M's Bullpen Hits Choppy Waters
K-Pax and Diaz - panic moves or no-brainers... or both?

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We switch to the Sci-Fi channel, in which a bullpen can run a 0+ ERA for six weeks and then have an alien erupt out of its chest.  It's a funny thing - try to come up with a Cinderella championship baseball team in which the good guys have a Bobby Ayala-, Scott Sanders-bullpen but overcome it through starting pitching and controlling the zone. There's an unwritten rule that the villains have the technology and the underdogs have the Force or the Good Wizard or the Lost Ark.  The Lost Ark always being Greg Holland.

EXCUSES, EXCUSES

If, in one offseason, you lose Aldon Smith and Patrick Willis, lose Borland and Smith and Crabtree and Gore and Iupati and Davis and your quarterback turns out to be a fake and your head coach turns out to be somebody else's coach, it's a little harsh to call these "excuses."  Pompeii had a really good "excuse" for not showing up to work Monday.

On an only slightly smaller scale, the Mariners went into 2016 with Joaquin Benoit, Charlie Furbush and Tony Zych as their short relievers behind their closer.  That they would win 7 consecutive one-run games without these pitchers was wonderful, but it was never going to last.  Give the M's Joaquin Benoit for that Friday Karns game, and they're probably 24-13 right now.  That's not an excuse, because Mount Vesuvius has a way of affecting the course of events.

Jerry DiPoto was dealt a super cruddy hand in the bullpen.  He's bet his way into the pot.  Now he's got his first major in-season fix.  It's like the old joke:  a doctor pays a $200 bill for getting his carburetor fixed.  The mechanic sez, how come I get $75 an hour and you get $3000?  The surgeon smiles.  "Now try fixing the motor with the engine running."

We'll see how well DiPoto and Servais respond, in-season, to this budget crisis.

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Dr's R/X:

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JOEL PERALTA

Had a glorious last month in the sun.  Dr. D fully endorsed his use as a two-week Band-Aid, operative phrase "two week."  He ain't fooling anybody now.  Take yer money and run.  You know how the canary is the first thing to go when the coal mine gets poisonous?  This is sort of an inverse-negative of that:  the key sign for the health of the M's bullpen will be when Peralta begins his career in announcing.

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STEVE CISHEK

Saturday, every pitch seemed two feet off the plate or right down the middle.  Dennis Eckersley and Dan Quisenberry closed games from Laredo, but were not noted for this syndrome.

Cishek is liable to frazz in-and-out of his good form.  That's why I'd liked to have seen a Joaquin Benoit* close on Saturday - not on Friday, but the second game, on Saturday.  Go ahead and let Cishek close when everything seems in rhythm.  But use Benoit (or, later, Diaz or Paxton or Zych) when you've got an uncomfortable feeling about Cishek going into a game.

Hey, it's not exactly unprecedented to use two guys to close game.  Steve Cishek's feelers do not deserve precedence over the good of the ballclub.  Put Cishek into a co-Closer role and you're liable to get a decent season out of him.

Seattle Sports Insider would feel ONE THOUSAND PERCENT BETTER if Steve Cishek were one of two available closers for each game.

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JOAQUIN BENOIT

A bit unconventional to throw him back in there in this way, where he'll be the #1 guy deciding your W's and L's.  It's unconventional, and also exactly what Dr. D would do.

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MIKE MONTGOMERY

Gave up 4 runs in his third outing of the year, way back in 1787 A.D. ... er, April 11th.  Since then, he's thrown 10 games with 14.2 innings and ... six hits! with an 0.61 ERA.  Maybe the fix is to give him the tough innings now.  Hey, we don't say he's Andrew Miller, but if he gives you a 75% chance against the 2-3-4 hitters, maybe you take that gamble.

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JAMES PAXTON

On Sunday, threw another blizzard of strikes (53 strikes, 27 balls) and fanned 8 men vs 1 walk.  They pulled him after 4 IP and 80 pitches.  Admittedly, he gave up one homer and somehow they cobbled five runs.  But we go by peripherals, and particularly when it comes to James Paxton we go by one specific peripheral:  walks.

He's walked a grand total of 3 batters over his last 6 outings, against 33 K's.  I got yer "high-impact reliever" right here, Jerry.

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EDWIN DIAZ

So he had three bullpen outings going, no walks.  Sunday, though, he turned things around.  2.0 innings pitched, 5 strikeouts.

The sooner he is in Safeco and acclimating, the happier Dr. D will be.

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DR's PROGNOSIS

Acid test for DiPoto and Servais.  Will it take them one series to get the club back in synch, or will it take them three weeks?  And exactly what maneuvers will they execute to get there?

Lot of ways to find drama and sub-plots in 240 years' worth of U.S. History.  DiPoto's administration hits a key crossroads rather early.

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Enjoy,

Dr D

Comments

1

Of course there's a bit of panic involved.  Well, maybe panic isn't the perfect word....let's use "concern" instead.

Realizing that bullpens are inherently up and down, they live on the edge after all, let us not become Chicken Little.

All the same, it is pretty dang clear that Paxton and Diaz have better stuff than your average Peralta/Guaipe.

Call 'em up.  And don't give me that goo that Paxton/Monty/Nuno gives us one too many southpaws inthe BP:  For his career, Paxton allows RHB's to fluff out there a .208-.276-.321 line.  Lefties mostly rip him, but he's death on RHB's.  How deathly is he?  Felix has a career vR line of .232-.282-.335.  Kuma's is .230-.270-.390.  Paxton is just fine, thank you, vs. righty bats.

BTW, 'Kuma has run 1.0-1.1 WHIPs, like clockwork.  It is 1.4 in '16.  Hits are up, BB's are up, K's are down.  SSS, I know.  Just keeping an eye on it.

BTW, my man Pizzano has a 9-game hitting streak going and is thumping right hand chuckers to the tune of .340, yet he's sat two games running vs. righties.  Grrrrrrr......

2

With Benoit back, I'll be happy if they just have Benoit, Montgomery and Vincent pitching the high leverage innings. Heck, Nuno as well as long as he keeps getting results. 

Little strange to me that Johnson remained on the roster, with Guaipe sent down for Benoit. 

3

Johnson has no options left. If they DFA him to send him down, Cincinnati would claim him in a heartbeat; maybe also Texas or others with BP problems - in any case, he'd be gone. I think DiPoto is hedging Zych - when Zych gets healthy, he'll risk losing Johnson, but not before. So Guaipe and Nuno, who have options, will ride the shuttle until Zych and Furbush are ready. Then I expect Peralta and Johnson to get dropped.

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