FLIP from Merks: Don't know how many of you guys have lost a parent, but it's really hard on the psyche. It sounds like Smoak didn't just lose his dad but also his best friend and baseball confidante. ... I can't imagine trying to hit a fastball when your mind and body is not in synch.
I still believe Smoak is going to be a great player for the M's but this year is going to be tough for him regardless of how he is plays from here on out.
CHOP: Great catch by Merks. Justin Smoak has definitely been "on tilt" since then. The difference is subtle, between (1) an athlete whose mind is right, vs. (2) one who is playing in pain and fear.
And this would definitely account for the M's patience and silence on the subject. It is perfectly obvious that they're going to simply let him plod through the season without getting on him.
Wednesday night's manifestation: the Mariners loaded the bases for Smoak, 0 out, to lead off the game. Smoak stepped up to the plate with confident, aggressive body language.
Morrow, who to that point had been terrible, suddenly uncorked a 96-mph "exploding" fastball right on Smoak's hands, exactly over the black, hand-high. Smoak took the pitch, but was unnerved. Why is this guy suddenly dealing that to me?
Second pitch, Morrow came back with exactly the same thing and the ump enjoyed ringing the strike up, rung it up loudly and with gusto. At this point, if it's me, I feel like crying, you know? Life is supposed to be fair. We all have a little chip in our heads that tells us that. Life in 2011 has most assuredly not been fair to Justin Smoak, and the first inning of Wednesday's game was one more shoestring across the face.
Smoak battled hard, extended the AB from there, but Morrow set him up with a blazing FB just off the zone, and then pulled the string with a slider down and in. Smoak, jittery and shrill, lunged at the slider and struck out.
The rest of the game, Smoak was just awful, striking out two more times and looking overmatched. But, say that he'd seen a mistake in the first inning, I'm sure he'd have had three RBI.
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It's not easy to explain what it's like to have to compete against great athletes when you're feeling fragile. But take this away: Smoak is sliding down a dirt hill, scrabbling with his fingernails trying to stop, because of his frame of mind.
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FLIP from G-Money: He's not looking at the ball when he swings, he's looking at the fence. I agree with taro, the emasculatingly-low BABIP won't last, but he needs to improve his approach and return it to his early season one. Well, Doc called it on the early stuff where he was also pulling his eye-line off the ball, but he settled down after that for a month.
And now we're back to this. When he settles in I think Smoak will be great. Maybe not a true #4 but at least a great #5 (and I didn't think Morneau was a true #4 before 2 years ago but he helped drive that offense just fine).
CHOP: :cpoints:
We went through this friendly little debate last winter, and we're going to have it again this winter. :- ) LOL.
Experienced roto geeks are not phased by the ups-and-downs of 24-year-old sluggers. We're used to waiting for "age 26 with experience." We're used to Post-Hype Sleepers.
Not many blue-chippers hit the beach with Dustin Ackley's 50-cal blazing. Hitters can, and do, have bad seasons right up until they jell as MVP's.
You want a case in point, I know. Okay, try this one: Justin Morneau. At age 24 -- Smoak's age -- he regressed to .239/.304/.437, and that's in the MetroDome, so his OPS+ was a feeble 93.
But the next year, Morneau hit .325 with 34 jacks, stayed at 130-140 OPS+, until (apparently) leaping his next plateau at age 29, his 184 OPS+ bustout.
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You could find ........ lots ........ of Justin Morneaus and Justin Smoaks, players who are so colossally talented that fans become bitter when they don't bash in their rookie seasons. You could go find 50 of them, just since 1970.
SSI has detailed, before, all of the different things that Smoak does at the plate, the things that prove he is a great hitter, not just a powerful slugger. We're not talking about hoping on a Mike Carp card-flip here; Justin Smoak is a freak.
The kid is the Real Deal, no ifs ands or buts. He's going to rake in Safeco. I'll be surprised if it's later than next spring.
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BABVA,
Dr D
Smoak's profile is a bit different than Morneau. Hes not a contact hitter so he'll likely hit for less average. He walks more and will probably hit for slightly less power.
Smoak is more similar stylistically to Lance Berkman.
But Lance Berkman hit the beaches with the Astros with two Hall of Famers and a contender still in their productive years and had the luxury of not having to be The Man the second he got there. Berkman had a 152 OPS+, Moises Alou had a 151, Hidalgo was crushing it with a 147 and even Ken Caminiti was a grizzled vet mashing from the bench in between bouts of steroids.
Berkman was the New Kid, not the RBI Savior.
Morneau got there before hitter-of-the-decade Mauer, just like Smoak hit the beaches for us before hitter-of-the-decade Ackley. He had Corey Koskie and Torii Hunter on the team, but by definition that means there wasn't a masher. When Doug Man-cave-itch is the biggest masher on your team, you might not have a masher. They were an average offense when he got his first cup of coffee, but slipped below average his first mostly-full year. Then Mauer showed with his cup of coffee. Morneau struggled the next year in full duty as the expected masher, Mauer was plus but not great, and the offense slipped further.
The year after that they both slipped on the gorilla suits, as Lonnie would say, and started being who they were born to be.
It's not a swing-comp or a batting-line comp, but a situational and production one.
~G
I see situation-wise and development-wise. I think Smoak is going to turn into a good hitter, but prbably not a star. Morneau pre-breakout is similar type of hitter. Smoak probably has a tad less power with similar OBPs (Morneau more hits, Smoak more BBs).
Perhaps explain why you cap Smoak's ceiling? ;- )
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The reasons I don't:
35-40-homer natural power - huge guy, big bat wrap, LH in Safeco etc
Excellent ability to tell a ball from a strike
Has shown the ability to do all sorts of things with all sorts of pitches
Has shown glory, in flashes, already
Age-arc is totally consistent with MVP candidacy, e.g. Morneau and 50 others
No platoon issues
etc etc
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What do you see when you look at Justin Smoak and think, "24 homers"?
Hmmmm...