1
Doc,
That ball to centerfield was a shot last night....but it wasn't that close to going out. It hit 3 ft or so below the top of the fence. But it was pretty impressive....
.... M's 3
SLOPS TO JUSTIN SMOAK who, for the second time this year, had a HR catch the top of the fence on its way out. Or so they said on the radio; didn't see this game before the sixth inning.
Did see the one earlier this year that hit just about one foot from the top of the left-center fence, and did see the 420-footer into the wind in Detroit's vast CF that wound up a double. That double had to have been hit better, literally hit better, than any of his five HR's.
Smoak has hit more like 6-8 homers this year, rather than five. Pro-rated, that would be 30-40 homers on the season.
Now, Smoak's early HR stats are not the reason that SSI pegs him a Best Bet to hit 400+ home runs in his career.
Not to make a value judgment or anything, but my projection of 35-homer power for Smoak was much better than your 20+ projection was.
Remember how adamant SSI was, this winter, that Smoak is the real deal? SSI is 100.00% that adamant, that Smoak is a 35-homer guy.
This one's a no-brainer, kiddies. Watch and enjoy. Smoak is a bigtime HR guy.
.
DAVE HENDERSON has a quirky and interesting way of giving his field's-eye take on the game. When guys like Hendu snap off their one-liners, I think of Jack Nicklaus. "You can only think of one thing during your swing - maybe two."
An athlete on the field is keying in on very simple thoughts. But they are the right thoughts. Listen to Hendu's one-liners in that light and you'll get a lot of of him.
.
His latest: "Man, the pitchers are scared a' Smoak. Lotta offspeed stuff, and when they throw a fastball it's nibble and pick."
Here's an example - Smoak's second AB, the second HR which caught the CF fence on its way out:
Read through the AB one pitch at a time. Show-me, "hope this nicks the zone" fastballs against an offspeed pitch thrown to get into the count.
Finally on pitch 6, Lewis gave in, and Smoak hit a mortar shot off the CF boards.
.
In Smoak's first AB, the HR to right, Lewis threw a show-me FB and then on pitch two, threw an 82 changeup for a strike...
Justin Smoak did NOT --- > flinch but keep his hands back, later unwinding for power, in Edgar fashion.
Smoak DID --- > peer at the incoming slowball in studious fashion, slowly maintained the cocking action of his wrists, and when the ball arrived, he simply swatted it over the RF fence.
Last year, and early this year, Smoak was "cheating" fastball a little bit, in a shrill effort to go deep and impress somebody. Those days are long gone. Smoak stands in there, reads the pitch honestly, and whether he sees FB or offspeed he responds. He doesn't talk "at" the pitch; he talks "with" the pitch.
Dr. D has never in his sorry life seen an ML hitter read a changeup more calmly and studiously than Justin Smoak did tonight. I'm no longer wondering whether he's going to be Mark Teixeira. I'm starting to wonder whether he's going to be Stan Musial.
Ken Griffey Jr. never showed the range of skills this kid is showing. You know what he looks like to me, technically? He looks like a cross between Griffey and Edgar.
- Turning around high-90's fastballs.
- Pulling in the T-Rex arms to blast jam pitches.
- Reading offspeed stuff like he was peeking at the catcher.
- Taking outside pitches to the off-field on HR swings that look like Griffey's.
- Hitting huge Junior shots, 400' the other way, 420' plus to center, etc.
- Getting on top of pitches for solid RBI singles when they're there (very high AVG for Safeco).
- Refusing to swing at balls, and posting 1:1 EYE totals. From the right side and from the left.
.
The other day he ran 1B-to-3B and up in the third deck, I honestly thought I'd spaced out, and that Michael Saunders was the one running. So did Cindy. She didn't believe it was Smoak, at first.
I don't s'pose he's actually as good as [Griffey x Edgar]. But right now is demonstrating what such a hitter would look like.
.
BABVA,
Dr D
.
Comments
2
Pessimistic: "There's NO WAY Smoak stays this hot all year. He'll come back to earth when the league adjusts to him."
Optimistic: "Imagine how good he's gonna be when he gets the umps in his side, Edgar-fashion. 'Sorry Pitcher X, can't call that a strike because Smoak was yawning as it crossed the plate.'"
Will the league adjust to Smoak? They've already tried. Fastballs outside that he was trying to pull last year he started hitting for power the other way. So they went inside, and he's yanking those down the line for ground-rule doubles. Now like you said the nibbling's starting and they're hoping he can't hit a changeup.
He can.
Good pitching is about disrupting the hitter's timing, and nothing is getting Smoak off his game at this point. Yes, he IS hot, but he's also DANGER-ous. Leave a lazy fastball over the plate and he'll send it 400 feet and trot around the bases.
It kills me that he's not batting 4th to take better advantage of Ichiro and Figgins starting to get the on-base thing going. When either Ichiro or Chone gets on I keep seeing the #3 and 4 hitters get wiped out. How many more RBIs does Smoak have per 162 if he's not hitting tape-measure power shots to lead off innings? In the sorts of close games we'll be having over the course of the season, it matters.
He is our only offensive lynchpin - we've gotta put him behind the on-base guys more consistently. Bat him 4th.
And we've gotta find some more lynchpins. Ackley's not ready for that yet, even with his 1.25 batting eye and his .142 isolated on-base figure.
He has 13 walks against 5 Ks in his last 10 games...but is only hitting .167 over that span. His BABIP is .236, which is something like a hundred points below the minor league average.
He'll get there. The kid's gonna hit for a far higher average than he has so far. But I don't throw him to the lions before his luck turns around and he can feel better about his approach.
Since he's not ready to help power the offense, though...who is? I agree with previous statements from other posters - is this offense REALLY gonna work with one guy doing all the heavy lifting?
This swath of victories came after Justin got back from bereavement. One of our only losses was to the Rangers when Smoak had a bad game.
I am optimistic that Smoak is a HUGE part of our future, but I am pessimistic that we will be able to do anything significant, even with the pitching starting to come together in a big way, unless we get him some help.
Cust, Bradley, Ryan, Wilson, Saunders and Langerhans are not gonna get it done.
I have to say, though, that it's thrilling to watch 2 ultra-talented kids in Smoak and Pineda come up from the minors and perform BIG for us.
Jack just needs to find a few more pieces. The trade deadline could be very interesting - we thought we'd be moving Aardsma this year, but could it be League that goes instead to bring us a good return? Or Bedard?
Draft day is gonna be huge for me. If Rendon really does come here, maybe I can be a little more patient with the offense. If we get a pitcher instead, then Jack HAS to go get us a plus bat or two to help Smoak and eventually Ackley out.
They can't do it alone, even if one of them is already proving himself to be a special player and the other keeps showing glimpses of it.
Don't make Smoak pull a Luis Gonzalez in order for us to make anything happen with this team. It's not 2001 anymore - getting a "lucky" spike to 9+ WAR is not gonna happen.
~G
3
Bradley's $12M, Ja. Wilson's $5M, Cust's $2.5M and the Silva payoff to the Cubs ($5.5M) all come off the books. That's about $25M.
Ja. Wilson is the only one that HAS to go at the deadline. They can keep League and Aardsma if they're willing to pay them both what they'll get in arb -- don't know if they will, but they can.
Bedard wants to be here, and I think Z will reward that and not jerk him around. Of course, they'll have to pay him more next year.
But still, he ought to have every spot in the rotation covered and every spot in the infield covered. And RF (natch) and CF assuming Guti's adequate recovery.
That leaves LF and DH to cover with free agents or contracts acquired. THAT, ultimately is the best reason for Ackley@2b -- your club-control player is at a tougher spot to fill, and you find your rental bats in the fat part of the market.
But I totally agree they need to acquire a couple of guys who can provide offensive production.
4
I think the Z crew can argue that this coming off-season will be the first in which they are really in control of their own destiny.
Bradley, they can argue, was just the best return they could get on Bavasi's Silva debacle.
Ja. Wilson, they can argue, was the best they could do after they had to pull the plug on Bavasi's long-term investment in Yuni.
Olivo was necessary because Clement, Johnson and Moore all cratered.
Kotchman, Cust, Ray, etc. were just trying to scramble get production without much payroll impact.
But, other than the lack of MLB-ready guys at Tacoma, there shouldn't be much BB-hangover left after this season.
5
Because of the specific pitches that he is hitting (and the boost the park gives him). Like you say, if there is an adjustment remaining to pitchers, I don't know what it is.
Smoak likes to pull his hands in and Thome-club inside pitches. He stays back and hits offspeed stuff as if it was hanging. He goes yard the other way on outside pitches. He won't swing at a ball. What exactly are they supposed to do to slow him down in '011?
........
G, what about hitting Smoak 3rd? More AB's and closer to Ichiro that way.
Only problemo is finding a relatively okay OBP for the 9 slot... Ackley would be nice...
6
That would be soooooo sweet if they went two nice bats at those spots, or one AGone type...
I have an inkling that the Ackley experience is not going to be a lot different than the Smoak one, so if he can buy a RH power guy, all of a sudden there's your model Bill James offense: HOF leadoff, All-Star doubles guy**, two All-Star power guys... two right and two left...
7
Not to over-complicate the situation, but the Z-team appear to love Seager. Seager seems to be having a better year in AA than Ackley (granted one step up in AAA), both at bat and in the field. Is there room for both on the Mariners?
8
Yes please! Lets bat The Smoak Monster 3rd, and put Cust (yes, I know, I know) in the number 2 spot... he has the number three OBP on the team (after Smoak and Ichiro).
Ichiro will get plenty of stealing chances. Cust sees more FBs (and maybe that way we'll really be able to see if he's finished or not).
Ichiro might get better pitches as well. Smoak has the power to move Cust around the bases to counteract Cust's slow foot speed.
When Figgens heats up then bat him number 2 and drop the other guys back a spot.
Problemo: no one to protect Smoak.
9
So we're not gonna get all that cash to spend. He's making 10 mil this year and 18.5 mil next, IIRC. Still, you'd hope to be able to purchase a decent bat. I'd also love to pull a Sidney Ponson and trade Bedard at the deadline, telling him we'll bring him back in the winter for a multi-year deal and get some prospects in the bargain. Assuming we're bringing him back, anyway.
But that would take 16 mil or so off the top of that 25 million to spend. So we'd get one decent bat and some scraps if we bring back Bedard.
Ackley will help - just watched him whip that quick bat around and launch one over the RF fence in Tacoma, Ichiro-style. He really does have those quick wrists and great bat control. Every time I see him he's got diamond-hard strike zone control and plate coverage, and he hits the ball hard with that fast bat of his. I cannot figure out why his average is cratered, other than ridiculous luck and some bad swings on days I don't watch.
I stand by the Mark-Grace-at-the-plate thing, but Grace ran like he had a piano on his back, as somebody put it, and Ackley has major wheels. One of these days, light-switch + electricity is gonna make him light up like the sun.
And then we'll only need one more big bat, I guess. :)
~G
10
Thje reason Smoak is hitting fifth is because they started the year with him hitting 4th, and he was being too aggressive...so they moved him down to take pressure off of him and that accomplished two things:
1) He started tearing the cover off the ball
2) Olivo had protection and got a few pitches to hit and started hitting for power a bit more consistently.
Olivo is no great shakes, and he's not hitting THIS week, but he has been continuing to get pitches to hit and driving fly balls to the outfield...some of which will be home runs anywhere but Safeco, and you can't move Smoak back to 4th until you're sure he won't start pressing again.
11
If Seager is the real deal (which I still doubt), Ackley can move to LF and Seager can play 2B in two years. In the meantime we're covered at 2B and Seager has to earn his way onto the roster.
12
...that it's best to put a high OBP singles hitter in the 2 hole if you want to leverage the speed of your lead-off hitter. Cust would give Ichiro chances to steal, but he's either going to hit a double (most guys score on that anyway), a HR (all guys score on that), or a BB (doesn't change the leverage if Ichiro steals or doesn't steal second) if something good happens...and otherwise, the steal just works like a SH or a productive ground out if Cust does something bad (like K...which he'll do a TON).
Cust in the 2 hole would not help the speed game at all. I think if Smoak is now comfortable enough to avoid pressing like he did early in the year from the 4 spot...then the correct line-up arrangement goes Ichiro/Figgins/Cust/Smoak.
That does four things right:
1) Puts the singles hitter who can leverage Ichiro's speed and take a ton of pitches behind Ichiro
2) Gets Smoak in the middle of a ton of men on base situations because...
3) it gets the high OBP from Cust to the one spot where it actually helps the ballclub (he'd be drawing his "useless" walks ahead of the guy with the thunderstick)
and
4) Gets Cust some fastballs to hit in fastball counts.
13
Smoak never hit fourth.
14
Yeah. That's definitely better... if Figgens were doing his part.
15
...that he started the year hitting higher in the order. Dave Simms made specific reference to the Olivo switch helping Smoak by taking the pressure off of him. But, wouldn't you know it, all they did was flip Cust and Olivo...color me a moron. :\
I still think you can't move Smoak up in the order until you're certain he's comfortable with that arrangement...you don't want to interrupt a groove.
16
Smoak's only batted 5th for the Mariners this year, at least according to B-R and what I remember, though he pinch-hit once in the 9th spot in a very key situation.
Smoak has always been #5 for us this year, and it's time to move him up. If you want Olivo to hit in front of him, then bat Olivo third. There's no reason for a 2-bat gap between Smoak and the guys who are supposed to be on base, filled by a slumping Bradley and a never-walks-and-streaky Olivo. Let Smoak drive Ichiro in, and Figgins if he keeps getting on base.
Smoak's led off 27 innings this year. That's basically a quarter of his plate appearances that are guaranteed not to have runners on. Smoak took a week off and is STILL (tied for) second on the team in leading off innings, behind Ichiro. Justin has hit 2 doubles and 3 HRs in those situations with no chance of scoring anyone but himself. Runs are at a premium in this offense.
Move him up. It's not like he's unaware that the offense is on his shoulders. Shifting him from 5 to 4 isn't likely to make him more aware of it.
~G
17
He got off to another horrid start, but he's getting on base lately. Last 15 games:
17/57 (.298), 10 R, 5 SB, 5 BB/7 K (.354 OBP)
That's what he needs to do to be useful in the 2 hole. That and let Ichiro get more chances to steal and score runs...Ichiro last 16 games (one extra because Figgy had that day off):
12 R (that's a 120 R/162 pace, folks), 6 SB, 0 CS, 24/66 (.364 average)
Yep...I'd say Figgins IS doing his part.
18
...is that Wege has shown a good feel for his personnel and where to deploy them...and he's not making that change as of yet...there has to be a reason. I agree that numerically I'd rather have Smoak hit fourth and Olivo 5th or 6th...I just think that there's gotta be some logical reason why Wedge is sticking with Smoak fifth.
19
But if we have to wait for Smoak to slump to risk interrupting his groove, then his slump will be an indication that he shouldn't be moved to the 4 hole with "more pressure" anyway. It's a catch-22.
If a guy is hot you move him to take advantage of that hot streak.
If a guy is good, then you put him where he can do the most damage.
Smoak is both hot and good. "I'm afraid to move you because then if you have an 0-fer I'll get blamed for it" is bad roster management, IMO.
Lineup optimization may be over-rated generally, but when a team relies on everything working perfectly to score runs then optimization is the difference between wins and losses. We've had an incredible run the last week and a half, but to maintain it we're gonna have to get ahead of the luck factor.
There's a lot of season left and I'd hate for Smoak to be guaranteed to have nobody on base for his power shots in another hundred plate appearances this year.
~G
20
He's done well with the bullpen, and he's got the rotation humming along, and the lineup is producing as well as we can expect this motley collection to produce. He's yelled at guys when they needed yelling at and promoted bats like Olivo when I would have been looking to go a different way.
But with Bradley dying/dead on the vine and Olivo putting up a .236 OBP with 6 walks all year...it's not helping. Maybe with one of em Smoak could provide protection, but certainly not with both of em.
They're serving the function of the pitcher in the NL - the guy on the mound looks at them and says, "NEVER let those guys on base with two outs, there's no excuse for it - save the more dangerous guys to start out next inning not continue this one."
That can't keep happening. All I'm saying. :)
~G
21
I would personally rather see Cust and Smoak hitting 3 and 4 to get the OBP guys on top. Run your Ichiro/Figgins/Cust (for extra baserunners in front of...) Smoak foursome and the team will probably score a full half-run a game more than it does now, just because Smoak's hits will matter more.