1
Doc-
Gotta throw Scribner into that RHRP mix - prob ahead of Bass & De Fratus right now my thoughts. Hope we can add one LHRP and RHRP to the pile and let them fight it out in spring training.
Teeman
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con·cise
[kənˈsīs]
SLAP ME SILLY do I hate "concise." Not for you. For me.
Remember when USA Today used to put out a pre-draft roto value table for every player in baseball? That reporter with the "baseball beard" had to sum every player up in six words. Now THAT is heroic.
No reason we can't attempt the same, I guess. Satire or Summary? You be the judge. And: any of you guys know what "Way Draft" means? We're wide open on this one; that is the whole point.
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| Role | RP / SP | Grok | ||
| CL | Cishek | DiPoto must see somethin' I don't | ||
| SU | Benoit | Must personally ransom the hostages | ||
| SU | Zych | XLNT draw at the Carson Smith deck | ||
| LH | Furbush | Biggest medical gamble in Seattle | ||
| RP | Bass | Pencil in 70 "don't beat yourself" IP | ||
| RP | De Fratus | 8.4 / 2.0 / 0.7 in 2014: the 'RP's Are Random' Theory Lives | ||
| LH | Nuno | Safeco's help with gopheritis = average/solid | ||
| SP1 | Felix | Seaver/Clemens with 20% chance of elbow going | ||
| SP2 | Wade Miley | Ultimate "solid" #3-4 lefty | ||
| SP3 |
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Quality #3 last year. Now attempting Mt. Schilling climb | ||
| SP4 | Karns | 8.9 K last year. Dr. D will take this bet ... | ||
| SP5 | K-Pax | ... and this is an SSI *Best* Bet |
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Hm. Doesn't look quite so nervy when you put it that way....
Funny thing. If Dr. D were a GM and scrabbling together a pitching staff on a shoestring, it would look quite a bit like the above. Why it need be on a shoestring, that's another question, but yeah.
Enjoy,
Dr D
Comments
3
Cishek said in the introductory presser that he lost his arm slot in ST and lost velo as a result. Dunno if anyone's mentioned that, but hopefully that takes care of any shoulder worries.
4
Saw some graph of his release point; over the last three years it's been moving like a clock hand timing backwards. A submariner is one thing; most P's start 'cutting under' the ball and seeing it flatten out ...
Raising the arm angle *is* the classic fix for his situation. Get on top of the ball more, get more 'pro' bite on it. We'll see.
5
As I love this game....
C) Iannetta - Old players have low BABIPs. CAUTION!
BC) Clevenger - Career 70s OPS+: Not Tom Lampkin
1B) Lind - Perennial all-star no one noticed.
2B) Cano - Healthy Cano is still a superstar.
3B) Seager - Maybe this is his breakout season?
SS) Marte - Stay patient, stay productive, kid (please??)
LF) Aoki - Why is his defense bad? Dunno.
CF) Martin - Worst CFer in the AL...sorry.
RF) Smith - Mariner fans don't like him. WHY???
OF) Gutierrez - Championship Platoon Outfielder (TM), my favorite Mariner. :)
DH) Cruz - Only two WAR, my bulbous backside!
6
Martin's bat will rebound back to at LEAST 90 OPS+ and that added to his superb defense, and SafeCo inflating CF defense will make Martin a 3.5-4 WAR player!
:)
Also Mariners are going to the World Series! ;)
7
Because I think Martin could very easily hit .210 with no power and get replaced by June.
8
'cause that scenario is definitely possible (in DiPoto's mind at least), and it gives the M's that Great White Whale of a 4 WAR player harpooned out of trash heap. Your first paragraph and your last are definitely compatible. :- )
11
What would be fun, would be if a dozen or so SSI'ers followed your lead.
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Ca - Ianetta - Reliable vet sutures a sucking chest wound.
1B - Lind - Ravages righties reliably. Raises retiune's résumé.
2B - Cano - Superstar hampered by injury last year. Expect regression.
3B - Seager - Everybody's waiting for a breakout. He's already broken out. This is who he is and it is sublime.
SS - Marte - Played over his head during his cup of coffee. Cross yer fingers.
LF - Aoki - Proven productivity for his role. Sets a floor.
CF - Martin - DiPoto is smarter than I so...::shrug::
RF - Smith - Best schlub of a ballplayer in the game.
DH - Cruz - Unexpected power spike has remained...and conqured Safeco.
2CA - Clevenger - Stoploss at a critical position...especially with an aging vet.
4OF - Gutierrez - Platoon in RF. Worked great last year, no reason to think it won't continue.
UTL - Taylor - Beats out Sardinas for a 25-man spot, spells all over the IF. PH option against lefties.
BAT - Montero - Platoons with Lind to make one Prince Fielder. PHs vs. lefties.
13
I'm with you, Matt. I really am struggling with the Leonys Martin situation.
Look, I get it. He's really good defensively. But even if he regressed back to his tip-top form at the plate, that's a wRC+ in the 80's vs. righties and a wRC+ in the 50's vs. lefties.
I'd like it explained to me, clearly, how his impact defensively can justify a chance at knowingly putting a black hole in one of your nine offensive slots...if things go well. If things stay the same or get worse, which is known to have a non-zero percent chance of happening, you have a critical failure.
Please, someone. Someone slip on their DiPoto shoes and explain this to me. I'll grasp at just about any justification that makes sense.
Nathan H
14
Why is Martin's injury plagued (Hamate bone got removed so shouldn't be a lingering issue) being weighted so heavily? At this point it really feels like a lot of the folks on SSI see the cost (Wilhelmsen and PK), and hate the deal out of hand, thus they have to denigrate Martin to justify the disdain. [Aside: Why a guy who has less of a chance at sticking in the MLB than Romero, who we kept, and a Middle reliever, rate such reverence... I'll never get either].
First off… Martin doesn’t have to do anything other than BE WHO HE ALREADY HAS BEEN for the majority of his career to be a 4 win player… Again other than his injury 2015 Martin HAS BEEN a 4 win player. I am not sure where you are getting your wRC+ numbers but both BBRef and Fangraphs have Martin as a slightly below average offensive player (90 OPS+ ish), but an EXTREMELY plus defender… something that A.) SafeCo INFLATES and B.) Is something that the mariners in particular sorely need.
His “Tip Top” form is ALREADY a 4 win player, regarless of his vs left wRC+, and that isn’t allowing for the non-zero chance that this young, supremely athletic player has no offensive upside left in him. Let’s recall that F-Gutz came to Seattle a similar all glove no bat CF… and he blossomed on the offensive side… in fact I think there is plenty of evidence to show that a low power, high contact guy like Martin will do BETTER with the bat in a spacious ball park like SafeCo than in a bandbox like the Rangers play in… In a park like Globe Life in Arlington the defenders are concentrated (less green for Martin to hit) and he aint hitting it out anyways. I would be willing to bet we see Martin’s singles and doubles go UP batting for the Mariners! And of course his homers can’t really go much lower ;)
I am genuinely curious… why does Tommy get a thumb on the scale because he has been a closer before, or Carson gets one because he could be a closer someday, or a blizzard of PK’s warts get glossed over because he played football for a couple years and could become a plus hitter someday… But Martin’s has been (4 win player 2 years in a row) and could be (young freakishly athletic player aging into more power and patience, but keeping the defense and becoming a 6 win player) is totally ignored / brushed off because of one poor, injury driven season???
15
Both struggled with some success as ML hitters entering their age 26 season. Guti broke out, while Martin had injury issues. But their ML seasons prior to that look very similar. Prior to that, Martin really owned the minors in his limited exposure there: .321/.387/.505 for an .892 OPS. That's in 646 plate appearances. Martin always hit very well in the Cuban leagues as well, with a slash line of .308/.429/.457 for an .866 OPS.
In all leagues, Guti's lifetime OPS is .758. Martin's is .799.
I think there is still a lot of offensive upside to Martin. A lot more upside in total than what we gave him up for. And of course, that means elite defense and baserunning at a premium position. A 90ish OPS+ is well within possibility, having done that for two seasons prior to the injury washout of 2015. I think you take that package for CF, if you get that chance, and his WAR numbers indicate it.