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1,000 RUNS
There was a paper airplane flown in from the bleachers with a suggestion written on it in felt-tip marker: 1,000 RUNS! Which you might take as meaning (a) 1,000 runs or (b) best offense in baseball. 1,000 runs is a very lofty goal; only one team since 1950 has done it, that being Lofty's 1999 Indians which had Alomar, Manny and Thome in the MOTO. Still, that team won 97 games despite a dead-on mediocre pitching staff.
That 1999 Indians team didn't even have Joey Belle; what it did have was the older Travis Fryman, and Harold Baines, and Einar Diaz, holding up their ends (about 80 OPS+) to not ruin what the first six were doing. Do you like our chances to do that too? From Leonydas - Zuumball - ZoomByYa?
In terms of things turning out well for the 2017 Mariners... Dr. D and Matt have already Best Bet-ted the Maniger. Also like what we see from Dyson; surprisingly good swings on lefties. Segura looks totally legit. Valencia, guess we'll trust dee poet. Zuumball, will be interesting to see. Your choice would be?
Think I'd have to go with Maniger. Like we sez, the lad seems to do EVERY thing right.
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That the Mariners might have the best offense, THAT is --- > not at all farfetched. Last year, the M's were #3 in the league despite playing in Safeco, just a few runs short of #2. Also, Jean Segura is not noticeably worse at hitting than Ketel Marte.
If you missed it, here is a must-read. StatCast with five awesome things about the 2017 Playoff Mariners. DO NOT NEGLECT TO READ THAT ARTICLE. Boomstick, Speed, Diaz, Launch Angles, all verrrrrrry very ominous for the pesky rodent Angels.
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ARIEL MIRANDA IS IN THERE
The over/under on SP6 had been April 8th. Way, WAY under. So we shift to the fanview of: Big Three plus "Run Prevention Model." All these #4-10 starters have in common that they're well capable of pitching mortar shots for our CF's to run down. Particularly Miranda, who has coughed up 12 homers in 58 big league innings (1.9 homers per 9, with 1.4 being prohibitive gopheritis).
What's the case FOR Ariel Miranda? When Dipoto got him, he said "athletic, quick fastball, finish splitter, upside remaining." Here are some old-timey SSI articles on these claims:
POTD ARIEL MIRANDA 30,000-FOOT VIEW - an Aug 16 comparison to Roenis Elias
POTD MIRANDA DETAIL LEVEL - a HI, MID, and LO projection on Miranda
DIDYCEL'S DISSERTATION ON PROPRIOCEPTION - Dipoto credits Miranda with unusual coachability. Didycel earns an M.A. in his thesis on the concept.
My favorite thing about Miranda: that he has the Mark Melancon "tube" action on his fastball/changeup. Two pitches on a string, different arrival times. And yet his "out" pitch is the third pitch.
And here are all SSI articles pertaining to Elias, er, Miranda.
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DR's PROGNOSIS
So, the TOR and then the Run Prevention Model. Oddly, Miranda's promotion now has Dr. D back to watching the Gallardo game, so as to count fly balls.
BABVA,
Dr D
That no team other than that years Yankees scored 900+. Cano was probably only in a batting order with 3 other HOFers then. Maybe I was a bit over zealous calling out 1000. Nearly the same achievement at 900+ considering the Era.
Seager, Cano, Cruz, Zunino, Maniger all clear 30HR. That's the start of my thinking on it anyway. If Segura and Martin get in on the action at 20+ and somebody at 1b is in that range as well?
Serious question for you Wish, or maybe for Matt (given that you two appear to be the biggest Haniger super-fans in a blog full of them, myself included). If Haniger hits his maximum UPside, like the 30HR, 850 OPS scenario, what would you say his slash line is? I'm genuinely interested. To get to 850 does he go, say .280/.360/.490? Or does he go full PWR to the thrusters, and go .260/.325/.525?
I ask because I can't quite imagine that scenario. Not that I don't think it's possible, but that in the world where Maniger is a superstar this year, I don't yet have enough data to say what it would look like. I can visualize the OPS+ 100 LO, and the +.260, 20HR, 70RBI MID, but the "break up the Mariners" upside is eluding my mind's eye.
I don't see what, in Haniger's recent performance or hitter profile (or on field scouting) would lead me to conclude that he won't SLG 200 points higher than he hits. I also think he covers the plate very well.
The upside for the Maniger is something like .280/.360/.490 or .275/.350/.500 (somewhere in that belt)
I've basically likened him to Kyle Seager but fast, in terms of what his bat could wind up looking like.
Thanks Matt! Faster Kyle Seager, now that I can imagine. I wonder if he ends up following Seager's general career path, too? Seager's OPS+ numbers (after the 2011 cup of coffee) were roughly Year one 110, Y2 120, Y3 125, Y4 115, Y5 135. My best guess for Haniger would have him following a trendline something like that, maybe with year four thrown out. Maybe he skips year one too: sounds like the consensus here is that he'll be closer to a 120 than a 110.
Last year's Kyle Seager, but with awesome rightfield defense, plus baserunning and 20SB? That is... a very good ballplayer. Better than any of the current MOTO Big Three. Possibly an MVP candidate. Exciting times we live in.
The worst I cam see Haniger doing is 2012 Saunders. The best is 2016 Seager with speed. The most likely outcome roughly splits the difference.
so you don't have to look it up...
Saunders played in 139 games, with splits of .247/.306/.432/.738 with 31 doubles, 19 HR's, 21 SB's, and 57 RBI's
A funny coincidence, Seager also had an OPS of .738 in 2012... .256/.316/.423/.738 with 35 doubles, 20 HR's, 13 SB's and 86 RBI's.
I'll take either of those 2012 stat lines right now for Maniger for his first full year.
Saunders posted that 2012 line BEFORE he figured out pretty much the same swing mechanic change that Haniger just figured out last year - while having gotten himself hurt in the middle of the year, and while fanning at a rate far higher throughout his minor league career than Haniger ever has or likely ever will.
Oh...and Saunders' hitting coach wasn't even on the team...the team's hitting coach was a wet sock. Haniger's coach is EDGAR. Just saying.
That is the absolute worst case scenario barring injury, IMHO.
The split difference between 2016 Seager with wheels and Saunders would be an .800 OPS star with 30 doubles, 25 dingers, 20 steals, + defense in right, and a whole lot of cool points.
Just after the prior regimes, I'm setting my own bar for M's prospects at a very achieveable level
.350 hitter for the Mariners. Why not Maniger?
And I thought I was high on the Maniger.
I don't think Haniger is a +++ hit tool like Ichiro. I think he covers the plate mansomely and uses the whole field. I think, once he's seen enough MLB pitching, he might break .300 some year...but I'm gonna be pretty surprised if he hits better than .280 in 2017...especially given his home park tends to kill fly balls and he's a fly ball hitter.
He also hasn't traditionally walked a ton in the minors...some, yes, but not 100+ points of patience...I don't see him as having Shin-Soo Choo's enhanced walk-taking skills or .300 OBP likelihood.
If he's going to hit .900, he's going to do it by hitting for a lot of power and hitting the ball hard enough to bat .300. Not impossible...but unlikely in year one.
Partially for comedy. I mean Edgar and Arod each did it once here, then Ichiro 4 times. That's all.
My more reasonable take is a few down the page. I think he'll spend his career in .270-.310 BA range, 80 points of patience peaking maybe a few years of 100 but can slug well over .500 for several years. Were probably about the same there. I think it's possible his hit tool brings him some peak years over .320 because of the contact and zone judgement he's always shown with lower K rates and such. He's about 2 years into his swing. This year I'd hope .340 OBP .480 SLG minimum which is only .820. Not particularly concerned with BA otherwise anyway.
It sounds like I'm saying he'll be better than ever with some of the things I'm saying.
If you put the weight on what he did in the minors after his first off-season with his reworking? 548 PA of .321/.419/.581. .999 OPS, 69 BB/99K.
Your call on Seager? He was 2 years younger when he split AA/AAA with 416 PA of 37 BB/50K.333/.399/.495 an .894 OPS. Pretty comparable I'd say, less hit for Mitch but a bit more pop and the speed potentially adding some additional SLG. Just the age difference makes it uncomfortable but .105 OPS fills the gap. 100 points of patience vs 66, partially age but I think it could also be development.
If his slugging is up his OBP will be too and his legs will help that some over most sluggers.
Only difference is I can't see saying that .850 is max. Is .290/.380/.520 impossible? That's only .900 and he's looked like more to me. I'd say .340 OBP or better and his SLG% should be around .140-.170 above his OBP. My call on ceiling might be .310/.430/.570, though not likely. Not for a couple years.
How high am I on him? Double entendre?
WOW. There is a serious arms race on the Haniger hype train! If you're right, the Walker trade could go down as one of your all-time great cases of highway robbery: an All-Star and a young HOFer for a pitching prospect on his way towards flaming out into mediocrity.
As a Mariners fan who never saw the late 90s teams, I literally don't know how to calibrate the idea of Haniger turning into Paul Goldschmit, RF a few years from now. Dustin Ackley didn't pan out, and that was the most sure I've ever been that a prospect was going to be a superstar. I will be giggling for months on end if it happens with Hanny.
and his OBP goes up which also affects SLG. Then the singles he turns to doubles and doubles he turns to triples adds more SLG. If Seager last year had Haniger speed he likely clears .900 OPS.
if everything breaks the Ms way. Starting with a 5-3 Killing of Keuchel Monday :- )
very odd, how Miranda's promotion kinda gave me back my TV viewing of Gallardo ... resigned myself to watching the D try to pull it out ...
That's the best I can make due as well. Enjoy how the offense even outscores whatever Yovani spots 'em? Yeah. 9 and 12 run outbursts can cover up much of that, hopefully enough. Still, if it goes that way the change should be made.
8 heroes trying to offensively and defensively overwhelm whatever the SP gave away that day.
Sparky earned the first nickname Captain Hook because any lead after the fifth here came the bullpen –
Heredia, Overton, Pazos are all on the 25 man as of an hour ago.
8 man bullpen.
Diaz, Altavilla, Fien, Vincent, Pazos, Overton, Scribner, and Zrep... 3 lefties in the pen!!! With Miranda and Paxton in Rotation, this may be the most lefties on the 25 man ever.
somebody have a quote that spells out the logic?
Over at LL they have a graph showing the biggest velocity gainers of the spring and Overton led them all. Averaged 91.5 in spring, up 2.3 mph from last year. He had himself a great spring and was rewarded for it. I'm all for it. Plus if he stinks its not like he has to be there long.
No doubt Kiekhefer has pitched well... but who do you kick off the 40 man to put him on?Dipoto is not in the habit of throwing away players yet.
Maybe Dipoto could DFA Tuffy, but fairly common to have 3 C's on 40 man just in case of minor injury.
Possible to throw Smyly on 60 day DL, but that may be the move in order to add Powell on the 40 man in a week or so.
It will be interesting to see if Overton is replaced the 4 days he is away with wife during child birth next week... or if this is really a 7 man bullpen afterall.
werent we discussing Overton as an SP candidate? Maybe this is his trial by fire. Maybe Gallardo flames out, and Overton just starts throwing a little longer...
Thanks for the link, Doc, and the added encouragement to check it out.
's funny, with all the shiny new toys, I sometimes forget Martin's speed and defensive capabilities. Him and Dyson both patrolling the outfield? Enjoy watching those fly balls.
Don't know how official the 25 man on the Mariners website is. The right-handed outfielder seemed pretty forced though .
over under on SP6 had been April 8 - is that the new over under for SP7?
Injury bug has already hit. Statistically it's not all that great a change in likelihood; the dice thrown is an independent event.
Or is it? Smyly's health was a part of that calculation. Neither hypothetically-healthy-Smyly nor Miranda are huge bets in my mind for imminent implosion, and Miranda's health doesn't worry me. So all else being equal, I'd set the line back a few days at least... April 12th/13th, maybe? (Not too far... we do still have Paxton to worry about, AMIRITE *ducks*)
Great link to the Statcast article. I didn't realize how fast Martin is -- a full 2/10ths faster to 1st base than Dyson!!?? Was that wind-aided? This is going to be a very fun outfield to watch, never mind base-running and infield singles.
Also, Ichiro #5 fastest to 1st base. Amazing. Wonder where he would rank if they age-adjusted the results.
For those who missed it, here's the link. It's in a fun-to-scan format.
Lampoon is talking about one specific run that Leonydas achieved, apparently front-arming the ball while breaking out of the batter's box. Quite amazing too that Ichiro can still make a top-5 scamper of 2016 at the age of 42. What is he not doing on Dipoto's roster? :- )
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I also like the "4-star plays" off StatCast. Fangraphs' "Inside Edge Fielding" gives this for each player -- number of Impossible plays, Remote, etc., but StatCast has the avante garde metrics.
M's will need 2-3 of these plays per game on days 4 and 5 ...
Are Arkansas AA starters Moore, Povse, and Unsworth a new Big 3?
...not some bad depth. Let's hope this Big Three returns stronger results... that said, was always were hoping for the set to turn into (statistically) Star/Average Joe/flameout. Ding-ding-ding! (more or less). Actually, we one-upped that with the Taijuan trade... didn't we?!
Are quite as highly touted. Unsworth doesn't seem to have the upside of any of the original. 8 years in the minors for him, while the original big 3 were looking at 2-3 or less when anointed. granted they had already had up to 1 and change years at that point. Unsworth could very easily get transitioned to bullpen duty. 2 pitchers that would better fit a group like that were recently traded away though. Neidert is yet another, about the same level Walker was at the time.
Considering what's come of the original Big 3 I am not in any hurry to anoint new ones. Paxton may be pretty much up to expectations but Hultzen gave up and Tai has still only shown glimpses more than 5 years years later. I guess since he helped bring in Segura and Maniger I can't act like he's done nothing.
Having less expected of them doesn't mean Moore, Povse and Unsworth can't outproduce the big 3 though.
It seems to me that the question about Paxton/Walker, as they came up, was whether they would be dominant, heat-throwing #1's, not whether they would get guys out while healthy.
The Moore/Povse question is a bit different. It isn't whether they will be #1's, but whether they will be #3's or just #5's?
I'm bidding the Over on both of them. Just to point out, Povse has run a 1.16 WHIP in 3 MiLB seasons and Moore's in 1.08 in 2. They get guys out. Both have classy control and have a swervy FB with more pop than it looks.
If we just put one in the rotation right now, instead of Gallardo, we wouldn't miss a beat.
One of the interesting things about the last roster moves was that both Tyler Smith and Mike Freeman were in the final group sent out. I think we were waiting for the news on Smyly. My read is that, with a healthy Smyly, we were keepingone of those gusy on the roster, which would have necessitated a 40-Man move.
8-Man bullpens keep you pretty short on the field positions. Soon as O'Malley clears the DL, we will go back to a more traditional aliugnment.
...Nick Franklin is DFA'd by the Rays. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/04/rays-designate-nick-franklin-for-...
Whatever plusses and minuses Austin Jackson provided along the way, I don't think the M's lost out much here. Also interesting to note that this deal was the one that got Smyly originally on the move...
Hey, fellas. Long-time, on again off again lurker. 740. That's the Fangraphs projection for Mariners run-scoring. Y'all have certainly made the case for taking the over and I'll agree. Among other things that should temper our expectations (i.e. expecting the best offensive output in forever): Martin is not a great hitter who has a new stance he's still uncomfortable with...Cano/Cruz are older, we can't expect them to continue to defy age regression that has effected every post-Bonds hitter...Dyson is likely to be OBP deficient (note: I, for one, am glad he's starting off at 9 instead of 1). That's just a few pessimistic takes for ya. *wink* Other than that, let's roll!
So if Martin is FASTER than Dyson to 1B and is one of the fastest players in the league.....how does he not steal more bases?
Does that mean that Dyson is going to teach Martin how to steal bases this year? Will we end up with 2 Dysons on the bases this year?!?
Actually that would make a good separate topic ...