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SUPERSTITION - THE ACCIDENTAL POSITIVE REINFORCEMENT OF RANDOM BEHAVIOR

It's a very, very good thing that stressed out major league players -- > hop over foul lines and keep the same sweat socks for 42 days and stuff like that.  How many hits does a given bat have in it?  It all goes to the issue of mental re-boots.

One of those dudes borrows a team-mate's bat, and gets two hits, and ... the best case scenario is that the lighter bat really improved something.  Or re-organized the hitter's thinking.  The worst case scenario is that the player felt re-booted, felt like the slump might have washed away.  We got no downside here!

ML hitters and pitchers are not like 24-handicaps in golf.  They're PGA Tour players.  Moe Dawg will probably confirm that when a great golfer goes into a slump, and flails about searching for a key "swing thought," it's more about the mental flow, the visuals involved, than learning how to swing a golf club.  But those little visuals can put you back in synch.  Sports is confidence.

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Said all that to say this:  17 of 20 times, when the TV talks about an "adjustment" a player made, Dr. D smiles.  Yeah.  You got no downside there.

But three times in 20, the adjustment meant something.  On a sliding scale, and leaving out 1-17, here are 18-19-20 for best results:

• #1 = ... 
• #2-17 = ... nuthin
• #18 = Hisashi Iwakuma gets his fingers more on top of the pitch, last time out
• #19 = Edgar talks Leonys into more top hand, less loop
• #20 = James Paxton moves his glove, and ergo his baseball cap, over towards 1B during the backstroke

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WBC-San Sharpens Up

Last time round, Mike Blowers reported that he'd talked to Mel Stottlemyre.  "What's the plan?"  "We figured out that Hisashi needs to stay on top of the ball a little more."  That's not chitter-chatter on the internet; that's what Iwakuma had directed his attention towards.  It's not about arm angle; it's about a 1/4-inch hand motion, finishing the pitch with a little snap to the ground, rather than cutting under it and sailing it.

And slap me silly if you couldn't see the results in the flight of the ball.  Here's the movement chart, catcher's POV:

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Notice that the shuuto is dropping below -0 inches vertical.  In fact all the movement is more vertical, up and down, and Iwakuma's pitches were noticeably sharper.  

But there was an even more juicy payoff:  when you finish any sports motion more 12-to-6, you're able to fine-tune your aim from left to right.  At the logical extreme you'd have a guy swinging an axe straight overhead to hit a chalkline on a log.  The more 12-6, the more often he'll hit the straight-up-and-down line.  And Iwakuma was indeed able to hit either side of the plate, first pitch.

On Saturday, Iwakuma threw vintage Iwakuma - as good as he can throw, any year, any outing.  The sizzling-hot Rangers -- in that Texas ballpark -- were swatting mosquitoes with willow switches, and did well to hold Kuma to seven strikeouts.

Iwakuma wasn't a meatball before his adjustment, and isn't a superstar now.  But it's the kind of adjustment that can put an SP back on top of his game quickly, and keep him there.  It's not a hard "swing key" to retain for the rest of the year.

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I had ventured a hazy guess that for some reason, Iwakuma's arm didn't seem to have quite the same juice in it.  I like the above explanation better.  :- )  Here is his long-term velocity graph.  Nothing much to see here.  He's not as fast as he was as a young man, but he's building as the 2016 season goes along.

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WADE MILEY

You got five ballplayers on the bench, and one goes out and hits three homers, you don't think they talk about what went right for the 3-homer dude?  Hard to imagine that Miley wasn't at least aware of Iwakuma's adjustment, and ... slap me SIDEWAYS if Miley did not also show the increased up-and-down movement.  And the ability to hit either side of the plate at will.

HIS movement chart last night:

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Note the 8" to 13" vertical hop on his fastball; this comes from more 12-to-6 overspin.  Also, the cutter has heavy sink and bite at the tail end.  Also also, if you saw the game, you saw Miley effectively bust right handers in for strike one, and feather his outside pitches to hit the black.  Sure as shootin' looked like the same adjustment from here.

When Wade Miley bites you inside and outside first pitch, and then goes to his snake-tongue 83 MPH fadeway change and 83 hard cutter, he can rack up lots of outs, real quick.  It's a good repertoire for flurry pitching.

Diderot has been asking very fair questions about Mel Stottlemyre Jr.  Great; put this one solidly in the plus column for Stottlemyre.  Usually, managers the caliber of DiPoto and Servais won't keep an assistant manager around long if they don't think his contributions are concrete.  But still, it's worth monitoring from a 'net rat's point of view.

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PULL DOWN THE WINDOW SHADE

Old timey baseball term for this particular pitching thought.  It's one of my faves, because it is Zen - simple, clean, easy once you grok it, repeatable.

Wade Miley (Hisashi Iwakuma) were always solid (very good) pro starting pitchers.  It's nice to see them on top of their games this time through, and we have thirteen kinds of reasons to think they'll be good from here on out.  Well, "from here on out" meaning indefinitely.

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TAIJUAN vs CARLOS CARRASCO, 7:10 PM

It's one thing to pitch badly; it's another thing to pitch like you're hurt.  Walker is sweating bullets and steering 91-MPH aimballs at little nibble corners of the plate, hoping they'll hit the ball at somebody.  Which wouldn't be so bad if you were Paul Byrd or Jered Weaver.  But our kid is supposed to be the physical reincarnation of Bob Gibson.

Could be the neck.  Like RockiesJeff reminded us in the Shout Box last Taijuan start, sometimes it's a very little thing that means the difference between 95 and 91.

Dr. D will be watching the game through little blinds in his fingers, and hoping to win 6-4 or 7-5.  More than that will be gravy.  It's all good, cuz next up is the KKKKarnivore and then Zeus.

Be Afraid,

Jeff