Sabermetrics Ruined Ackley?
You can't go up there hoping for Ball One, kiddies

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Seen at a major saber site this mornin'... [edit to add] looking at the Shout Box after writing this one, we see that other blogs had also chimed in on the question.  We are actively avoiding Other Blogs, in part because our own shtick is less encumbered that way.  You're not getting reaction from SSI these days, unless it's to Baker or James.  

All you're getting is the truth :- )

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Hey Bill! The Mariners have demoted Dustin Ackley, and now Eric Wedge says that it's the fault of sabermetrics. He says the sabermetric folks ("who haven't played the game since they were 4 years old") got in his head and made him think too much about on-base percentage. How much responsibility do you think that you personally bear for Ackley's struggles?

Asked by: mikeclaw
Answered: 5/29/2013
Most of it, certainly.    I am also responsible, by the way, for the Dukakis campaign.   Don't ask.

.......

I THINK I WILL ASK

You wonder how many saberdweebs will ASK (a-s-k) the question, "Is Wedge right?"  How many of them will be able to get past their ego-defense mechanisms long enough to simply ask whether Wedge's assessment is accurate?

You doubt that anybody, on any other site, will ASK this.  Unless, of course, they visit this site.  Which they will.

When a person says something that we don't like, our instinct is to AVOID asking whether they are correct.  We skip that part, and move on to attempting the dismantle.

... um, I just realized that Mike Claw did ask.  Oh Well Whatever Nevermind.

.............

I think Wedge IS correct.

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What is so hard to believe about the suggestion that a young hitter could get confused at the plate?  

And what is so hard to believe, about the idea that as the pitcher releases the ball, the batter's attitude could be "Boy, I hope this pitch is a ball?"

And if the hitter is thinking that, consciously or subconsciously, he's dead.  I know because that used to be my issue in hardball.

It is entirely possible, even likely, that Eric Wedge is accurately diagnosing the root of Dustin Ackley's problem.  THAT HE IS UP THERE, HOPING FOR BALL ONE.

............

Is there anything hard to believe about the idea that NON-baseball players could be oblivious to the basic idea expressed in the above paragraph?  No, there isn't.  Non-athletes are totally oblivious to many things that are totally obvious to athletes.  I have noticed this a time or two.  

More to the point, so is Eric Wedge.  If I were a doctor, I would also get annoyed at patients who were condescending to me when correcting my treatment protocols.  And I'm not that annoyable.  Eric Wedge looks pretty annoyable.  Even if he weren't, I wouldn't blame him for getting annoyable'd at this one.  It would get old, having couch potatoes talk down to you about how to coach world-class athletes.

Saberdweebs should embrace their dweebiness.  Their view of the game is different.  Any time two things are different, there are going to be pro's and con's going onto the ledger.

To paraphrase Spock in the current Star Trek:  Saberdweebs' emotional resentment of Wedge's attitude suggests that they consider his attitude valid.

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HAVING SAID ALL THAT

OBP is simply truth.

Sabermetricians campaigned for baseball to understand the REAL role of OBP in the game.  When you are trying to disseminate TRUTH, you have done nothing wrong.

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Further ... this isn't an agenda-driven truth.  When the Seattle Times brought down Don James, it had an agenda totally outside of "advancing human knowledge."  There are times when a man's motivation for disseminating truth is ugly...

That is not the case here.  Not at all.  Sabermetricians did not have ugly attitudes on this issue.  They have mainly just wanted to advance human knowledge.  Especially on OBP.

...........

It's up to Dustin Ackley whether to let stat geeks get inside his head.  It's his job not to let Yu Darvish get into his head and Nick Franklin get into his head; why would he let us stat geeks inside his head?  If Mariner players want comfort and encouragement, well then, mercy sakes alive, they should just read Seattle Sports Insider.

If Ackley did, in fact, let stat geeks get into his head, then ... that is just the process of natural selection.  Some guys, such as me, are not meant to be pro athletes.

...........

DID Ackley let stat geeks into his head?!  That's a fascinating question, don't you think?

Did you notice something that bears on the answer to the question?  Eric Wedge just TOLD you that stat geeks DID get into Ackley's head.  Isn't it funny the way we filter things said by people we don't want to listen to?

...........

Last night's game was ugly on 9,000 fronts.... here, let's split this out.

...........

You wonder whether Sgt. Wedge is feeling the heat.  If this season imploded, then typically (in most times and most places) he'd be lookin' at another job.  He could get another job, we presume, but the Seattle Mariners line on his resume wouldn't look all that great for posterity.

He wants to be here when the talent jells.  SSI would, to a degree, prefer to see that too.  We respect Eric Wedge.

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Your friend,

Dr D

 

 

 

Blog: 

Comments

1
blissedj's picture

I haven't searched for it but has anyone stated on the record what Ackley is going to work on in Tacoma? I'd like his approach to be "swing hard at first strike you see, if you miss repeat process until on base or out".

2
GLS's picture

I have a very difficult time believing that Dustin Ackley is going to the plate thinking about OBP. I think, very obviously, there is a problem with his approach. But to say that stat geeks got inside his head is probably simplifying things to far too great an extent.
If you look at his minor league numbers, it's clear that selectivity is a big part of his game. It's also clear (and well documented) that he has superior contact skills. Is it possible that in the minor leagues, he was able to go with what pitchers would throw, and given his superior batting eye, and the poorer strikezone command of minor league pitchers, simply allow pitchers to put him on base via the walk? This, as opposed to certain other types of hitters that strike terror in the hearts of pitchers and force them to the outer edges of the strikezone. Is it possible that his superior contact skills allowed him to exploit the weaknesses of inferior pitchers in a way that simply doesn't work at the major league level?
It would be interesting to get some insight into what he's working on at AAA.

3

I went up there hoping for balls. Amazing how some kids could bend that thing over the plate like that. I had no chance.
Later, when I was coaching we had a young boy named Brad. Brad was a real little guy and the youngest kid on the team, and he wasn't going to hit anything. But who cared? OBP is your friend when the other kids are learning to throw strikes and they're looking at a tiny strike zone. Most coaches yell at their kids to swing the bat. I never yelled at Brad to swing at anything. The kid was working with his natural god given abilities here. Why set the kid up for failure by demanding he swing the bat? So, I fully expected Brad to stand at the plate (I put him at leadoff, naturally) and take the eventual walk. He could swing if he wanted to, but that was his choice - either way, the kid was going to get encouragement from me.
But then, after the walk, the fun really began for Brad because he could then steal second and third, and come home with our first run when an older kid hit the ball: "Hey Brad! You scored our first run! You're a hero!"
Now, that's fun for a kid who can't hit.
Funny how the game really doesn't change when you get older. If you ain't hitting, draw the walk, and run the bases. That's what Rickey Henderson did for us in 2000.

4

1st, Wedge's comment doesn't read as a deep insight into Ackley's thinking, it's just a cheap smear. For whatever reason Wedge felt the need to lash out, and that hardly deserves philosophical contemplation. Wedge's comment only reflects on Eric Wedge, not Dustin Ackley.
2nd, the vast majority of baseball players neither know nor care about popular sabermetrics. They do not read the Hardball Times or Baseball Prospectus nor have they ever done so. They are jocks to the bone, not nerdy intellectuals. When they were in high school, they didn't spend their evening reading stat blogs, they were out partying with the hottest girls in school. And now that they are pros with massive pay checks, they still are out partying as well as spending their money on cool activities. They aren't wasting their time on baseball websites. When it comes to their career, the people they listen to are their coaches and teammates.
3rd, even if Ackley is one of the few ballplayers who reads a ton of the research available on his sports, what he does with that is still 100% his responsibility. If his knowledge of the importance OBP leads him to use a sub-optimal approach, then he is to blame, not anybody else.

5

He made hard contact with everything - and put it all in the AIR to the deep outfield - that wasn't a situation-bunt to get the winning run into scoring position, so if "start swinging at stuff in the zone" was his marching orders, then he's good for the game even though the hits didn't drop.
 
Just FYI.
 
~G

6
blissedj's picture

Thanks for the update G! Would like to see M's give him every chance to be that #3 hitter instead of leadoff. Swing away Ackley, do some damage! Let Smoak draw those walks in front of you in the 2 hole :)

7

Even in his first year, Ackley had a bunch of called strike outs on pitches that were on the outside of the plate... and usually they were just off the plate and my guess is these pitches were probably called balls in college and the minors.
Unfortunately, Dustin has a very good and honed eye, but the MLB strike zone for lefties is different from what he has been used to.
Then when he started to swing at those pitches outside is norm, he could not hit them well... and thus he has been changing his style of hitting ever since.
Hopefully he can learn, and then get his confidence back.

8
Kyle's picture

If wedge meant (and had said) Ackley is too passive and is letting to many hit table pitches go by and it is confusing him at the plate then I think 100% of us would agree. What he did was deflect blame from where it belongs which is on Dustin and the coaching staff. It's one thing to protect a player it's another to protect yourself. Wedge's comments reeked of trying to cover his ass. Whether that was his intention or not, that's how it comes off when you don't take your share if the blame.
Wedge then compounded that with his stupid cheap shot about people who haven't played since they were nine. That is the baseball man's equivalent to saying "go blog some more from your mom's basement". It's petty and stupid and makes him come off as an idiot. I for one am done with the Eric Wedge era in seattle. He's a grumpy curmudgeon with horrible in game strategy. You can be grumpy or you can make questionable decisions but not both.

9
GLS's picture

I get a bit frustrated at times with the hostility of some to advanced statistics. I get equally frustrated with people that go so far down the rabbit hole of sabermetric thinking that they think that there isn't any other knowledge worth knowing.
Metrics are measurements. That's all they are. In baseball, what we're mostly measuring is performance of one kind or another, i.e. what actually happened. When we aggregate those measurements and start looking at the patterns statistically, we gain certain kinds of knowledge about what works and what doesn't; what winning teams really look like, etc. When we start adding in adjustments like park factors, we can add even more refinement to those numbers, so that we start to understand the context under which a certain player or group of players performed.
The numbers are a good thing. They help us understand what's really happening because that's what they measure - what really happened.
On the subject of hitting, the numbers can tell us a great deal about what a good hitter looks like, or what various types of good hitters look like, as characterized by their performances. What I don't think they help us with so much is understanding where good hitters come from, which is what I think this whole dustup is about. We don't really have a solid understanding of how a player becomes a good hitter. We know selectivity is helpful, in that it's generally better to not swing at pitches outside the strike zone. We know having good contact skills is helpful. We know that swing mechanics and reflexes are important. But we also know that within the set of hitters that are successful in MLB, that some are more selective than others and that some have better contact skills than others and some have better swing mechanics and reflexes than others. The formula that works for any individual hitter seems to be some combination of all of these, but since all players are different, that formula won't be the same for everyone.

10

This is a bit more reasonable:
"What I’m talking about is this recent generation of players that has come up in the sabermetrics world. It’s something that’s out there and people know how important it is. What you can’t do is play this game with fear. You have to go out there and play, and when you get your first good pitch to take a whack at, you have to take a whack at it. People stress so much getting deeper in counts and drawing walks, it’s almost a backward way of looking at it."
Why couldn't he have just said that in the first place? Why throw the "“People who haven’t played since they were 9 years old think they have it figured out" comment into the mix?

11
RockiesJeff's picture

I wanted to go watch Ackley and crew tonight but am dog tired. I look for Lonnie's reports to see how they are enjoying the thin air. Good article with the comments. Sabermetrics or any formulas should never be an issue. As said above, those are tools that have their place. It doesn't replace athletic skill, training and strategy for each pitch and at bat. As was said above, swing at strikes. Baseball requires thinking. Too much thinking can mirror being passive. During a game I look at pitcher's command efficiency to look for trends. That helps confirm observation. Ackley was a natural hitting machine in college. I hope he can find that balance again between being aggressive and selective.
I am interested what all of you think of how he is actually swinging now....when he does swing.

12

As I said, most ballplayers don't follow sabermetrics at all. If they are hearing about it, it is because MLB front offices have taken it very seriously. If players like Ackley are changing their approach in order to draw more walks, it's because their coaches and team executives are making an issue of it. So if Wedge really thinks that Ackley is paying too much attention to the talk about OBP, then he needs to direct his attacks towards his peers, his bosses and the rest of Major League baseball.

13

I think it was either a cheap smear......or an unadvised flippant comment. Dustin Ackley has had exactly one big league manager in his career, that being Eric Wedge. If Wedge is "unable" to get Ackley to approach his AB's in the proper manner, then either take the blame ("I haven't been able to get the kid to change his approach") or lay the blame on the feet of the player ("Dustin seems unable to change his ineffective approach").....not on SABR types who have no control of the process. And if he's going to blame the SABR types for Ackley's demise, how about giving them some credit for Smoak's survival, which is entirely BB based.
I think Wedge blew this one.

14
bsr's picture

If you read Wedge's follow up comments, it actually seems like his sabermetrics effect on young players point is not about Ackley specifically. Talking about Ackley just seems to have gotten Wedge going on a related topic that bugs him. I don't think he meant that Ackley himself is changing his approach based on sabermetrical analysis or influence, just that Ackley has gotten into a passive mindset, that Wedge also associates with sabermetric ways of thinking about the game. That a lot of brainy young hitters like Ackley are undoubtedly AWARE of even if they don't explicitly use them on the field.
How did Ackley get here? Who knows. I tend to subscribe to the Unified Theory of Mariner Hitting Failure - which is basically that the M's cheap ownership put way too much pressure on too many young guys to succeed all at once, and led them to measure their personal success based on achieving things at the plate that were unnatural to them, which set them up to flounder. How many lineup roles has Ackley been forced into? I'm not too surprised if he has come out confused about what his objectives are. Maybe that confusion is unusually disabling to him, because he's a personality type who gets affected by it...who knows?
I guess again, this is why I don't put so much blame on Wedge. He just hasn't had the firepower and he's had limited choice but to put young players in roles they weren't suited for (yet at least). Everybody can't bat 7-9 with no pressure! Someone had to be 1, 2, 3, 4 in the lineup.

15
M's Watcher's picture

and some times players just get sidetracked from their natural talents. Ackley is and will be a hitter, but I've never seen him appear to be so lost as he has the past month. I can't claim to know the problem, whether bad coaching or what's in his head. What I do suppose is that is isn't the same ego/stubbornness of League/Noesi with two strikes. Seemingly you could offer them coaching, back it up with stats, and those self-confident idiots would still throw predictable meatballs. Ackley seemed to have lost all confidence and memory of how he used to hit. Maybe Wedgie is right, or not, but clearly there was something clouding Ackley's head to the point he couldn't hit himself out of a paper bag. Look's like he could be figuring it out in Tacoma, and let's hope he can sustain it. Once he does, just let the man hit. Stop trying to make him into something else.

16
John's picture

This has nothing to do with Sabermetics. This has a lot to do with poor hitting coaches. Ackley has changed his swing from college. He has a terrible swing plane right now. His bat head is too flat in his set up. Watch Cabrera,Votto,Mauer and you will learn how to take the path of the bat head. The hitting coach should be fired. If he can fix his swing plane, he will be fine. If not, he will be finished.
He needs his North Carolina swing plane. Fire the hitting coach now...John

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