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... how we forget that Darvish is only 5 months younger than... Felix Hernandez.
BA on Chapman
Rounding out our badminton match with Baseball America's Top Ten Plays from Oct 19 - Nov. 1, here they are on Chapman...
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Flip: Callis "won't be surprised" if Chapman gets three times what Strasburg got, $15.1M. Why? Chapman is lefty, was clocked at 100, and is on the open market, "a potent combination."
However, Callis himself would rank Chapman simply top-25 among baseball's prospects, and Chapman would fail to rank #1 in many orgs' lists.
Chop: This mirrors SSI's position, which is that Chapman is liable to get a whale of a lot more $$$$$ than most fans think he will ... but personally I'd have slotted him about #3 in the last June draft.
Dropping him down to 25 would be a bit harsh, but Callis doesn't hesitate to back up his judgment with specifics...
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Flip: Callis would take Heyward SF, Posey and Bumgarner SF, Stanton FLA, Strasburg WA, Matusz BAL, Alvarez PIT, Feliz, Smoak and :- ) Perez TEX ... as well as Dustin Ackley ahead of Chapman "without a moment's hesitation."
He'd also consider Parker AZ, Brown PHI, Jennings TBR, Friedrich & Matzek COL and Turner DET over Aroldis Chapman.
Chop: It will be awfully interesting to come back to this article in a year. :- )
In the abstract, I agree with the idea that Chapman's logically viewed as a prospect. But once you start telling me you'd rather have relievers and 160-lb leadoff hitters and three Rangers farmhands ahead of a guy who, next ASB, could be Randy Johnson... something starts sounding kinda fishy.
I called Chapman the #3 last June, but last June included Stephen Strasburg. Really, Ackley and Chapman should probably be called 1a and 1b in that draft.
I'm all into the cautions until they start getting ahead of us. A lot of top scouts -- very possibly the Mariners', too -- think that Chapman is an ML star right now.
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Flip: John Manuel says that in the history of Cuban defectors, none of them have been comparable to Chapman -- not Contreras, El Duque, nobody.
Chapman, in Manuel's view, is "at least in the conversation" with Strasburg and Yu Darvish as "the world's great young power pitchers."
Chop: Nay verily on Strasburg, because Strasburg has the performance and results, which is what Callis also adds...
Still.
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Flip: Manuel quotes a scout as saying that San Diego didn't show Chapman at his best; he was "just OK" in San Diego but "unreal" in Mexico City.
"If you are looking for more than that in a pitcher, you'll be searching your whole life. He was so much fun to watch."
"He could go straight to the top of a big league rotation."
Chop: As you know, SSI's guess is that Chapman is better viewed as a prospect but it is also reasonably argued by many scouts that Chapman will be an instant star in the bigs.
Just because our guess is "prospect" doesn't mean the kid wouldn't be awfully scary slotted as the Angels' #3 to start next season.
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Flip: "He's on top of the hitter, his release has extension, he's got the ball coming out of there at 100 MPH. He's absolutely electric."
Chop: So you've got the Randy Johnson view of Chapman, for the record. :- )
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
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I'd be pretty amped if the Ms signed Chapman. He has his warts, but his stuff is already comparable to the top LH SPs in MLB.
I kind of doubt that he'll get his $40mil+, though I wouldn't be too suprised to see the bidding going up $20-$30mil.
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Chapman isn't Darvish thats for sure... If Darvish were a FA he'd get an $80-100mil MLB contract at minimum.
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I was more playing on the quote that Darvish is considered one of the "world's best young arms", but then we forget the Cy-Class season the 23-year-old King just threw in the REAL baseball league. Also, Darvish's been injured this season with shoulder fatigue.
Darvish is the next instant impact international pitcher, but I can see Chapman going on the Yuniesky Hyper Minors Tour and then nuking the MLB pretty quickly.
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I think one of the weaknesses of prospect watching is that there tends to be selective remembrance of past successes or failures, so the actual volatility and randomness of the projections versus results tend to get skewed either toward the "you just KNEW about AROD and Griffey" quips that pump up the scouts and top prospects as TRULY can't miss - OR, you get the littany of gaffes and hind-sight disasters that would seem to render prospect watching as a complete waste of time.
The reality is between - where in general terms, scouts are good, but the final results are very, very random. And terms like "once-in-a-lifetime" prospect are bandied about so routinely that they do become trivialized and meaningless. Doc believes Strasburg is a TRUE once-in-twenty-year prospect. But, there is a once-in-20 prospect identified by SOMEBODY every other year. So, take your prospect watching with a grain of salt.
As for cuban pitchers. How WAS Contreras viewed by BA? In 2003, Contreras was the #6 prospect in all of baseball, with only Jesse Foppert higher ranked as a pitcher. The top 4 prospects were position guys: Teixeira, Baldelli, Reyes and Mauer. Contreras was ranked well ahead of guys like Kazmir, Wainwright, Bonderman, Cliff Lee, Greinke, and Liriano. Judging guys that you have unfettered access to is difficult. Nobody REALLY trusts Japanese conversions. Cuban conversions have GOT to be even less reliable, (which means they could go EITHER way). But, it means the generic risk has got to be extreme.
Me? I take ALL quotes containing the words "once-in-a-lifetime" as dubious. Judged by my OWN life -- Maddux was one, (but there's no reasonable way I think you could SCOUT what Maddux ultimately accomplished). As hitters, Bonds was one ... and Pujols is a second, (making them twice-in-a-lifetime, right?). (That phrase - you use that phrase a lot. I do not think it means what you think it means).
There are 2 or 3 Hall of Famers inducted every year, which mean there are two or three Hall of Famers entering the majors every year. But not every Hall of Famer is a clear 1st ballot guy. But only about half of TOP FOUR picks make it to All Star -- so I'll continue to add my mental coin flip to the equation when the scouts start screaming wunderkind.
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Callis guessed 3x Strasburg, and Manuel (who likes Chapman better) guessed 2x Strasburg.
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In fact, a photo opp :- )