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The TNT pointed out this MLB Trade Rumors article, Predicting Tommy John Surgeries. The big takeaway: only one Mariner ranks in the top 100 riskiest Tommy John situations - that being Taijuan Walker at #90 with a 2% (???) chance of having such occur this year.
Bradley Moore and Tim Dierkes seem to have created a very, very robust method for predicting TJS. That's not to say it's prophetic, but it is certainly the state of the art as far as you and I know.
Further, we are told that shoulder injuries are becoming less and less the issue, since --- > the stronger the shoulder muscles, the safer the shoulder is, and they're getting really good at strengthening shoulders. So pitchers are "transferring" the injuries down to the elbow, the weak link. Ergo, if your elbow's okay, you're probably okay. Or so the song goes.
They even have a little interactive tool. Here are the Mariners' risk factors. 0% means that a pitcher's TJS risk factor is average across the MLB pitcher population:
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1. I guess the MLBTR crew doesn't agree with van Slyke about the state of Felix' elbow, eh?
2. (The guy at the bottom is Benoit.)
3. Iwakuma is the guy whose shoulder, not elbow, is the biggest issue. ...Still... well, BaseballHQ gives his health a pure F. Okay by Paxton and Karns, then?
4. Looks like another easy 200 innin's out of Miley. BaseballHQ also calls his health a Straight-A.
5. I don't get how the riskiest pitchers are at 5-6% if there were over 100 TJ surgeries last year across pro baseball.
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RISK FACTORS
Their article lists the following items as making you SAFER:
(1) Being left-handed. Check: that was Dr. D's understanding, also.
(2) Consistent release point. Check. Though we called it smooth mechanics.
(3) Days lost to ARM injury last year. Check. Could be your arm is hanging by a thread.
(4) No Previous TJS. *Not* check. I had thought one TJ replacement and you were set for life. :- ) Nope. One TJ leads to another.
(5) Bad ERA. *Not* check. I thought being a good pitcher made you safer. No, theory now is that good pitchers are saddles that get ridden hard and put away wet.
(6) Low raw number of fastballs. Well, sure.
(7) Older is better. Check.
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NONISSUES
(1) Velocity. This surprises Dr. D. He thought 96 MPH pitchers were safer. Not so.
(2) Breaking stuff. Throwing sliders doesn't doom you to TJ. Hm.
(3) Non-arm injuries. OK, so Felix' 2015 leg injury doesn't set him up for a 2016 arm blowout?
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TAKEAWAY
The M's have always been very careful about trying to keep their pitchers healthy - as all org's have. Thing is, the Mariners are sitting on a pitching staff that goes into 2016 much healthier than most teams'.
Good on them,
Dr D
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