And sometimes, you’ll get it wrong. Sometimes, the Josh Hamilton signing might not work out.But if you don’t try, you don’t win. Looking at the Mariners right now, I see some potentially good young players, but no top-tier elite star like a Posey. No break-out performer who can help catapult this team to where it needs to be.So, you either spend some big money this winter — which the Mariners do have sitting in their coffers — or you get better trade results than you have. Draft-wise? That might tack a few more years on to this rebuilding plan at this stage.
So, every year in which Bavasi has been a GM, his club has had the fourth or fifth-highest payroll of the 14 AL teams. The only other AL clubs that can say that? Those would be the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels. How many rebuilding phases have those teams been involved in over the same time period? Exactly.
1) Designating Montero as starting catcher when his defense clearly was inadequate2) Trading Jaso for Montero - Jaso should have been retained to bolster the catching position, and Morse was a disaster3) Pursuit of Hamilton - thank goodness Moreno bailed GMZ out4) Attempted trade for J Upton - GMZ gave way too much and J-Up saved GMZ's job5) Signing Ibanez and letting Carp go - yes, Rauuul had a marvelous 6 weeks, but Carp is more versatile, younger, cheaper, and can help in the future.
| Lineup | Rotation | Pen |
| RH SS Taylor | RH Felix | 6 or 7 guys who can get outs |
| LH 2B Miller | RH Iwakuma | |
| LH 3B Seager | RH Shields | |
| RH RF Stanton | LH Hultzen | |
| SH DH Morales | RH Erasmo | |
| LH CF Saunders | ||
| SH 1B Smoak | ||
| RH C Zunino | ||
| LH LF Ackley |
We can also buy talent from Japan or CUBA... like Jose Abreu! Right handed. Similar power as Puig. Better batting average and on base average than both Puig, Morales and Cespedes. I think we can afford to take the risk to spend BIG dollars on Abreu based on the rapid and easy success these other players.
M's Fun Facts: After the M's loss to KC tonight, 2013 M's vs the 2012 M's--
1) 2013 Mariners: 62-76 RS 535, RA 639 (diff -104)
2) 2012 Mariners: 67-71 RS 526, RA 535 (diff -9)
Offense's ability to score runs not improved in 2013; run prevention much worse than 2012. M's are 3-9 since Wedgie's return, playing listless baseball with only victories over hapless Astros. 2013 M's are 10-6 against the Lastros, who were not scheduled last year; and the Angels have played poorly this year versus playing well last year.
So 2013, relative to 2012, is even worse than the W-L record indicates.
Sure looks like a team in reverse to me. Time for new management - from the top all the way down to the Field Leaders. I can't see how anyone can make a case for another year of the L&A / GMZ / Wedgie tag team of ineptitude.
I'll call this my fallback plan, Gordon. :) I also like Rainman's idea of hitting up Cuba again. Our luck though, we'll get another Yuni Betancourt.
:-)
The problem with the Mariners has never been the field level managers. It has always been the top-down vision. Unless and until that changes, I personally don't care who they put in as manager.
I like Z. I hate the Fister trade. But on balance, I like his eye for talent. I like his steady personality. I like his willingness to change directions and try to find something that works. That show the ability to adapt (or at least the ability to self-assess). If he has to go, fine. But again, I don't care about any of that as long as Lincoln and Armstrong are in place. They've been around long enough to prove their (lack of) worth in terms of contending baseball.
The Ms are 4 wins over their Pythag expectations. Part of that is because they lose blowouts, but with our terrible pitching performances we could have been worse this year. But can you fix pitching in one year?
The Royals are on pace for their worse offensive output in 20 years - and their second winning record in that period of time too. They're gonna cut about 150 runs off their runs-against in one season. The Pirates had the following drop in runs-against the last 4 years: 866, 712, 674, 565 (pro-rated). So they too cut their runs-against by a bundle.
We actually aren't that bad. We're on pace for 750 runs-against, while scoring 630. The Indians have 690 RA and are competing fine (because their offense is scoring ~720 runs this year - again, not an obscene amount).
I guess when I look at how far out of the Wild Card chase we are, it doesn't feel like an insurmountable hill. I want that free-agent third starter so we have three really good shots to break a losing streak, and then we're just looking for talented kids to fill out the back end - and we have several of those. Noesi and Beavan are on the trash heap, but Hultzen, Paxton, Walker and Erasmo are all really talented kids, and Maurer still isn't nothing, he just isn't ready at 22. Neither was Chris Tillman, who took four years to figure it out for Baltimore. We also have a half-dozen really interesting pitchers in the lower minors who are making that climb to AA over the next year or two. Arms, we have. Are they enough to make the jump to competitor with the offense we have?
The Indians were two games under .500 a couple of years ago. They went backwards in a big way last year. They fired Acta, replaced him with Francona, and are in the WC chase now (going from 26 games under .500 last year to 8 over this year). But they hovered in the Weird Zone for several years when you'd think they'd get over the hump and didn't. Antonetti pulled the right strings, got the right manager, and even if all his moves haven't worked out perfectly (Bourn is making $12 mil for his .660 OPS, Swish has 46 RBIs and a .730 OPS as a MOTO hitter) they still have enough momentum on offense to overcome.
-------------------
Do we? The Mariners got serious about playing their uber-talented kids in June. Franklin got called up at the end of May, Zunino in the middle of June, and Miller by the end of the month. None of those guys is lighting the world on fire, but they did stabilize the lineup. Since Miller came up to finish the trifecta, we played .500 ball until September (lost the first 3 to put us 3 games under for his time with us).
Is 2 months of .500 ball enough to feel good about ourselves? Probably not. Should we be cheered by the fact that our worst pitchers are not gonna be here but our best pitchers will be? Maybe some.
It may be that Wedge cannot lead this team anywhere. I'm not his biggest fan, but I don't think he's the worst manager either. Same with Zduriencik - not the best GM, but not the worst. Unlike Wedge, Jack seems to have one very good and notable skill. Can Jack's one skill and Wedge's overall "meh" ness get us to the playoffs? Oakland's GM has one skill (finding under-valued players to fill our a roster hampered by a hard salary cap) and his manager is pretty "meh." They do pretty well.
Maybe they aren't the guys to take us to the promised land, but I still feel worlds better about the 2014-18 Ms than I felt about the future in 2008. With the black holes patched at last, it feels like a couple of players and some luck get us back to being interesting for the whole year.
That could very well not be the truth, but it does feel that way to me. Maybe we need a new manager to help in the process, or a new GM to finish the roster and use all these kids in trades to their best profit. But even if we don't get that new GM and manager I don't feel like the Ms are hopeless. They actually feel very hopeFUL to me.
~G
Cuban Hitter Disease (tm) is a real thing. The number of guys who have gone through their system and then on to fame state-side is... small. Cespedes can't post a .300 OBP this year, and is VERY average. Not a guy to drive the offense, though he can do impressive things when he makes contact. Morales was playing state-side at 22, so he might have avoided the brunt of the trouble most Cuban hitters run into. Puig is a complete punk, but again, he's 22 right now. He got out early.
Jose Abreu is a better hitter than Cespedes, and also in his prime. I was leery of Cespedes but I would take Abreu for the same price and run down the street laughing in delight. So the question is what price are we willing to pay to find out if the dude is Joey Votto? The other question: would you fire Smoak (who plays better D) or just not re-sign Morales at DH and put a different Cuban in his place?
~G
See what you can do to make that happen :)
1. Agree that nixing big bucks for middling players (no more Washburn/Silva deals) is by design
2. I think they want to add a major star for big bucks, but have been turned down (except by their own guys)
3. I can't imagine they were counting on having so many "mid-majors" pay off (Seager, Miller, Walker, Franklin, etc.) but when you've got the guys, and they're better than what you can get on the market, and other teams won't offer fair value for them, then you don't have much choice but to play them and see how it comes out
I think it's a good sign that they haven't pressured Z into "Washburn" contracts or "Choo" trades, and they're willing to take some lumps to adapt to the flow.
Morse didn't work out as hoped, but within the constraints of "no Washburn contracts" and "not sell prospects for way below value" he was what was out there.
I keep trying to remind people that league-average ISO is around 145-150. I don't know how you win if your lineup has eight or nine guys every night who are below league average. They needed someone like Morse.
If I could, I would sign Morales to a one year deal like the QO, sign Abreu to a multi year deal like 4 year $60M with an option year, and keep Smoak.
For one year, we can rotate all three - especially since Smoak still has an option left.
Until Smoak can hit lefties, and really has somewhat of a consistent success on both sides of the plate... I need viable immediate options on hand.
It was starting to work, but ...
Zunino got hurt
Franklin hot/Ackley deathly cold ... then
Ackley hot/Franklin deathly cold
Morse got hurt and cratered
Ibanez cratered
And healthy Erasmo and healthy Hultzen would have added a bunch of stability over the Harang/Bonderman crowd.
Do you realize what a machine Hultzen was in his 30 innings of actual pitching? (0.8 WHIP, 42 K, 7 BB)
I can't see a difference worth complaining about in regards to many of the moves that are scrutinized from this offseason. Look at any build idea online a year later and there's usually a bigger discrepancy. Sometimes players break out, sometimes they fall off a cliff. Hamilton and Swisher were the biggest lightning rods during the offseason that probably 90+% of us wanted one or both. Big blog included. It appears we were all wrong.
Going into the offseason Zunino was already looking like a high probability chance to stabilize catcher very soon. Jaso could have stayed, but you have to give up talent to get talent. If it was Jaso or a list like what Oakland gave I'd give up Jaso almost every time. Shoppach seems a lot more debatable to me.
With Morse at least there's no Hamilton or Swisher contract killing our future offseason adding potential. Any of the 3 would have been viewed as failures at this point so it seems Zdurienciks acquisition was better than our ideas. If you wanted Hamilton or Swisher, how can you complain about Morse? At least the biggest reason he didn't work out was because of injury, try giving Cleveland or Anaheim a tidy answer on their failure. Certainly Morse's health was a concern going in, which is why he was so cheap. There was much more possibility to get much more than paid for there than at going rate FA pricing.
I'm slipping to the other side of the fence on Stanton. 2 years left and we have to give up 12+years of top Prospects plus more? Walker is elite too, if I'm including him he's the only thing I'm including. Stanton is a salary acquisition at this point too. He checks off almost all the boxes [0 3+years remaining] but isn't worth to me what he was last year.
Moving forward with Zduriencik seems like the best course to me. Think of him like John Mcagraw, elite at the most important part of the game [not making outs/drafting] even if his other skills appear much more average. I want him to keep getting on base at an elite rate for us, and bring in some help to drive in those runners. Gillick in some role or an attempt to find similar makes more sense to me than starting over or trying to find a new GM but not letting them touch MiL scouting like McNamara to try to have our cake and eat it too. That's a situation that hasn't seemed to work well in the past. I'm hopeful that plan A can work this year and Zduriencik can actually spend some money for once to acquire better talent. There are more free agents this year that I'd be excited about than there were last year anyway. Glad the money is still there.
"Whatever mistakes might have been made, we’re a pitcher and a bat from contention, IMO." That's where I'm at too which keeps me thinking "maybe Stanton, even in an overpay". Otherwise I'd not even consider him at this point.
OPS+ was 104 before Wedge came back, but is still at 99.
ERA+ is at 85 ... only Houston and Toronto are worse.
The problem with THIS team is pitching and has been pitching all year. It *IS* possible to compete with a 100 OPS+.
It is NOT possible to compete with an ERA+ of 85.
The 2013 offense went from 89 OPS+ to 99 OPS+. The problem was NOT the moves Z made on offense OR lack of trading or FA acquisition acumen. The problem was the offensive hole was REALLY deep, and is only now nearing decent.
The 2013 problem has been and continues to be having 2 decent pitchers TOTAL.
The injuries to Hultzen and Erasmo obviously set back the pitching - but NOBODY saw the complete implosion of the bullpen coming, and unlike the offense, which started slow and got better, the pitching started slow and got worse.
When in your entire bullpen, you have only two pitchers with an ERA+ over 100 ... (and one of those is walking 5 guys per 9 - and he has the BEST ERA+ in the pen), your bullpen is a complete trainwreck from one end to the other.
I don't have a good explanation for why the bullpen was successful in 2012 and a disaster in 2013 (with many of the same arms returning). But, the end result is exactly why this team is more than a dozen games under .500, instead of near it.
(Spec -- the current team ISO is ... 151 (.392 - .241). Seattle is just a hair OVER league average).
OBP, however, they are at .307 ... ahead of only Houston and the ChiSox.
You want to win in 2014 ... the focus *HAS* to be on pitching. In 2012, the pitching was average (99 ERA+). This year it has has been horrid. Felix and Kuma give the club 400 good innings. That means they only need to find 1000 more decent innings between now and next season.
Sandy is right. Blown saves and the like can demoralize a team. This team could really benefit from having a relief ace. Any ideas who the M's could add to seriously bolster the pen?
That's why they needed Morales, Morse and Ibanez. But not just that, they needed to help Smoak and Ackley relax away from the notion that they needed to try to produce .200 ISO, which had taken them out of their game.
ISO is up to average this year because, for the most part, they accomplished that. Morse didn't end up doing much of it, but he wasn't a bad bet.
We can't go backward with offense, but if we could post just this amount we could still be contenders - given enough pitching. Add a Shields or a Lee to this staff, let 3 or 4 kids fight it out for the last 2 rotation spots (and by kids I mean the Hultzen/Paxton kind, not the Beavan/Noesi kind), and then get a bullpen that can hold leads. We have all the money in the world available to make this happen.
You'd think we have the pieces for it. Farquhar, Wilhelmsen, Pryor, Capps, Smith, Burgoon, Moran, LaFromboise, Medina, Furbush, Ruffin... we can get 6 guys out of that bunch of 95 mph death-hurlers and lefty-killers, wouldn't you think?
I'm okay with an addition or two from outside the org, too...
~G
Increase in OPS+ from 89 in 2012 to 99 in 2013 has not resulted in increased run production. M's have only scored 9 more runs this year than last, and are tied with the Lastros for next-to-last in the AL in runs scored. So, despite the increase in OPS+, the M's still have a run-scoring problem. Maybe the boppers brought in by GMZ/Wedgie are, in fact, cloggers -- who need to be replaced (per the new Wedgie advanced paradigm on roster construction).
All the offensive numbers are up from last season, except one: Mariners stole 104 bases last season, and only 40 this season. Pro-rated, the M's were stealing bases at twice the rate last season than this. They were gettiing caught less often as well: 2012 had a 74% success rate, in 2013 it's a 69% success rate. I think the lack of offensive production is largely due to bad baserunning. Still the Mariners are scoring 3.87 runs per game this season vs. 3.82 last season. Also, last season the M's ground into 96 DPs. Already this season they've GIDP 108 times.
Always nice when you can hit better when it can do damage; I don't care how slow the base-cloggers are if you ain't hitting when they're standing at second anyway.
2013 Indians RISP: .256/.332./417/.749, .290 BABIP2013 Indians empty: .241/.310/.389/.699, .292 BABIP
We OPSed .699 total (.241/.307/.392, exactly what the Indians totaled with empty bags) but we were worse with RISP.
2013 Mariners RISP: .231/.311/.375/.686, .280 BABIP (.616 OPS with 2 outs, RISP). Just no “clutch” RBIs. That whole disappearing-Smoak thing probably comes into play here, but a lot of guys failed in those situations.
We did great with a guy on on first base (.747 OPS), but couldn’t get it done when guys advanced bases.
Our Kryptonite lefty problem hurt us too. We OPSed .723 against righties but just .653 against lefties (Cleveland was .720 vs RHP and .745 vs LHP). Our right-handed bats posted a .610 OPS this year. Like I said, I understand the Upton pursuit. Gotta get a little more balance in the lineup, and hope they plate a few more runners when they get a chance next year. If it is a base-clogger thing, though, then at least our dirt-slow catchers and the statue that resembled Mike Morse won't be doing their part in the clogging next year. :)
~G
One of a GM's core skill requirements is roster construction. In building the 2013 roster, GMZ sacrificed pitching / defense / OBP skills for dingers:
1) Jaso for Morse, trading one defensively challenged player for another, but trading OBP for dingers
2) Vargas for Morales, trading pitching for dingers, but getting a league leader in GIDPs with 19 & a terrible base runner
3) Signing FA Rauuuul for OF duty, where he is league worst
M's are fourth in the AL in dingers but RPG is essentially unchanged as stolen bases have declined preciptiously & GIDP have increased substantially. ( Batting average with RISP is below even the Lastros, but it is my understanding that this is random.)
Pitching & defense have declined substantially. The upshot: runs allowed have increased from 3.87 in 2012 at this point in the season to 4.62 in 2013. So the boppers/cloggers/poor defenders have added essentially no net run prodution while contributing to the increase in runs allowed.
Looks to me like a poor job of roster construction in 2013. I, along with G. Baker, eagerly await the news conference when L & A officially announce GMZ's extension and explain the reasons therefore.
A GM's responsibility is to acquire talent, by hook/crook/draft/trade or FA, that will allow a team to compete. In general, Z has done that. He's built much of a team that is ready. For next year, we're set at C, 3B, and probably SS and 2B, too. We're set at 2/3 of a 1B. Saunders/Ackley/Almonte give us 3 OF's, of the 4 we need. We're short a DH (Morales, perhaps) and a RH crashing bat in the OF. We have cash to spend. Oh...a FA starter and RP would be nice.
We're in the ballpark, talent-wise, with the ability to buy more...without giving a way our young talent.
Z needs to get one FA pickup just right. A bat for MOTO. He should look for an arm, too. Luck would help the rest = Stars and Scrubs.
I'm not ready to boot him. Not yet. But I would like to know what his 'plan" looks like, if I'm the guy writing the checks.
I have not seen Wedge turn this group into anything more than they would have been with Wak/Brownie/HoJo/or Raul in the dugout. I have not consistently seen Wedge "steal" games, turning losses into wins. He's had 3 years. We are not significantly better.
I know he's a former AL Manager of the Year. Have you checked out that Cleveland '07 team? His #1-2 starters gave him 456 innings of 143 ERA+/1.16 WHIP ball. his 3-4 guys tossed 344 innings of 100+ ERA+. His two top relievers gave him 140 innings of 290 EAR+ (!)/.8 WHIP effort.
Martinez, Sizemore, Garko and Hafner mashed. Peralta and Blake were a very nice left side of the IF.
Winning wasn't very hard with those guys, folks.
'05 was similar.
It is possible he motivated/coached/Sarged/managered those guys to those performances. If so, he hasn't shown any of that in Seattle.
What he's shown is the ability to say, "Our young guys need to learn to win!"
I'm ready for a new line.
And given the choice, If Z must go to see Wedge out the door, too.....then pink slipping both is better than keeping both.
I don't follow the day-to-day Mariner scribes often, but I haven't seen much talk from the players that translates to, "We've got the Sarge's back."
I haven't been a Wedge critic this year. But it is time for a change.
I wish him well.
In Z's defense, although the fill-in guys have been bad, Taylor, Hicks, Almonte (Abe) and Kivlehan have been amongst the best baserunners at their respective positions in the minor leagues. Maybe help is coming?
I don't think replacing Z puts us ahead in any way. We need an activist leadership in the FO to support JackZ and TomMac - as the Indians do teaming Shapiro with Antonetti - let one guy run the roster and the other help plan the future and support the day-to-day decisions, but not make them. A Walt Jocketty or Pat Gillick in the team control seat, like with Nolan Ryan, Theo Epstein, and Stan Kasten, would make Z more effective and allow the team to do the things necessary to win. Armstrong's contribution seems to be to kibitz or threaten "you'd better be right!" or take away some of Z's authority at critical times. How about someone who would (and could) help him use it instead?
As to Wedge, if they can find a graceful way to move him to special assistant, and bring in some one with enthusiasm for the task who can get the young guys more at ease, I'd certainly be all for it. The team plays "tired" and "tight", but I would think a firing would be more traumatic and counter-productive at this point. But if Z is on the hot seat, you won't get an established guy to come in. The Ms would need to look at guys aching for a shot - Joey Cora, Joe McEwing, Matt Williams, Dave Brundage, Brad Ausmus, Tim Bogar, Jose Oquendo, Dave Miley, Barry Larkin - there's quite a few out there that look like they might bring the intelligence and fire needed. I'd put McEwing, Williams, and Ausmus at the top of the list as guys who could do a Girardi and take a young team up. At this point, even swapping Ted Simmons and Wedge might kick start something if he's been involved helping Z with the roster as rumored! Remember how Jack McKeon did with a young, talented team that he was very familiar with? But the field leadership does need to change, in my view, to make the next plateau leap.
Before signing any FAs, except for Abreu if we can't re-sign Morales, I'd try trading first - we've still got an abundance of good prospects who can't all play for the Ms. If I could trade for two guys, they'd be Lee and Stanton. Lee would give us a lefty with authority to let Hultzen and/or Paxton have time to settle in. If Paxton does well in his September trial, and/or Hultzen is lights out in the AFL, and/or Lee is too pricey, then signing Shields would give a good #3, if we can maintain balance in the rotation with at least one good LH. As for Stanton, he's two worlds at once - a 4-year veteran who knows how it works, yet only a few weeks older than Hultzen and Montero! If it took Ackley or Franklin or Miller (sounds like Dietrich burned bridges along with burning Tino), Walker or Hultzen or Erasmo (with their prospects coming they may want Erasmo; with proven value and able to share the load with Fernandez but still cheap), Romero or Kivlehan (they still need a 3B), and 2 more somebodies like Montero (1B for Miami?) or Pike or Taylor or Morban or Guerrero, it'd be worth it; and we'd still have the alternates above and Peterson, Wilson, Unsworth, Sanchez, Diaz, et al, coming right behind. If you look at Stanton at #3 with Almonte (though he's probably a 4th OF) or Miller at leadoff and Seager at #2 and Morales OR Abreu as a DH, with the rest of those we have - it starts to look both formidable and balanced - and a lot of fun! And yet no position player would be over 27! And Abreu is only 27 as well, so his signing could lead to an historically young and talented lineup supporting in Felix, Lee, 'Kuma, Hultzen, and Walker an historically talented and balanced rotation.
It's fun to dream - and, for all the frustration, the young Ms are giving us something to dream about!
Luke Gregerson of the Padres is arb eligible 1 more year, but might get expensive for the Padres - might be worth seeing if we can offer something for him. He'll be 30 next year, but has been good for a while, and could be next year's Perez (vet in the pen) along with Pryor, Capps, Wilhelmsen, Farquhar, CSmith, Leone, Medina, Ruffin, Moran, Furbush, Bawcom et al. We should be able to find 6 to go with him.
Simmons would be interesting. One would think that he would be a heck of a manager for Zunino. I think I would prefer Scioscia or a young gun but Simmons would be intriguing.
Bat ... you're ideas are needed over at Safeco!!!
At what point will Wedge figure out his style is not working, and especially since he came back - Wedge is hurting this team versus helping it. Just because Raul is still on the team, that does not mean he has to start multiple games a week in the outfield... or will Wedge's usage of Brendan, Olivo and etc in the past...
And by the way, welcome to the Jose Abreu to Safeco Fan Club!!!
I'd love to see Scioscia in charge with the Ms, but: 1) I don't think LincStrong would hire someone used to the level of control he's had, which is far more than Lou had, which they disliked; and 2) he'd probably not want the job while the GM job is under question; or 3) he'd want to name the new GM. In any case, the current leadership at the top will want someone who won't disturb their twilight years. A young, energetic guy who will have his hands full with the team, or a tested team player (Simmons) with some intriguing qualities (intelligence, baseball insight, appetite for challenge) is the best I believe we can hope for. With the current situation, a swap of Simmons and Wedge makes sense from both a PR standpoint and a baseball one. The Ms will likely stand pat.
I'm a bit less of an Abreu fan, though, in that I see him as an alternative to Morales (who I'd offer ~2/$20mil rather than a QO) instead of having Abreu, Morales, and Smoak all on the roster. Ackley can backup 1B just fine, and I would prefer Almonte, Tenbrink/Romero/Kelly, and possibly Ryan/Taylor as our bench guys rather than slow sluggers. No more terrible fielders! If we can make a trade with Miami for Stanton, I feel a need for speed to get him as many speedy men on and subsequent fastballs as possible. Then when Deej and Wilson arrive.... :-) !!!
Almonte/Romero/Tenbrink/Kelly as a bench is a nice call, Bat. I'm in on that. Decent bats and flexable gloves. That's what your bench (minus platoons) should be.