Lonnie of MC on 3B Matt Mangini - Crunch

Lonnie goes,

The results are obvious.  I went over all of this over at my site in one of my "Hitting Evolution" pieces.

Ya, I know my Mangini lore :)

Lonnie

The lore and then some, Dean...

Only question left:  how does a guy with his kind of batspeed, and as well as he gets on top of the ball ... how does he run such disappointing K/BB ratios?

The fact that he attacks early in the count isn't enough to explain ratios like 12:64 and 26:96 from a talented college hitter who usually has the platoon advantage.

If the leg enters into it, fine, but not sure how those two factors would intersect. 

...................

The leg would, in theory, explain a lack of power and a static swing, and Matt was indeed arm-swinging to some extent when I saw him.

He hit a pro-rated 25 homers at Cheney, and if he did it on one leg, then he's looking at 35-40 in the bigs...

Seriously, my one complaint about his path to the baseball was that it was top-half-heavy.  Now that we hear about the leg, I want to see his swing with his backside involved in the decision.

.

=== Dr's Diagnosis ===

Can definitely see how the severe injury would sap PWR and take away range at 3B.

Oddly, these weren't the weak spots in Mangini's game; nobody complained that he would have difficulty getting ML playing time because of only 25* homers at Cheney.

Issues for me were

  1. Stone hands and being scared of the ball at 3B
  2. He's been a fairly slow learner at the plate, including in his ML debut
  3. An upside that doesn't push through the pack, Carp, Cust, everybody else who plays 1B

And the leg, though important, doesn't seem to bear on those things all that much.

How about the excuses pertaining to the messed-up swing?  Everybody's got those... but, sure.  There are major leaguers, such as Ryan Howard and Jack Cust and Raul Ibanez to name three of 1,000, who needed to work out the kinks.

...............

All things considered, SSI is willing to take a fresh look at Mangini for 2012.  Am not particularly hopeful about it, but the caveats have been logged with thanks.  :- )

.

=== Free Medical Samples Dept. ===

As far as the picture above:  Bill James once noticed that HBP counts were wayyyyy up in the low minors, or among hitters who never saw ML time, or something like that.

What makes a big leaguer?  Reaction time. Pro baseball is blurry fast.

.

Cheerio,

Dr D

Comments

1
Lonnie of MC's picture

...hijack your site :)
If you missed my writeup on Mangin it can be found here:
http://www.marinercentral.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=5522
"Only question left:  how does a guy with his kind of batspeed, and as well as he gets on top of the ball ... how does he run such disappointing K/BB ratios?"
I think that it is a combination of factors.  The main one IMHO is that he was working so hard on his swing that such things like EYE weren't even considered by Mangini or his coaches.  It was far to important to get the swing correct.
Interestingly, His eye, up until last year, was getting pretty damn good.
EYE 
2008 - .316
2009 - .391
2010 - .272
Still though, with that gargantuan drop in EYE in 2010 one thing is important to know.  His K rate actually  stayed pretty much the same from 2009, which was a big improvement over 2008.
2008 - 27.34
2009 - 21.90
2010 - 21.80
The difference was that Mangini swapped out walks for hits in 2010.  Not just hits, but hits with power!  Considering that 2010 was the first time in years that his swing was "right", I don't hold the drop in walks against him one bit.
Perhaps one explanation for Mangini's drop in EYE rate in 2010 was due directly to his own philisophical approach to batting.  Everyone is different and probably everyone has a variation on the theme of hitting.  With some guys, it's pretty obvious what they are trying to do at the plate be it drive in runs, move a runner over, or just get on base.  Big guys like Mangini might be more in tune with the philisophy of getting the runners in.
Just a theory....
I have one thought about any stat, and that is no stat is an island.  EYE rates, without taking into consideration other stats is interesting, but it isn't good by itself for getting a grasp of what a player is doing. 
Borrowing a bit of SSI vernacular, are ya grokking what I'm saying?
 
Lonnie
 

2

I've been hanging around MC the Ms blog-o-sphere for what ... 5 years now? 
I do believe this may the first time that there has actually been prolonged discussions about player DEVELOPMENT. 
Okay, maybe I'm projecting -- but my sense of the past half decade is that "prospects" were viewed in one of two ways ... what great stats they were putting up ... or what great stats they would put up once they "developed".
Mind you, there WERE posts about a guy needing to fix this weakness or that weakness ... but no real categorization of the chaotic nature of ACTUAL player development.
And what I draw from this revelation is this ... the REASON that nobody had discussions about player development is because it wasn't happening.  For most of the first decade of the 21st century the Ms simply drafted (or signed international FAs) see-ball, hit-ball types and they climbed the ladder until they could no longer see the ball.
So, the question for me is ... did guys who have been following the Ms for decades just gotten loads smarter than they were 5 years ago ... or is the discussion an artifact of actual player "development" occuring?
It's sort of the "uncertainty principle" in reverse.  Can an observer remain unaffected when watching an experiment?
I've been fairly down about the 2011 prospects for Seattle, (pun intended).  While most might consider this thread just one more in a laundry list of prospect dissections.  I'm thinking it may in possibly the weirdest connection I've ever made, the evidence I've been looking for that player development has returned to the Ms farm system.

3

...to start my day off right.  Thanks for that, Sandy.  Glad to see see a quarter million words on the subject dismissed because we APPARENTLY didn't CAPITALIZE enough LETTERS to GET your ATTENTION.
I'm sorry you've missed all the fine prospect discussions we've been having for the last half-decade.  I admit, the Ms made it hard to notice prospect development happening, because they traded away anyone they actually got through the process (Choo, As-Cab, Sherrill, Jones, etc) or failed to develop all the "talents" they signed or drafted (every prospect other than Felix, basically - I consider Putz a lucky accident since it was another pitcher that taught him the forkball).
But just because you weren't there when the tree fall in the forest, let's not assume it was silent when it fell.  
I'd like to think a lot of people have gotten a lot smarter about prospects in an age when complete minor league stats finally became available and weren't guarded with secret handshakes, masonic oaths and yearly subscriptions.
But by all means, pat yourself on the back (or whatever body part you choose) and congratulate yourself on summiting the mountain first.
Feel free to ignore all the flags planted there before your arrival - or mine.
~G

4
Lonnie of MC's picture

Doc has been pretty good at looking at player development, IMHO.  And just recently I've jumped in with both feet.  
I think that the reason that there hasn't been any really indepth dicsussions about player development is because of a couple of things.
1 - Those "in the know" are afraid to back any fringy prospect out of fear to be looking like they are backing a failure.  I have never understood that philosphy because until any minor leaguer actually shows that they are peaking short of the MLB level then they should be put in the same catagory as those in the blue-chip column.
2 - Too many people are quick to strikedown a point of view because of a "small sample size", which is, IMHO, short-sighted.  Because they lack the ability and/or willingness to step away from the herd mentality they view attempts like mine, and in some cases Doc's approaches as "wrong".  Their loss.
Lately I've been delving deeper and deeper into the stats, and more importantly the splits of a lot of fringy prospects to see how they are really doing.  Too many people are stuck in the "small sample size" mode where anything less than a full-season worth of stats isn't worth looking at.  I say BUNK!  Growth can be seen in some of the smallest samples if a person is willing to take a look.
Lonnie

5

Obviously, my post was clear as mud.
It was not my intent to impune the work of the many posters, (especially Doc), that have posted their thoughts and analyses of prospects for oh these many years.  I have the greatest of respect for all of them.
Perhaps an example -- back at DOV, Doc once posted an analysis of Jeff Clement, where he noted that Clement had a hole in his swing ... and that is why he was back in AAA.  That's great work - valuable - and astute.
What never got published was ... "Jeff Clement has fixed the hole in his swing."
My point is that the Clements and Reeds and Wlads of the past never really changed.  Oh, somebody might pop up and put up better numbers than ever before, (Adam Jones), but the aspect that was ... lacking ... were explanations - especially "predictive" explanations for production spikes. 
For all the excitement about Mike Wilson early last year, he was pretty much posting the same line in 2010 that he posted in 2008 with little notice. 
The difference is in speaking about actual change in hitters showing up in their stats and then postulating on exactly what they are doing differently as opposed to mostly just speaking of what ought be done that might result in player development.
Hey, maybe I'm full of it.  I'm talking about a subtle change in the prospect discussions that I'm perceiving.  I haven't done a 'study' on prospect posts to support my instinct here.  And the best evidence I could give to support my view is that I certainly was not looking for something different, which is no evidence at all.
I'm hearing a change of key, if you will.  Prospect posts have been in the key of Bb and they've somehow modulated up to D.  I think this is a good thing.  And I think what I'm feeling is because in prior years there was scant actual player development to discuss ... only prospect watching. 

6
Lonnie of MC's picture

Sandy,
I've done a lot of work over the course of the last three years concerning the minors, and I believe that for the most part I fall into the catagory that you describe.  I've shown what a prospect has done, and what they need to do, but hardly ever have I shown where they have made improvements.  In the last 6 months or so I've been trying to rectify that since we finally have some guys in the system who lack that fatal 6th tool; intelligence.  There really are just two position players that I feel comfortable talking about who have been in the system for more than three years, and that is Mangini and Liddi.
One of the big problems HAS been a real lack of baseball talent in the system up until the last two years.  We have had waaaaayyyy tooooo many Carlos Triunfel's, and not nearly enough Alex Liddi's.  Now we have a growing amount of baseball guys to look at like Nate Tenbrink, Johermyn Chavez, and many others.
You darn sure can expect more of this kind of work out of me in the future!
Lonnie

7

Still don't get where you're coming from, Sandy.  Up until very recently, there were only basic stats on minor leaguers.  Walks, Ks, hits, OBP...that's still most of what we've got, though we're getting much better.  There's still a huge lack of video. So how do you get predictive about swings and pitching motions with players who are barely seen?
If two hitters, lets call them Halman and Balentien, have similar eye rates in A+ (~.21 batting eyes for both) is one worth more than another?  It was my contention that Balentien was a better bet to improve his eye and that he would in AA.  He did, but dropped his power to do so.  I also contended he would get his power back and keep the eye, which he also did.
When he got jerked around in the bigs and shipped back to AAA his stats plummeted.  This concerned me as a sign or mental weakness and needing positive strokes he wasn't getting, and it was repeated with the Reds.  I thought he just needed to go to a smaller park and get a better shot from a more committed management staff.
Balentien is now going to try his hand in Japan.  Halman is still here.  I was "right" about everything with Balentien...but Halman may still have the better major league career.
But how much of that was guessing rather than predictive?  What counts as scientific and what counts as "my gut says...?"
How do you predict a new pitch added to a repertoire?  I was very dismissive of Putz as a major leaguer after having paid close attention to his minor league career.  He simply did not have an offspeed offering and his amazing FB wasn't enough.  He was a bad starter and an okay reliever.  That's it.  Then Everyday Eddie taught him the forkball and his career exploded into the stratosphere.
I hated Matt Thornton, and the White Sox gleefully took him off our hands, made a minor correction to his landing on the pitch and he's been an outstanding reliever ever since.
I said Mangini used too much of an upper-body swing in college and until he connected his hips he wouldn't be especially useful - but once he did his power should play anywhere.  He fixed it and posted a pretty monster year for a 3B in a pitcher's park, while injured.
But I couldn't tell you, "Putz just needs to learn a forkball to be awesome" or "Thornton has a leg issue to correct" or "Mangini will get the hip thing right in 2010, and then watch out."
I did point out that Mangini had his results change in June of 2009 just watching the numbers, and I had high hopes for it carrying over to 2010 as he finally found some of that power.  But without video of his May swing and his July swing, how would I know whether he corrected it, or was just lucky?
How predictive would you like us minor league prospectors to be when we have limited video from inopportune times in a player's career, limited stats, limited in-person exposure...
All we can do is tell you who we find to be interesting and why, and what we've seen in their paths so far.  Maybe give some anecdotes from friends who have seem him, or try to provide nuggets gleaned.  Grabbing a couple of appendages, sight unseen, and declaring "elephant" instead of "tree" or "snake" isn't the easiest thing in the world even for the people who are paid to do it by the teams themselves.
What type of "predictive player development" conversation would you like to see?  When people got all excited about Mike Wilson I tried to point out that his own manager was batting him 8th or 9th, so he was getting as few ABs as possible and nowhere near the MOTO to boot.  More evidence that his own manager and the big club didn't see him as an option, because as you state his line was unchanged from 08.
But that's not predictive, just informative.  If you want more wild guessing about prospects and their assumed changes and to fill the blog-o-sphere with incorrect assumptions and unsubstantiated rumor in the name of being predictive instead of informative, I'm sure we can oblige, but I'm not sure how that helps anyone.
Nobody could say, "Clement has fixed the hole in his swing" because he hadn't, but also because very few people had access to Clement on a continual basis to monitor it.  Those of us who love and follow the minors do our best to use what we've observed (in stats or in person) across multiple seasons to inform those with less time to spend/waste about what the minors holds.  And apparently our efforts to keep people informed isn't done in a way that meets your approval.
What are you asking for?
~G

8
ghost's picture

lurking long enough to notice you've got an incredibly short temper, G. Wow. I didn't take the previous comment at all as an attack on prospect watchers in Seattle...I thought that was just supposed to be a comment on the lack of guys actually developing...he was sayiung the prospect watchers haven't actually gotten to say "this guy seems to have altered X, Y Z and that's why his stats have changed" because no one's stats ever changed. Except Adam Jones, who did suddenly start drawing a ton more walks in AAA and striking out a bit less.
The inclusion of commentary on why players' stats have changed was impossible until recently because they didn't. I thought that's what he was saying...he can correct me if I'm wrong.

9

That the Mariners were not developing many players, and the ones that did develop they did not keep.  I said as much in my original (and yes, terse) response to Sandy.
But when Sandy posts things like "the question for me is...did guys who have been following the Ms for decades suddenly get loads smarter..." then yes, I view that as an attack on those aformentioned followers of the system.  "Either you were stupid for so long it's incredible you're still breathing...or the Ms just never developed anybody so there was nothing to talk about."
Assuming that everyone who ever watched the Mariners and talked about prospects - for "decades" as Sandy says, so basically back to the dawn of the franchise - is a bunch of imbeciles and labeling that as Option A might not be the best way to start a conversation on a subject.
It offended me because Doc and Jay Yencich and Cameron and Churchill and Jon and the rest, me included, have put in a lot of time and effort to get the word out to the Seattle community on who might play for them in future years and what we get back or give up in trades.  And we also tried to have the very conversations Sandy claims we've never had, or that were completely unhelpful and were missing the boat if we did have them.
Jason Churchill is not my favorite minor league voice.  That doesn't mean I think he's an idiot who's been wasting my time until the current year as Sandy indicates was one of the two possibilities he was weighing.
I happen to find that offensive, but I do understand that mileage does vary.  I'd rather just talk baseball, I just still can't figure out what Sandy wants to talk about. 
If it's just that "wow, it's nice that the Mariners finally have started developing prospects, instead of 5-tool batters who can't hit and 6'7 pitchers who can throw 95 but can't find the zone with a GPS device and a team of bloodhounds" then I'd have been happy to cosign that notion right off the bat.
I still do.  The Mariners have sucked at player development for as long as I've been following it.  Their track record on ditching all useful players and keeping only the flops borders on intentional at this point. 
It's why I'm hoping Zduriencik is around for a while - the remodeling job he's done on our entire minor league process in just 2 years is remarkable.  I still don't know if he can put together a major league squad that can win, but with enough internal success stories he might be able to do it by default.
I'd like to find out for sure.
~G

10
ghost's picture

...and then attacking...you might just ask for clarification? Sandy didn't say "gee, I think most Mariner fans are idiots re: prospect development"...he was using that as the reducto ad absurdem, I believe. I think he was trying to say that it's UNLIKELY that Mariner minors watchers were stupid enough to miss development stories for all those years...that there must not have been many stories to tell.
Just saying I dislike the use of terms like "supercilious" and mean-sounding defensive jargon when it may not apply. If you'd confirmed that Sandy was indeed saying Mariner prospect watchers were idiots for decades...then yes...I can understand having that tone. But ask first.

11

Regardless of whether Sandy was stating what I thought he was stating, he's absolutely owed the benefit of the doubt.
Spent the last hour going over a few other posts he's made (the man is both pithy and verbose) and I think his use of reducto ad absurdem at times strikes me as a "when did you stop beating your wife?" sort of loaded question.
I think it it's an interpretation fault with me, and the reaction fault is mine as well.  I apologize, Sandy - you deserve better and you'll get it.
Thanks for the call to reason, ghost.  We'll see if we can do more baseball with less drama.
~G

12
ghost's picture

Always look forward to hearing your take on the club...and Sandy's...and the net is a hard place to judge intent. :)

13

And re-reading my comment about not getting smarter ... I can understand the misunderstanding.
I was, in fact, intending to compliment the intelligence of the prospect watchers, not impune it.  As ghost noted, the prospect watchers haven't had anything to predict, because there has been so little change in the many prospects that have flooded through the system.
My note on 'predictive' ability is not meant to suggest that prospect watchers can easily peg the next guy to morph into something better.  But, Doc has noted in various pieces over the years, (and I've seen it stated elsewhere), a science only becomes a "hard" science, when it becomes predictive.  Mendeleev wasn't brilliant for simply creating the periodic table of charts -- he turned chemistry into a PREDICTIVE science by supplying additional elements that had not been discovered at the time AND stating what their properties would be.
SABRmetrics are too tied up in human chaos to likely ever become a completely "hard" science.  But, I think it's the understood goal of most scientists that they are in search of predictive theories -- be it what the properties of gallium may be or the effect of load and stresses on static structures. 
My intended implication was -- "they aren't getting smarter, because they've always been brilliant" -- but they've not had an opportunity to actually follow "developing" players for most of a decade.  I just did a lousy job of communicating that.

14

I have to agree with Ghost.  I value tremendously the input from G, Jay, Dr. D, Sandy and the rest of the Ms blogosphere.  It seems to me that if there are two possible ways of interpreting/reading a post, and one way of reading it is completely inconsistent with the way the author has posted in the past, then we should give him the benefit of the doubt.  Sandy's been pointing out the recent dearth of Ms player development for quite a while, and in that context his post makes sense to me, and I (for one) didn't see any insulting intent.

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