.
The deal was actually for 3 x $20M, and then a 4th year at $5M (cut) or $25M (makes club). We will call that the equivalent of 3/$21M and then a 4th year at $2M/$25M. Which is dead-on exactly what Fangraphs' crowd estimated, and dead-on exactly what Dave Cameron the FG editor estimated -- except for one thing. Encarnacion got only 3 years instead of 4, a big win for Cleveland. Which incidentally moved ahead of Boston, on paper, as the AL favorite next year.
Minor observation: if Jean Segura had "signed" for only 2 years, that would be taken as a huge win for the Mariners. Of course he's playing for peanuts, and he came with Mitch Haniger into the bargain, which we'll cancel the fractions on the trade package outgoing...
Here is Fangraphs' top 50 free agents with estimated salaries this winter. If you scan down the list, you'll probably --- > be disquieted. If you're looking to make the Mariners a better team in the free agent market. But here are a couple of observations off Fangraphs' triangulations:
(1) Jose Bautista is listed as the #5 free agent available, due to haul in 3 x $25 and a club option ... or more than $25M on a two-year deal. !!
(2) Kenley Jansen is slated for 5 x $17M. You wouldn't even see Taro's hand move; you'd just see the signature appear on the contract.
(3) Jason Hammel is hurt. According the Cubs. Not their words, their actions.
(4) Steve Pearce used to be a thang, and he batted .300/.375/.500* last year in part time play, and now he is apparently a big pile of somethin' brown and unpleasant. I don't get it.
...
You're more likely to get Jean Segura in the trade market. Which brings us to another subject, one cubicle to your right.
I think Encarnacion only getting 3 guaranteed years knocks Jose Bautistas expectations down to a 2 year plus an option type of contract.
My guesstimate is Bautista lands at 2 years @ $17.5 million + an option.
In my book, I'd like my team to be the one signing him, if the alternative is the underwhelming Ben Gamel.
I'd like to get Joey Bats if the price is a two year commitment with a buyout or vesting option and < 20 M per
I think he will wait it out for a bit to see if a team decides it has a need, but otherwise, he might be the guy left standing when the music stops...maybe you can get him for an opt-out contract (1 year guarantee, player options or mutual options with opt out) so he can wait for a more lucrative market.
I was shocked at the price of elite releivers, but the market all around is just WAY down. Ivan Nova at 3/$21 as well. It makes the Rzepcynski signing look really bad in context.
The best players are going for far less than in recent markets.
Its wierd, usually you'd figure less supply, more demand, but the opposite has happened.
more money is being spent on free agency as the years go by...teams have decided, however, that committing too much to one guy is dangerous and carries a significant downside value drain. The result: relievers are making much more, benchies are making an order of magnitude more in many cases, skill position guys who either hit and don't field or field and don't hit are making much more than they used to...but superstars' salaries have stalled and their contract lengths are dropping.
Seems more like a short-term market depression. It makes star/above-average players FAR more value friendly than role players. Makes absolutely no sense to sign a role player in this market, you may as well pay a little extra for a much more valuable and "economically reasonable" player.
The $5.5mil for 2 years to Rzepcynski looks especially bad when a 2nd half breakout upside SP like Nova makes $7mil per year over 3 years. OR you pay $10mil more per year and you get Chapman ($17 per).
Signing a role/bottom tier player makes ZERO sense right now. The better players are far better value for the money.
I never lose interest in Shandler's BPV (base performance value), because it removes all context and just focuses on 'raw skill'. In other words, relievers aren't discounted if they're setup guys, and never record a save. Hitters aren't penalized because their platoon splits dictate they'll never face a righty or a lefty. At the moments they do toe the rubber or step into the box, what are you looking at?
Projections for this year put Pearce as the fifth best hitter in baseball (sandwiched between Trout and Donaldson). Of course, you'd never draft him like that in roto, because he's only going to get 300 ABs. And at 34, he's no dynasty play.
But that's what the Blue Jays bought for $6m@.