and then hit the showers.
Can we both (all?) agree that Michael Pineda had equal or greater trade value than Taijuan Walker?
And what did Pineda fetch? A prospect similar in ranking to Cameron Maybin, essentially STRAIGHT UP. The other pitchers involved are close to a wash.
Can we agree that multiple year Top 10 or Top 20 Baseball America darlings Jesus Montero and Cameron Maybin were of similar trade value? One was a plus bat at a premium position that was projected to be below average defensively and perhaps have to move off the premium position. The other was a plus glove at a premium position with an exciting bat and potential to develop into a 5 tool superstar.
The Montero trade did not work out, but that is a pretty good comp for Walker value. Pineda already had a year and an all-star appearance under his belt.
Q. Miguel Cabrera 2007. Was he traded to Detroit for four Taijuan - Paxton - Zunino - Miller level assets?
A. I would definitely agree that Miguel Cabrera 2007 would be a great comp for Stanton currently. I would clearly want Cabrera, coming off two .430 and .401 OBP seasons, and playing the infield.
But that's a trade package that should be included in the discussion, if we're trying to get our bearings on what Stanton might cost. Really, you would need about 20 such packages, all since 2000 or so.
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Q. Is anybody going to search for the LOWER bounds of what a Stanton might cost?
A. I'm trying to imagine the Seattle 'net if SSI had proposed a Cliff Lee deal based on what we got him for...
But yeah. While you guys try to find the max that Stanton might conceivably fetch, how about also considering some cases where the buyer got a good deal?
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Q. WAS Detroit's package comparable to the A's package? or what?
A. ...
1. Cabrera was packaged with Dontrelle Willis, a #3 ML starter who had 200+ innings the previous three years. If Miami's going to include Ricky Nolasco, signed under terms comparable to Willis, then our offer would be higher.
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2. The players that the Marlins received for Cabrera and Willis:
- Maybin, a top-10-MLB prospect who had 24 AB's and a .143 AVG in the bigs - Comp: Nick Franklin or Brad Miller (Maybin "sexier" but Franklin, Miller play 2B/SS)
- Andrew Miller, a reclamation project under a major cloud (destroyed twice in bigs, was looking broken, and in fact was broken). Comp: Jesus Montero
- Frankie de la Cruz, an org prospect with 6 poor innings in the bigs - Comp: Blake Beavan
- Mike Rabelo - not in DETROIT's top 10 prospects at time of trade
- Burke Badenhop - not in DETROIT's top 10 prospects at time of trade
- Dallas Trahern - Detroit's #8 prospect at time of trade ... 92:52 CTL in 162 innings, AA
So the Cabrera deal would probably sit across from a deal such as Franklin-or-Paxton, Jesus Montero, Beavan or maybe Maurer, and several non-glamor prospects. That in return for Stanton and Nolasco, or maybe Slowey.
You can dig through trade history and get a feel for it; you'll quickly get a feel for just how much Brad Miller is worth, on the trade market. Even the Yankees and Red Sox slobber over ML regulars who have six years left!
It ain't real easy to deal for a good baseball player who is making $490,000, free agent in 2020. Tell me which one you'd go get?
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Q. What was the Haren deal again?
A. Thebaseballcube.com site goes ahead and collates each prospect's Baseball America standing, year-by-year. The Cardinals gave up:
- CarGo who was #18 in baseball,
- Brett Anderson an ORG #9 ranked guy in 2007 who one year later became an MLB top prospect,
- Chris Carter an ORG #10 ranked guy in 2007 who two years later became an MLB top prospect,
- Three other decent org prospects
Q. What was this distinction about "MLB-certified" or "MLB-baptized" or whatever?
A. Pick your own semantics. Obviously nobody believes that Taijuan Walker has the same established standing that Stephen Strasburg does; that's TRITE. :- /
But it has become very clear, this last season, from various sources that --- > after a hotshot prospect IMPRESSES in the ACTUAL BIG LEAGUES, his value shoots way up.
C'mon. Matt Moore threw 9 good innings in the bigs, and got an 8-year deal. Whether YOU agree with this or not, we are talking market value.
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Q. So when have four "MLB-baptized" blue chippers been traded for a Caberera or Haren or whatever?
A. I dunno ... the Colon trade was certainly stunning, but (a) it was a special case, and (b) Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore weren't exactly as highly regarded then as they are now.
Like we said, line up 10 cases where the selling team did good, and 10 cases where the buying team did good, and you're not going to find Taijuan - Paxton - Zunino- Miller going out for one superstar. Don't sweat Zduriencik doing anything like that.
Even last year's Taijuan/Franklin for Justin Upton ... that would be like giving up Hultzen and Romero, now.
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Q. Is Zunino tradeable in any scenario?
A. I'd appreciate it if somebody came up with any such past case. Two-way catcher, org darling. Zunino has arrived on the scene after many, many years of problems with pitcher communication. Since Dan Wilson.
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Q. Has a Taijuan Walker ever been traded?
A. I can't think of a time one ever has. We'll throw it open to the house. Anybody?
98 MPH, four pitches, many people regard him the very best pitching prospect in baseball, very successful cup of coffee in the bigs.
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Q. OK, Doc. As usual you have out-typed, if not out-argued, your friends into submission. What do YOU see as an offer that would WIN the sweepstakes for Stanton?
A. The Marlins can ASK anything they want. What they settle for in the end, that's the question. Every year we hear teams ask for three of your best and brightest, settle for one, and hear fans saying it will take all 1-5 in your org.
We have no way to know how much the Marlins like, let's say, James Paxton. If they did, my own wild guess is that Paxton, Erasmo Ramirez, Brad Miller and Charlie Furbush would win the sweepstakes. I might do that.
It's VERY possible that the Marlins love (say) Nick Franklin. ML orgs aren't as fickle with hot streaks as fans are; remember, Andrew Miller was the key to the Cabrera deal, and he'd gotten destroyed in the big leagues. Franklin/Ackley, + Hultzen, + Maurer, + Capps would be an overpay, it says here... but one I'd consider, if I thought I could sign Stanton to an extension.
You get one truly glamor prospect, ML-ready, who WILL be in the Opening Day lineup 2014, and that's the standard for these deals. Then two exciting players, who WON'T be in the Opening Day lineup, and sweeteners.
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Q. Who counts as "truly glamor prospects, ML-ready, who WILL be in the Opening Day lineup 2014"?
A. Hm. Taijuan, Paxton, Zunino, Miller, Seager* without question.
You can argue about Nick Franklin, Dustin Ackley, and Danny Hultzen. Fact is, the Mariners are loaded in this department; the M's have Jack Zduriencik and he's been drafting real high, kiddies.
We're only talking ML-ready; the D.J. Peterson types are another matter.
Brandon Maurer, Erasmo Ramirez, Stefen Romero, Michael Saunders, of course Jesus Montero, their stock is down a bit, but all are two good months away from the same status.
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Q. Big finale. Your take on Bat571's proposal of Franklin-Erasmo-Romero and sweeteners?
A. :: drumroll ::
;- )
Looks a bit light to me, unless (1) the Marlins liked Franklin more than Miller and (2) were madly in love with Erasmo. You and I know that Erasmo could go 15-8, 3.60 next year, but is that his current stock?
But in my view, the basic sense of proportion is a lot closer to accurate than elsewhere...
I'd re-phrase, counselor, and say ZUNINO-Erasmo-Romero-plus, or Franklin-PAXTON-Romero-plus.
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Pop's deal of Taijuan-Miller-Romero-Pike ... I'd have a rough time dealing Taijuan even steven. But if you caught me in a very desperate mood, I might cough up my darling shortstop along with Taijuan, and sweeteners... ::ulp:: surely they'd take Franklin instead? They need a 2B.
It would hurt, hurt bad, but it's a year on and you're getting Stanton instead of Upton for Taijuan and Franklin. Intriguing!
Like we say, if you're real sure that you're real happy with what you're getting back, don't be afraid to pay $1.25 on the dollar. Maybe Pop's qualifies?
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
Great Gammons piece. Maybe I have been too bearish on Z's likelihood of re-upping. It would seem to be conventional wisdom among those who run baseball front offices that the M's cake should not be expected to be baked yet. I wonder though why Baker (very much in touch w/ the rest of the league) is so hard on the M's for their lack of results in the rebuilding process. Perhaps the league just thinks Z has whiffed on his talent selection and the cake isn't ever going to rise to championship level at this point - and that is why he doesn't deserve more time.
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In 1980, Cox’s fifth year running the organization, he said, “when you’re rebuilding, it takes five years with some luck to develop pitching, seven years before you can start realizing position players.”
The luck was the Doyle Alexander-John Smoltz deal in 1987. By the sixth year, 1991, they pitched their way to the World Series. Four years later, when Chipper Jones and David Justice and others developed, they won the world series.
I don't follow Stanton closely or know much about him - pretty casual baseball fan outside the M's. Just glancing at his stats though, striking is his lack of PAs each season. 601 in 2011, 501 in 2012, will be around 500 this year. Is this thought to be a concern or just fluke stuff? Contrast Miggy who was 685-685-676 in his equivalent years 2-4. And has been incredibly consistent and durable since as well. I can see the rate stats for Stanton tracking Miggy (until this year), but total production is not even close. B-Ref O-WAR of 3.7/4.3/3.1 for Stanton vs 3.8/5.6/6.7 for Miggy.
I get the power projection possibilities, but it is hard for me to see how even a Stanton with a 3-year extension is considered anywhere near Miggy's value in 2007. Help me out though...
Appreciate your perspective as always Blissed. :- ) You da man.
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The over-arc'ing debate aside, I remember the Maybin situation the way Bob remembers it.
... even in the report you cite, "possible top-of-the-order" projection means that his power was in serious doubt, which it was, and is. Maybin had people excited precisely because of the 5 tools -- like Michael Saunders -- but I remember people being quite dubious about his contact, hitting ability, and 30+ homer power. His ceiling was to be what Justin Upton was now.
He wasn't chopped liver, but as far as a Bryce Harper type, no.
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Taijuan is going to be MUCH more highly regarded in baseball now, than Pineda was at the time of trade amigo. For one thing, you and I and SSI regarded Pineda much differently than baseball did, because of the 2-pitch thing.
We have well-and-truly degenerated into perceptions and opinions here :- ) but appreciate yours.
Which is appropriate. :- )
Maybe not 'much' more highly regarded. Pineda was a starlet with a great year under his belt. ... After Felix' first 8-9 games, as a rookie, was he 'much' more highly regarded than Pineda after one year?
It says here that Taijuan is going to be thought of in baseball --- > about like Felix was, after his (grande) cup of coffee. It's not about sabermetrics. It's about visualizing the finished product...
You could be right Blissed about the value that Maybin had at the time of trade. Obviously the Marlins thought it was pretty high! :- )
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The point here is, though, that neither Caberera nor Haren fetched 4 Maybins. They didn't even fetch two. That's something we can agree on, no?
And have enjoyed reading what Bob and everyone else has to say. Don't be a stranger Bob! I enjoy commenting and debating and learning from what everyone here has to say here and try to keep things as civil as possible while maintaining my passion. I really do get excited about baseball, and take great interest in following prospects! I get overly-emotional and have man-crushes when it comes to guys like Gregory Polanco and Maikel Franco and Mookie Betts. Somehow I've managed to get into a debate regarding Maybin and was never a rabid fan of him myself. It's been fun trying to peg his true value, even if it turned into a good natured food fight..
A bit surprised you think Taijuan is MUCH more highly valued than Pineda!?!? I will keep reading and see if anyone else has a take on that.
Thanks again for such a fun place to hangout.
Puig is a reasonable one to point to as a rookie who makes a splash, but to me the better comp is Profar to Machado. Is there ANYONE who thinks that between the two, who a little over a year ago were considered peas in a pod, that Machado is not FAR more valuable today.
I'll just note here in any comparison of Stanton with Dunn - The Fielding Bible shows Stanton as one of the top right fielders in baseball - not just "a better glove". Like Aaron, the glove is being overlooked because of the .600 SLG, but Stanton IS a FAR more complete package than Dunn, although I would agree that RF is less demanding over 162 than 3rd base - so Cabrera WAS the best young player ever traded, and even if Stanton does get traded, he still will be.
"nobody wants to tell their fans they traded for a future Glavine who is only the #8 prospect in somebody else's organization."
One of the reasons Miami has been successful, both fiscally and on the field (as much as they have, that is) is because Loria & co. really don't give a rat's rear for what people think if they get what THEY think they want. And with Beinfest, Jennings, and Hill choosing who they want, they've been successful - their haul from Toronto is exhibit A. This has been part and parcel of my argument all along - they ARE smarter than most orgs, and MIGHT be interested in multiple really good guys who fit in their current mode, rather than insisting on some formula.
With all of that, jemanji. Since you asked for further opinions, Blissed. I also think the repertoire of Pineda has gone underrated in most places. I'm sure there are teams and execs that value it but largely outside of here I've not seen a lot of evidence.
That's only awesome if we get him. Pretty cool anyway, really.
The guesswork is all we can do from here. That's ok by me. I missed that Hultzen review from Spec and haven't seen him pitch. Paxton is still making my jaw at least start to drop when I watch him though, he's my favorite so far. Going to look for that to read now. . .
The batting average is something I react to and notice too. But I've been told to look past it enough times that I did in this and that's where it put me. Look at all the numbers except BA and you'll probably see what I did. If they're not pretty even (aside from this injury affected year) the biggest difference is Cabrera was a year older with a year less control left. Absolutely the position comes into play too. I could have considered that instead of focusing on the offense almost entirely but didn't even think of it. Great response
Blame Twitter? More people seem to know who Stanton is than Cabrera was among more casual fans. You're absolutely right in all of that so it comes down to whether you think there's a durability problem and if not how you weight rate stats in near full seasons vs the extra production in very full seasons. Really if you're considering his health too much I think that's just too many "and"s to pay all that. I don't know how to answer much more though. I don't know how oWAR is calculated. If there's positional adjustment that could somewhat answer that depending on the difference. I think it's simply that power Tool, but there may be more or I may be wrong. I'd say at this point what Cabrera was then is probably close to the same as Stanton is now, it's just in how you set and weight the projections from that point on who would be considered more valuable.
that at the time, within baseball, the Pineda trade was seen as a big loss for the Mariners. Other front offices were reportedly shocked, as in, "Wait. Michael Pineda was available? And that's all they got?"