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Vic Martinez is the only guy I'll get excited over. Give me Vic Martinez and a cheep Alex Rios.
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The Times has a crisp little article, post-Qualifying Offer. Well, Tuesday Nov. 3 is the final day for QO's. A minute after midnight, the M's are free to announce their blockbuster signings of Martinez and Scherzer.
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The Times sez:
Lloyd McClendon won't say it on the record, but as far as he is concerned it is VICTOR MARTINEZ OR BUST. Okay by Dr. D. He'd rather spend $2 for something he wants, than $1 for something he doesn't want.
"Value" is your best deal on something you want. The free agent options, anyway, seem to be polarizing for us.
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On Michael Cuddyer, Divish points out that players like him -- aging, 1st-round draft pick attached -- are discounted like #11 jerseys at the Seahawk team store. Kendrys Morales and Stephen Drew had nightmare "holdouts" last year, and Nelson Cruz had to beg the Orioles to pay him 1/$8M for 40 homers.
As for Dr. D on Cuddyer: he'd established himself as a .275 hitter with 18 homers through age 32. Then he went to Colorado, posted BABIP's like .398 and now everybody thinks maybe he's a .550 slugger. His "expected" AVG's, and PX's (power indexes), have not changed.
Now he's 36, often injured, and about to gimp out of Colorado. 1st-round pick to sign him? No sale.
I'm Cuddyer? I grab that $15M so fast you don't even see my arm move. It was just 1980 that Nolan Ryan set the contract record at $1.2M per year; in 1990 it was still $3.8M per year for Don Mattingly; in 2000 it was still $15M per year for Kevin Brown.
In 1970, Yaz led the majors at $125,000. In my day there was a lot of fanfare over Johnny Bench being the first $100,000 catcher.
Cuddyer can pull down $15M for one year of playing baseball, at age 36. He better take it.
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Let's say that Cuddyer, at age 36, is still what he used to be, at age 30-32. That's .275/.335/.460 in a neutral park, with a good steady -15 runs defensively in RF. He averaged about 1.5 WAR per year.
The age 31 Cuddyer would be in the argument for this specific 2015 team, though I'd prefer Michael Saunders if he's not persona non grata. At age 36, I don't wanna pay for a cake that's already been eaten by the Rockies ...
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On Billy Butler, the Royals declined to attach the QO. Huh.
Just a year ago, he was considered an All-Star hitter who was worthless in the field and worth even less when clogging the bases ... Butler's a longtime fave of mine, and not yet 30. Here's a cool pro scouting report on him, mid-2013, that raves about his hitting ability.
The scary thing here for me is his PX trend. In 2013, at age 27, the velocity of the ball off his bat went WAY down. As did his HR's and even his AVG.
Now, in 2014, his AVG drops again ... and his HR's are down to 9. What does "9" translate to in Safeco? Much as I like Country Breakfast, he's getting physically sloppy and he's up there trying to put the ball in play now. Pass-a-deena.
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Kendrys Morales as a fallback option?
He is capable of hitting well in 2015. It could feasibly happen. Let's stipulate that part of it.
- GOOD: His EYE was no different in 2014 than it was in 2013 and 2012. His BABIP was very low last year.
- BAD: He was dragging the bat through the zone, trying to put the ball in play.
It will be intriguing to watch him in 2014. In a roto league, I'd take him as a VERY LATE round flier.
Question is: you're the GM of the Mariners. Is that how you fix this team? By sticking a late-round roto flier in at DH?
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Paul Allen doesn't chisel. If he wants a player, he "gets his best offer out there early" and if it's not good enough, he pulls it back off the table. If the M's want to play MARTINEZ OR BUST, well, hopefully Fangraphs will keep the $/WAR issue in perspective. As others have noted, if Victor Martinez is a noted "family man," that's the more indication that the M's will use a Cano-style full court press.
A few stats on Victor Martinez, who turns 36 in a few months:
| Stat | Result | AL Rank |
| HR | 32 | #10 |
| K | 42 | #1 lowest among qualifiers |
| SLG | .565 | #2 |
| Bats | RH* | #1 in your programs and in your hearts *when appropriate |
| OBP | .373 career | #18 among active NL & AL players |
| 2013 AB/K | 9.8 | #1 that year too |
| Runs Created | 126 |
#2 in MLB |
| Adj. OPS+ | 126 | #26 among active players |
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Can't get Victor Martinez? Gotta look at other options. If it's Dr. D, those options are not Cuddyer, Butler, or Kendrys.
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
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Is this the year to sign multiple QO-attached players and skip the first few rounds of the draft? Maybe so. Now that would be going all in, but could pay playoff dividends for the next several years. Just sign the right ones, the ones actually worth their QOs. Then, no complaints for actually exceeding "good enough for one off-season".
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The previous comment duplicated, then after I deleted the 2nd one, it won't let me edit. Oh, well.
I was going to make an additional comment on the third link:
http://motorcitybengals.com/2014/10/31/detroit-tiger-offseason-case-sign...
It's an excellent look at aging amongst top DHs (including 'Gar) and how VMart might fare over the next 3-4 years. All the more reason for the Ms to go after him with a will, a way, and a checkbook.
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that would cost a pretty penny (J. Upton is potentially available as a rent-a-player; the Fish are making noises about getting Stanton signed pre-Winter Meetings, which is usually a leverage play; Jose Bautista is outside possible, and we've got the trade bait to get him; Matt Kemp has been talked about to death; etc..).
But in FA, it really is Victor Martinez or bust. There simply aren't any good fits for this club outside of him. Hanley Ramirez *might* fit, I suppose, if you close your eyes and are willing to let him play shortstop.
I haven't been watching the games these last few years, so my cautiously pro-Butler position is admittedly tenuous, at best. We do have some measure of success with declining hitters (Sweeney, Griffey, Branyan, Ibanez' mummy, etc..) so I don't think Butler should be ruled out entirely. But he should be thought of more as an appetizer than an entree: something you could do just fine without but you buy it knowing that if it's good, you'll be happy to make room.
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The original of this comment got deleted after I deleted its duplicate.
And the editing box is doing strange things. But, again, oh,well.
Anyway, I think the Tigers may not be in as good a position to sign VMart as some are saying. The view from Detroit:
http://www.theoaklandpress.com/sports/20141029/tigers-dont-seem-to-have-...
http://motorcitybengals.com/2014/10/30/detroit-tigers-may-need-financial...
I think the Ms have a very good chance to sign him. The White Sox, the other possible contender, have more spots to fill for contention and may be easier to outbid - especially if they go after Tomas. For VMart, it will take something near the $60M I postulated (3x$18M plus a 4th year option with a combined $6M buyout/signing bonus). But based on the latest value for a WAR I've seen at FanGraphs (~$7M/per), it would only take VMart putting up 4-3-2 WAR over 3 years to equal ~$63M in value. And that doesn't figure the butts in the seats and possible banners this level of signing could represent.
The loss of the 1st round draft choice probably should be figured into that, but the way TomMac has come up with Seager, Miller, Paxton, Wilson, and Morgan in later rounds, and Taijuan in a supplemental round, I'm not sure it's that severe a hit for the Ms if past draft performance is a guide.
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I liked Cuddyer when I thought the cost would be akin to an age 36 Ibanez contract. As a second add at DH after a trade for a RF, he would be fine. A gap filler, if you will. But...$15m QO? Bizarro world.
Victor or bust.