The Carson Smith Deal
magic 8 ball, Dept.

Thus Saith the Shout Box:


SABRMatt - Grade 3 flexor mass muscle strain in his pitching arm - Carson Smith is probably not going to come back until after the AS break...d'oh!


Reply - MtGrizzly - 3/22/16 5:09pm



Reply - jemanji - 3/23/16 12:15am

Didn't I TELL you that was a good move?


Reply - anonymous - 3/23/16 12:36pm

The Carson Smith trade was hard to stomach. It is feeling a little bit better.


MASSIVELY better :- )

Still not giving DiPoto a totally free pass.  11-strikeout relievers were being traded for bricks of Colombian Gold this winter and the market is only getting worse.  

Further, the math on Elias vs Miley leaves Elias way out in front, salary considered.  You can question $/WAR dogma (and I do) but you have got to go 186,000 miles outside the box to conclude that a $6M Wade Miley is worth TWICE as much as an $0.5M Roenis Elias.  Highly paid mediocre innings eaters simply are not worth tons more than club-controls 7K rookie starters.  They're not worth more at all.

That said:  we've got to be fair.  Jerry DiPoto believes that relievers are untrustworthy by their very nature.  He traded two commodities he FELT squeamish about and he got back one commodity he FELT safe with. 

When it turns out that one of the "squeamish" foodstuffs did indeed make the diner toss his cookies in the back alley, you have to acknowledge that this one goes to DiPoto.


Did we mention we have a Byte Sized at the D-O-V Mainframe.


Another thread, Dr. D took Grizzly's bet that Paxton was odds-on to pitch less than 100 innings.  But what are the odds that one of the M's five starters will spend over a month out of action?  It's got to be over 80%.  That's true for any team, much less one packed with kids and long-abused NPB aces.


Dr. D can even tell you WHICH starter is goin' down
Dr. D can even tell you WHICH starter is goin' down



Put another way, this was all in the world Jerry DiPoto was saying:  I bet you Miley gives us more than Elias and Smith would have.  As it stands on Mar. 23, Prest-O Chang-O that turns out to be true.  We're more likely to win the pennant due to the trade.  Glad I thought of it.



Gnatto and MaqMan have voiced their opinions that Gutierrez' performance last year "was not an outlier."  I'm sure they're right.  But if they is, then in his late career Franklin Gutierrez became a weird thing:  --- > one of the greatest part-time players in all of baseball history.  

This man had an OPS+ of 168 last year.  If his "real" performance is anything remotely similar to that, then --- > all the other guys who could "really" OPS+ 150 became [not part-time players].  The intersection of Guit's talent, his weird health, and his intelligence would have produced a true platypus for us.  Which would be okay by me.  I like freakish stories, things that are outside the norm.  Especially when they work in our favor :- )

Cheerfully agree that it visually LOOKS like Gutierrez can keep hitting one home run every three or four games (1 HR per 12 AB's last year).  Kidding ... it looks like Gutierrez can slug .500+ in Safeco, yes.  It's quite a cognitive dissonance, because baseball precedent argues against him.  But that's okay.

Do keep reminding us, weekly, that he was your adopt-a-Guti.  Always enjoy attaching a player's name to a poster (not that kind of poster!)






What can I say...I just love watching him play...his enthusiasm and his rather unique blend of skills are a joy to watch for me.  Used carefully, he's also still a plus plus defensive corner that he can only play 3 days a week, he's 50% of Mickey Mantle until proven otherwise. :D


...I wouldn't tap-dance yet.  Remember, they get Carson Smith for four more years after this one with club controlled pricing.  We get Miley for one more year after this one.


If we are using the club-controls value paradigm, then all the same things apply after the injury as before.  Thing is, DiPoto said "relievers are overrated because they decline and get injured" and from his point of view that will apply to the 2H 2016 Carson Smith, the 2017 Smith, etc.

But yeah.


I believe we have a team option on him for 2018 also but he gets a tad pricy at 12million. I'm closing my eyes and trusting the theory that SP > RP for trades and that Dipoto knows his stuff and we get to see All-Star Safeco Miley.


By then we will need a 1.5 WAR projection from him to "justify" that much salary.  He's worth more than 1.5 WAR, that much is for sure, and yet ... it seems like you should get more for $12M.  Dr. D is no doubt stuck in the past.


When you have a bad situation, and find out its not as bad as you thought it was, that qualifies as good news.  I think.  For example, you are charged with a felony, and then it is reduced to a misdemeanor.  The felony charge is bad news, the reduction is good news and it is up to you whether or not you dance a jig after your misdemeanor sentencing hearing. 

There is some sort of Rorschach test here.

Can't say that Carson Smith's Tendon problems are good news though.  He was a great favorite.  But, we definitely feel better about the deal. 


Still not sure I'd even reduce it to 'misdemeanor.'  Just saying, DiPoto stated a core belief and not three weeks into the preseason, the coins did jangle into the catchbin.  Gotta give him props for that.

Little like saying, "DC makes good movies" and everybody says "Whaaaaaaa?!  Are you touched in the head?" and then a movie comes out and it's real good.  Doesn't put "paid" to the discussion but ... who was that guy again who was bullish on DC?


I read elsewhere that Miley's contract runs through 2018. So, three more years. If so, that makes the deal "another little bit" sweeter. 

I agree- seems like we gave up awfully on two developing suds from within the system, for two unknown, unloved arms from outside the system. But- I'm reminded- DiPoto's former job was to evaluate the BoSox system, player by player. This wasn't deal where a GM looks up a player's record in MLB Almanac and bids for an attractive set of stats. Jerry D was uniquely qualified to evaluate Miley and Aro, and (presumably) got the guys he desired. 

I'm sorry for Carson Smith that he's gone down- I'm glad it happened on the Red Sox payroll, not on the M's'- but I think if we're gonna trust Dipoto at all, then we must trust his evaluation of Red Sox talent. 


And the Mainframe was hopeful that DiPoto had something up his sleeve here.

Alas, judging by the flight of Miley's pitches there was no such ace-in-the-hole.  Only desperate hopes left is that DiPoto can project "growth" in Miley's command; last year he in fact did show a bit more location than he had before.  Jamie Moyer added game-in, game-out precision after age 30 and leaped a plateau.

But yeah.

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