Sizzlers - Bottom Half of the Inning, 5.19.18
Jean "Sudden" Segura

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Picking from a long list of the usual suspects, here are several that Dr. DL found especially amusing this weekend:

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JEAN SEGURA

Batting average with Runners In Scoring Position (RISP) is a junk stat, since usually an AVG looking back here won't predict an AVG going forward.  However, in this case you wonder.

Segura is hitting .385 with a whopping .577 SLG in the RISP condition, and also hitting .352 with a .534 SLG in the simple "men on base" condition.  Imagine for a moment YOU are the pitcher.  You are in the midst of the inning in which Heredia-Gamel and/or Dee Gordon have worked their way onto 2B and 3B.  Got that firmly in your mind?

You are aware that Segura is comfortable attacking the ball on you, but ... would you rather pitch to him, or to Cano (Haniger) and Boomstick?  So what we are seeing is pitchers giving Segura a good piece of the plate, and he's accepting the invitation.  Let's not forget that Segura is a 200-hit man himself, but whatever he hits he is still camoflaged, assuming runners are on, by the fearsome lumber behind him.

With 29 RBI so far, Segura's on pace for 99.95 RBI.

His plate discipline is aggressive, 37% chase rate and 65% swing rate in zone (30-67 average).  His EYE is 7:30 but it says here that he is in his element playing this way.  :- )

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MITCH HANIGER

On TV tonight, they quoted him as saying he has "felt right" pretty much all year.  Previously he's explained that means that the "timing of his load" to the pitcher's release point is correct.

WATCHING him hit, watching him lean down and swat pitchers' pitches through the holes right and left, watching him exploit mistakes, Dr. DL is starting to buy into his .290/.375/.560 batting line.  On TV they also underlined the idea that organizations around baseball are buying in, telling each other "Hey, don't let this kid beat you."

With each passing week and every new handful of RBI -- he's got 34 or 36 or something, to put him about #6 in the league -- he looms more ominously as the M's franchise player of the next ten years.

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GUILLERMO HEREDIA

Continues his Control the Zone (TM) rampage.  Continues his DiMaggio-like domination of center field.  Continues to provide the Seattle Mariners a better defensive unit than what they had before Cano's suspension.  

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BEN GAMEL

Definitely he started real slow.  But he's been swinging the bat lately, .381/.458/.667 over the last week going into Saturday's game ... and then Saturday, smacked a homer right down the RF line and smacked a sizzling double right down the LF line.

Dr. DL keeps reminding himself that the Mariners love Gamel to death, and that's not nothing.

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PLAYOFFS

Leaning heavily on the offense, of course.

WC Record GB
Bos-NYY loser 30-14, sorta
SEATTLE! 26-19 On pace for 94 wins.  Tolja that teams would peel off that pace ;- )
LAA 25-21 -1.5 to Sea
Orcs 24-22 -2.5 to Sea
TB 22-22 -3.5 to Sea

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Enjoy,

Dr DL

Comments

1
Friedgreensooner's picture

Dr.D,

You and your writing compadres are amazing. This is the first site I check in the morning and during the month you were down I was living in mortal fear that you had left my life for good! The series of articles on Sizzlers and Fizzlers is indicative of the of the kind of writing this late 50's vintage University of Oklahoma pitcher has become addicted to. I have learned more baseball over the last fifteen years from you than all my coaches put together even knew themselves. Thanks for makiing my ffirstcup of coffee so enjoyable for so long!

2

For an NCAA pitcher to give us such a glorious compliment -- well, thanks for taking the time, Sooner.  It does my heart so much good, as it does Mo' Dawg's and Matt's and many other core microprocessors in the Mainframe.  :- ) 

Please do us a favor and drop a line or two as often as you can.  There is a mortal ton of baseball knowledge you possess that we non-athletes do not.

Warmly,

Jeff

3

They're still a great team, but I think Houston does not have an elite offense. Last year, they benefited from a number of career years that clocked in well beyond the normal stat lines of these guys.

Jake Marisnck. Marwin Gonzalez, Yuli Gurriel, Evan Gattis, Brian McCann all rocked it way, way more than they should have given their normal abilities.

All of them have returned crashing to earth. Gonzalez is a good little player, but a 100 OPS+ guy, nut a 150. Gattis is streaky and not going to hit for average, McCann is a good hitter, but not the superstar he was last year, Marisnick has been power flushed back to AAA, and Gurriel has some of the softest batted ball numbers on the team.

Their pitching is just RIDICULOUS...and that leaves them still a favorite to win the division, but I'm not convinced that playoff slot should be ignored.

5
tjm's picture

. . . as Matt says, the pitching, oh the pitching. This is Koufax-Drysdale- etc.- level stuff. I think they could throw the SSI slow-pitch offense out there and win half their games. I see you in the four-hole Matt!

I gotta believe Bauer knew what he was talking about with that staff. They've got three guys who suddenly became or regained All Star form when they joined the 'stros. I just don't see them fading unless their bullpen descends to the depths. 

6

On pace for 94 wins with a staff ERA+ of 95. Kinda cool! Now improve the pitching some and you've got something. Git 'r done, Jerry.

7

If this club added a solid #2-3 starter, to push Marco back, it would have a team that need fear no one.

Git 'r done indeed -

8

had a 2/3 starter in his final year with a hefty salary they'd be happy to dump...and be willing to take a marginal propspect in return...

who might that starter be?  Are there options?

9

Cole Hamels, Bartolo Colon, Doug Fister, Francisco Liriano, Kyle Gibson, Chris Archer, Rich Hill, Clayton Richards, Wei-Yin Chen...

Anyone got any other ideas? Those are the guys at or near the end of their contracts with any value to offer a contender who are healthy enough to contribute and who are playing on teams already out of contention out that could fall out of contention soon.

12

Not many days ago I said that the concerning element about Gamel was less his slow start than it was the lack of XB pop at ANY level this year.  And that from a big Gamel fan.  

I am less worried about that today.  That tater was exactly the type of hurt he has to put on a pitch that isn’t down or inside enough.  

Heredia is hitting .318-.500-.591 vs. RHP.  That will not continue, but it doesn’t have to.  If he can just hit .700 VR, then he’s a heck of a player.  He was basically a .600 vR-er coming into this year.  

Great catch by Haniger last night.  Gordon’s 130 ft. IF double was something out of the Cool Papa Bell Book of Legends.

And, in case you missed it, Tank O’Neill hit his first MLB homer last night.  It left the yard in a hurry.  He’s going to do that a whole bunch of times before he is done.  

https://www.mlb.com/gameday/phillies-vs-cardinals/2018/05/19/530088#game_state=final,lock_state=final,game_tab=videos,game=530088

13

Check, check, check, and check.  Appreciate cha Mo.  Gamel's night did a whale of a lot to calm my frayed nerves on him also.  Guess I need to remember that he didn't have a ST.

Yeah, we may very easily wind up losing that deal, even if Gonzales pitches well over the next few years.

15

...who have been totally in on Heredia with me from the start.

Last night, thanks to a VERY kind invitation, I sat in the fhe first row, directly behind the M's dugout. Servais sat on the rail, literally right in front of me.  Afrter Heredia made his excellent running catch in the ninth (second of the game), I cupped my hands and yelled, "Hey, Scott!!"  Of course he wasn't going to turn around, but you could see his ears prick, and he flinched ever so slightly.  

"Keep him out there in center the rest of the year--no matter what.  He's amazing!"

So, message delivered.  

A couple other impressions from that vantage point:

  • Haniger sat for almost five minutes and talked to Brosius after his first at bat.  I don't know what they were saying, but it was clear that Haniger just wants to analyze and absorb as much as he can.  It seems to me he's fully aware that he's 27, not 23, and this is his moment so he's intent on making the most of it.
  • The reverence for Edgar, especially among the Latin players, is obvious.  They stop and talk on the way to the on deck circle like they're seeking a dispensation from the Pope.  It was very cool to watch.
  • Edgar is about as chill as you can get--no bodily reactions the whole game, either positive or negative--with one exception.  When Zunino strikes out, Edgar makes sure he gives him a reassuring pat on the shoulder on the way down the dugout steps.  Z's the only one that gets a response.  And after his last strikeout, Servais demonstrably cringed.  They want SO BADLY to get him out of his funk.  I do, too!
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1) Guess who leads the team in OPS?

2) Minimum 75 PA, guess who leads the major leages in on base percentage?  (If you think he can't keep that up, I'm not going to argue--but there's only one way to find out!)

3) Doesn't he deserve some kind of a nickname?  Gui-er-mo doesn't just roll off the tongue.  So how about just the first syllable--Gui?  As in "ghee".  Anyone old enough to remember the great Montreal Candadian start, Guy LaFleur?  He was a "ghee"--time for another one!

19

I didn't see that--seems good to me.  I can hear a crowd chanting, "Air-Mo!"

20

Well done Diderot! Let's hope he takes your message to heart. :D

Also, that's an interesting observation regarding Zunino and Edgar/Servais. I warned y'all again after he hurt his oblique. Zunino will start hitting around the all-star break or so.

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