Michael Morse 501 - Dr's Prognosis
Come 2014, Dr. D remote views an awkward silence across the land...

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=== Bret Boone?  Mike Piazza? ===

BTW, have you ever thought about the difference between "pretty" and "beautiful"?  In Greek, beauty carries with it the idea of nobility, of that which is morally sound, of that which imparts a sense of well-being.  

Ugly things, you're looking forward to the moment at which you can look away.  Pretty things, you're looking forward to spending some extra moments viewing them.  Beautiful things, you look forward to thinking about them after you viewed them.  A Japanese cherry blossom tree is not only pink, but it's lovingly cultured, it's alive, it is a reminder to us that benevolence exists.

Morse doesn't always hit 80% of his homers the other way, like he did in 2012.  In 2011 his scatterchart was a pleasure to behold:

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This speaks to a very talented athlete who listened to the pitchers throwing the ball, who interacted with them harmoniously.

And you want to talk about easy power to all fields.  Here is a June 24, 2011 home run, left the bat at 112 MPH, went 444 feet -- to straightaway center field.  It broke up a 0-0 shutout in the 8th.  The M's could use a few of 'em.

Why didn't he hit them as hard in 2012?  He had a torn lat muscle, a bad thumb, a fouled-up wrist.  So his MPH and homer distance were only above-average.  That's hitting the ball the other way...

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=== Career Path ===

For Morse's b-ref.com comps, life was nasty, brutish and short after age 31.  His comps consist of Jay Payton, Kevin Millar, and guys like that.  From ages 31 to the end of his career, the ENTIRE comp set had a piddling 102 OPS+ ... for only five more years, which on that chart is pretty short.

You might protest, Morse's comps will be skewed.  He arrived late, and b-ref comps go by career hits totals and stuff.

I might reply, true, but have you checked Mike Morse's EYE ratio?

............

Morse is year to year.  Which is fortunate, because he has one arb year left...

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=== WAR Heroes ===

The Fangraphs article summarizes Morse as a 2-win player, which is to say a Mediocre player.  We went through this with Kendrys Morales.  See that series if want to trudge through that barren wilderness again -- at the oasis you'll find GM's paying RBI men far in excess of their WAR estimations.

Morse can hit a ton, can hit at least as well as Justin Upton, and then it's on you to find a place to play your shiny new #3-#4 hitters.  Hopefully 1B and RF for Morse -- RF against righty-stacked batting orders -- and DH for Morales.  In 2013, you'd be talking 120 games apiece for Morse, Morales, Jaso and Montero, but that's cool.  Spot them right and you inflate their stats.

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=== Trade Booty ===

Would Dr. D cough up Stephen Pryor or Carter Capps or Charlie Furbush for Morse?  Owie. Charlie Furbush, I guess.  A cleanup hitter doesn't sound like much, but try and find one some year when you're scoring 513 runs.

Lot of prospects I'd rather give up than Carter Capps, amigo.  I need him to land the guy I'm going to hit between Fat Ichiro and Michael Morse.

BABVA,

Dr D

 

Comments

1

Whether they get Morse or not, what I like is:
No shlub space-filler catcher.  Loading up on Kendrys and Ibby (and Morse would only reinforce) requires Wedge to play without the "Olivo" club in his bag.  Those ABs will go to Montero and Jaso.
Not blocking the platoons of kids hitting the beach nor blocking the Stanton-level themonuclear option by overpaying for a mid-range free agent just to get one.  The temptation has to be great, but you're right, Doc, that Beane always gets it done without giving seven years to Jayson Werth or whatever.

2

I'm in. Ask Kurosawa about hired guns....er, blades
He knew.
I loved Morse the first time we had him. All he did was hit the ball hard. He got hurt. We panicked. Oops.
We're he named Butler, we would squeal....right on. But he isn't named Butler, so the price will be dang reasonable.
Furbish? Oh, pleeeeeze.
Goodness knows I'm a Carp fan, but Carp is gone anyway. And Morse is all we want Carp to be. And more than we hope Smoak to be.
Run Saunders out to CF everyday. Split LF in a platoon of some sort, include Guti or Wells (preferably). I suppose the momentum is to include Raul in that platoon. I would go with Thames...I think he's about to mash. Raul's vR #'s the last three years have been .277-.366-.455, .256-.307-.440, .248-.319-.492. Thames has been .261-.307-.446 over the same period. Not enough difference to spit at. Which is why the Raul signing was weird in the first place. The Guti/Wells guy would get another 50 starts vR (Resting Saunders and Morse), anyway.
And you really aren't going to play a lot of games with Morse AND Raul in the same OF. Ish!
You could well get two years out of Morse...or three.
Take the big guy (for the right lefty bullpen arm) and run. Giggle as you do it.
moe

3

Playing without the Olivo club in his bag?  Does that metaphor work for you Mo' Dawg?
Hadn't really occurred, the master stroke applied by GM Zduriencik .... whoa, sorry, Eric, looks like with Raul and Kendrys and Michael, we may have to keep that catcher at Tacoma, a few miles down I-5 for you ... 
..........
Beauty is, there are some scenarios where you *could* wind up with Morse for a couple of years, if he pulls a Russ Branyan ... I thought Iwakuma was going to be one and done for sure, but I sure jumped on home plate too hard that time...

4

But Bay is cheaper. Morse is gonna cost several million more, plus whatever we trade for him (not a ton, since everybody knows the Nats aren't keeping him).
Morales cost us Vargas. Morse would be... less. So for a fungible piece (like LH reliver Moran or some such, plus a lower-minors prospect) Mike should be available to us. I agree with the one-year-stopgap nature, Doc - which I'm kind of tired of after Cust/ Sweeney/ Chavez/ Langerhans/ Griffey/ Branyan (second time)/ Wilson/ Bradley/ Kotchman...
If the phrase is, "second verse, same as the first" well we're on verse 12 or so by now. The stopgaps that have worked: Branyan (first time), Kennedy, maybe Jaso (if you consider Jaso a stopgap, which I don't). Griffey in his first year maybe, but considering how that blew the team up and took down a coach in year two, it's hard to cry "victory!" with that one.
That's it. We've whiffed way more than we've succeeded. In fact, the major failing in Jack's regime has been his inability to get production from veterans on one or two year fliers. We've only had ONE major free agent contract (Figgins) to whiff on, so being 0-fer-1 isn't a catastrophe. Going 2-fer-whatever on the free-agent help market is what's killed us.
Morse can hit. If Morse and Kendry come through, maybe we can break that tough streak. Then all we need is for the kids to come through for us, like their talent says they should.
~G

5

Though Pete Carroll may be more in line for the b-ref comp, wouldn't you say?  :- )
Glad to have the club pro /cosign on the shtick.  Must not be as crazy as usual.
...............
Ya if you are going to give Rauuul and Morse some RF AB's, that's where a Guti/Saunders/Wells combo in LF/RF becomes just about required, you would think... what is the golf metaphor for keeping a recovery club in your bag if you're going to try to drive a narrow fairway...

6

G being Gillick, of course...
Do you see Pat Gillick going with Mike Morse in this situation?  He was always big on character and on fitting guys' swings to the park ... am guessing that he'd be good with Morse on both counts, but 'tis hard to say...

8
M-Pops's picture

Z owes PAs to neither Raul nor Bay. Both are past their prime and signed generous contracts considering their probable roles on the '13 squad. I think they are there to step in should the unthinkable happen and the O collapses.
Bulk PAs would go to Morse and Morales, who are playing for their first big FA contract. I would guess that, should the M's acquire Morse, 1B and DH would be theirs with Montero and Jaso alternating between C and DH and Morse playing OF on Felix/Iwakuma starts. Smoak would "prove it" in Tacoma in this scenario for at least the first half.
In the end, this plan could net the team comp picks (Morales and Morse) and buy Z more time to make his defining acqusition(s), as Paxton/Hultzen/Ramirez establish themselves as quality young SP and thus become some of MLB's most valued comodities.

9

Many golfers chip with the same club all the time...say an 9-iron, whether they need a high soft flop or a chip and ruuuuuuun shot. It is what they know, what the feel comfortable with....even if it doesn't quite fit the situation.
Wedge and Olivo to a T, don't you think.
I'm all in on that metaphor.

10
ghost's picture

And repeat same comments if the Ms should happen to acquire something bigger like Stanton, Upton (shudder) or Ethier.
They get the PAs and Ibanez is a rather expensive fourth OF and Bay is DFAd

11

Since none of us will want to pay Morse $14 mil next year any way, let's go sign Napoli.
The Red Sox have not been able to get it done. We have money.
Napoli should be able to catch 30 games - even if his hip hurts. And the days Napoli spends on the DL will allow others to come up and show what they have learned in AAA this year.

12
ghost's picture

Yep...this is a similar situation except with Ben Cherrington at the helm instead of Peter FatHead Angelos. But the Sox sound like they're about ready to give up on convincing Napoli to accept a worse deal because they're nervous about that hip of his and he might be at the same place Aaron Sele reached with Angelos worrying about his shoulder. Remember that? Os offer Sele 21 mil/3 years...Sele agrees to terms. Os do physical. Sele fails on minor shoulder swelling and signs of stress tearing. Angelos tries to reneg on original deal and get safety language added and such. Sele gets mad. Gillick drops him a line saying "dude...you want to sign a deal TOMORROW?" Ms land Sele for 2/15. :)
Time to offer Napoli his choice of 3/33 or 2/26 with a club option that vests if he gets into 250 games total between 2013/2014. That'll play...that'll play real smooth.

14

I don't know if this has been pointed out: The RH batting Napoli whacked .250-.365-.496 vR last year. Basically right on his career averages. "Boom, Bam, Pow"
Against lefties, who he had beat like a drum over his career (to a line of .271-.381-.529) he "hit" .179-.295-.411, with a BABIP of .185.
Weird, no?
That can not continue in any rational universe. Throw the money on the table and finesse him this way.
If....we have to give up more than the expendable lefty to get Morse, that is. It becomes close if Furbish = Morse.
moe

15
ghost's picture

John Jason going out for Mike Morse.
To which I can only say...
Huh.............
Z must think Morse is a lock for 25 taters and Jaso isn't going to get enough PT...he must think he can get by with Montero and like...Adam Moore (is he still on the roster?)...he can't be thinking Zunino...that would be rather foolish.

16
M-Pops's picture

Josh Lueke Montero and Zunino are the future of this club. Jaso will be remembered fondly, but was very much redundant on this team. Z maximized Jaso's value and cleared some AB's for Montero at C and Kendrys/Raul/Bay at DH.
Interesting how people are reacting to this trade: Big Blog hates it, PI likes it, LL dislikes it as well.
I think Z did well to cash in the Jaso stock. We get our second MOTO bat without giving up part of the next good M's team.
Next to go is Carp and Kelly, I think.

17

It appears that Jack is going to get rid of the Safeco is a horrible place for hitters by stacking a line up with as many big boppers that he can.

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