As I've said a bunch of times, I'm happier than a pig in the mud with our Young and Restless arms: Povse, Moore, Whalen, Heston, etc. Especially Moore and Povse. Super really especially those two. So I studyfied them and learned myself up.
Moore and Povse both did something pretty interesting last year, down on their respective AA Southern League farms (Jackson for Moore, Mississippi for Povse). Both were in their Age 22 seasons, both pitched at least 70 AA innings (108 and 70), both ran BB/9 rates of 1.5 and both had K/BB rates of at least 4.0.
So a hayseed like me, chewing on a blade of grass, ponders about just how often all that occurs and can it tell us anything about guys who do it?
So I searched it up with no real intent in mind, but with the sense that it didn't happen all that much: Going back to 2005 (seemed a decent sample size), how many 21 or 22 years old, in the Southern League, threw 70+ innings with the other peripherals that Povse and Moore had?
Here's the List: Ross Ohlendorf and Andy Sonnanstine (2006); Johnny Cueto and Jeremy Hellickson (2007); Andy Sanabia and Michael Pineda (2010; Erasomo Ramirez (2011); Justin Nicolina and Jose Urena (2014).
That's it. And actually on Sonnanstine, Cueto, Hellickson and Pineda I had to include guys who BB'ed between 1.6-2.0 guys/9. So it doesn't get done, at least in the Southern League, very often. Should look at the other AA leagues...but I don't have the time right now. But here is something else interesting: All but one of those guys pitched in the bigs by the next season. Sanabia made it up during the same season but Hellickson took until 2010, a full year later (AA/AAA split in '09) to get to the show. Sonnanstine threw 130 big league innings as a rookie, Cueto 174, Pineda 172, Sanabia 72, Nicolino 74, Urena 61, Ramirez 59 and Ohlendorf just 6. I kind of like Ramirez as of the same template at Povse and Moore; Control guys who don't whiff 8+ a game. He was pretty good as a rookie then struggles with control for two years. The past two years, in a Ray's uni, he's been pretty good again. but then....maybe he isn't a great template for our guys.
Mostly I learned that there is a pretty dang good chance that both Moore and Povse throw for the M's in 2017. Well, I would have predicted that, but this gives it some statistical reliance. 89% of the guys who meet the comparison demand did it in my "study." Pinada and Cueto were clearly power pitchers, even on the AA farm. Truth be told, our guys aren't.
What does it mean? Well Sonnanstine was pretty good as a Sophomore, but not otherwise. Ohlendorf had two years as a middling #4 type. Sanabia hasn't done anything. Cueto, Hellickson, Pinada and Ramirez have been varying degrees of good/valuable. Nicolino has 25 '15-'16 starts with a 4.5 ERA. Urena has thrown 140 innings '15-'16 of 4.7 FIP ball.
So here's the safe bet: Both throw for the M's this season. Both throw more than just a handful of innings. One of them is decently good/valuable in '17. It is possible that Heston and Whalen are "first men up" when somebody in Seattle gets wounded, but that is no lock. Moore and Povse both may well be better than those two guys. Moore and Povse are not 40-Man guys right now, but if they are needed that can be remedied fairly easily.
Even if we add a Hammel it is likely one of them gets some MLB starts: We had 7 guys who took the hill 8 times or more in '16, and another 5 guys who took it once or twice. We have our Big 5 starters right now and then Heston, Whalen and Martin as guys with some MLB experience as starters. Give us a Hammel and we have 6 real starters and then the best of the rest. My small study indicates that it will be hard for both Moore and Povse to not be among the best of the rest.
There you go: A small but tasty Holiday sampler. I like the ones in the sampler box with nuts. Jennifer says that makes sense for me.
This hayseed will have to ponder what she means.
Edit: Ran the same study through the Eastern League, same years. Rafael Montero, henderson Alvarez, Josh Banks, Jeremy Sowers and Yusmeiro Petit did it: All were on a fast track to the bigs, by the next year.
Interestingly, several 21-22 year olds can be included, if you allow in BB rates at 2.0/9. Those are Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowdin, Hector Rondon, Matt Garza, AJ Cole (did it twice) and Noah Syndergaard. That's an impressive list of successful big league guys. I think that is because they K 8+ guys per game, rather than 6+. Those extra 2-4 K's seem to count for more than the .5 BB's cost you. Duh. Those two K's make a difference. Moore K'ed 7.1 last season, Povse 6.1. Edge Moore. Povse did K 9+ per game in A+ last year. He's got stuff.