father.
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Q. Did Dr. D listen to any cool music while typing, plagiarizing, and otherwise generally serving his fellow man? And were they really serving a turkey haunch to Richard Sherman on the 49ers' LOGO? That's some 1200 B.C. shtick, man.
A. The music was less threatening than the 9er fans were on their blogs. The music was also done by two sociopaths, their forlorn victim, and their indentured accomplice. These people are not as chill as Dr. D remembered them. Bankruptcy can drive people to desperate things.
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Q. On one blog, they had 16 comments and literally 16 different "keys" for Ackley. What's the right key?
A. Greed.
If and when he does an Ichiro, babe. If and when he is willing to make a living off PITCHER's pitches and let the mistakes happen by themselves.
You want to tell me when he'll change his attitude permanently, and give MLB pitchers more credit than he did NCAA pitchers? Didn't think so. Neither tell I you, by what authority I saith these things.
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Q. What is Tomorrow's News Today?
A. One LL b'wana said, aptly, "Literally nothing Ackley does will surprise me. He could hit .220 or be Don Mattingly." Or something like that. We're sure you agree.
The point is, Dustin Ackley is not Abraham Almonte. You're not being a "homer" to wonder about the 2015 All-Star Game. It's a very feasible possibility.
Put it this way. When he's right, that dude is FLAT OUT FUN TO WATCH. Will Clark, Don Mattingly, George Brett fun to watch. 'Course he doesn't have to be that good, to be our big add. Justin Upton ain't.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
THIS time I really had to fight the temptation not to put other people's pain in my happy-happy journal.
;- )
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Usually I kinda take your stuff for granted Rick, in terms of not replying to you enough. But you realize (I hope) it's because I would just reply "Dittos." Keep it comin' bro.
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It would take me a lot to give up on Roto-Ackley *this* year. He just now showed yer two months of the glory. But yeah, $19 for OF, for a guy who's not going to be Jose Bautista, the hit to your net profit can't be much can it? Even in the upside.
Ackley! He's the man crush of the FO. He's got that "Po-," of course. I wonder if he's just always going to be a boom and bust player, his mechanics and mind-set perhaps too quirky to hold together for a full season. He's a funny dude. He doesn't hit enough doubles or walk enough to be a secondary average star. Even in his "hot" 2nd half, he still only hit 13 doubles. .
He looks like he should hit 40 doubles. He doesn't. And he doesn't hit .280 either. He's never hit .280 over a full 1/2 season. OK...he hit .304 over 208 PA's in the 2nd half of '13. It was limited, but I suppose I should count it. And he can not sustain his 2nd 1/2 homer "barrage." It was almost too flukey, as pointed out.....even if he was planting his back leg. He kind of lives and dies on homers, but he can't sustain them.
But we're going to keep him. He's "our" kinda guy.
So let's trade Saunders already. Do it. Move on.
San Diego wants OF's. Work a deal with them for Cashner, who has a hard time staying healthy but would be a perfect Chris Young redux for us. Saunders and Erasmo. Find a way to get Quentin, too. Give 'em Blash + + & +.
Then we're done with Saunders, married to Ackley and we've addressed a #6 and a RHB DH.
I could live with that return.
And then watch Dustin Ackley struggle to be a 100 OPS guy again.
moe