Leonydas' Glory Shot
Dr. D takes baseball just a little too seriously

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Sigmund Freud said, "The energy released in laughing at a joke is the energy normally used to repress hostile and sexual feelings."  The latter being his obvious goal.  In all the archive of Sigmund Freud photos, there are none in which he has any expression other than the one above.

The M's TV broadcast crew doesn't share Herr Freud's philosophy.  The laugh track on Martin's homer is the best part.

Well, the best part for Leonydas is actually that his OPS+ is 820.  That's higher than Kyle Seager's or Seth Smith's.  He's on pace for 6.1 WAR and nobody's laughing now, least of all Dr. D or the Texas Rangers.  (Tom Wilhelmsen's ERA is 9.98 -- sooooo close! -- and he has 6 strikeouts against 6 homers and 8 walks in 15 innings.)

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NEUROZIS ISS ZE INABILITY TO TOLERATE AMBEEGUITY, sez Dr. Freud

It's never a great idea to Mainframe a player who is the middle of a glory run or in the middle of death throes.  Still and all, Martin has been covering the strike zone so (relatively) well that we thought it was high time for a 201 Scan.

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bzzzt

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whrrr

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bedeepdoop

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::WORKING::

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bzzt

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CONCISELY, NOW

The Mainframe doesn't see much in Leonydas' swing-or-take decisionmaking that has changed to cause his recent little hot streak.  If you look at his O-Swing rates for the year, or the last month, or during his hot streak, he's around 25-27% for the year.

But!  That used to be 35%, so Edgar and Robby do have him tightening his zone.  And it was 28% earlier; now it's constricting even a little more, to 24% or 25%.  

For the rest of it, like Matty sez, the SwStr% and so forth, it's not that big a deal.  

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What IS interesting, the heatmaps.  First the 2015 strike zone map, by ISO, and then the 2016:

2015 ISO
2015 ISO

2016 ISO
2016 ISO

Much better in 2016, of course.  The minor thing is --- > he's surprisingly okay with high pitches, as we'd kicked around earlier.  But what really strikes you is his ability to get out to the black, and pull it around the corner, the way Michael Saunders used to ... hm.  Check out his spray charts, first 2015 and then 2016:

Spray 2015
Spray 2015

Spray 2016
Spray 2016

As you watch Leonys swing ... the way pulls his ki around the corner, gets to the painted fastball, and falls out onto the plate with his back foot... then gets his taters right into the foul pole, is he reminding anybody else of the Condor?  Maybe the fact that Martin's hand is healed up, and the fact that he's getting coached up on his pitch selection, is pushing him up into the bottom* of Michael Saunders' offensive game.  

Hitting the outside of the baseball.

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Center Fielder AVG OBP SLG BB K OPS+
Saunders 2012-13 (25-26) .240 .315 .420 50 140 107
Saunders 2014 (27) .275 .340 .450 50 120 128
Leonydas 2016, 45 games (28, missed a year) .259 .337 .483 50 150 130
Leonydas realistic upside (?) .240 .315 .420 107 (feel free to rage)
but ... Saunders this year .322 .288 .570 160

Want an interesting statistical oddity? Last year Leonys' EYE was 16:69, while this year it's 16:43.  That's neat symmetry in the scale, and in Shandler terms, that's serious progress.  But right now Michael Saunders' EYE is ... wait for it ... 16:43.

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Players do benefit from change of scenery -- usually that means a swing key and a positive environment -- and maybe there was a latent Saunders-type in there.  Saunders is a long-lever guy, very centrifugal, whose natural movements create a sort of duck-hook 105 MPH danger for the pitcher.

If Edgar and Cano and the wrecking crew can steer Leonys onto some variation of Michael Saunders' career arc, it'd be okay with me.  Here is Mickey's b-ref card.

BABVA,

Dr D

Comments

1

He's red hot and rolling right now, the shorter heavier Boomstick bat seemingly having something to do with it.  

But not long ago he was just the opposite, Arctic cold.  He will regress some....but he's a real threat all the same*.

A long while back, I suggested that Ackley go with a shorter bat.  All kinds of studies done on golfers establish that not everyone benefits from a longer driver.  You don't even always get increased swingspeed, and when you do it is often negated because you don't get as good of contact.

If the key in swinging the bat is to "barrel-up" the ball, then it seems pretty clear that can be done more readily when the barrel is closer to you.

It wouldn't surprise me if the "swing weight" of the shorter/heavier bat is actually no more (it may be less) than the lighter longer bat.  Swing weight essentially measures the perceived weight of the club by measuring where the balance point of the club (bat) is.  The closer to the head (tip) then the higher the swing weight.  

While the Boomstick bat may actually be heavier, it may swing "lighter" or feel that way to our guy.

Especially on the inside stuff, he's going to be able to get the barrel to the ball more easily.

Or so I would summise.

Something's up:  Edgar, bat, alignment of Aquarius and Mars........Something.  I don't know what it is but I like it.

A walk-off tater like that, following Cano's missile, has a tremendous impact on the way a team goes about it's business when behind.  This team is beginning to believe it is fated to win a bunch of come-from-behind games.  

Beware the team with the Moirai sisters on its side.

* Although his versus lefties ability still worries me much!

4

There are few things I have found more enjoyable in life than watching King Leonys chest-kicking the evil orc messenger into the abyss last night. What a finish. 

Aoki steps to the plate and I got the feeling it was over.Then he somehow gets on base and Leonys stepped up and it was like, oh, maybe we DO have a shot..

And, wow, what a shot it was. A powerful, well-placed blow directly to the orc sternum setting up a pre-ordained 5-0 win tonight to take the series.

Well played Leonys. Well played. 

5

I know this is about Leonys...because the dude hits bombs. :)  But I think Mike Montgomery (or, as I call him, Mike Monkey) is an aircraft carrier of a weapon for a post-season bound team.  Remember how much easier it was for Lou to manage his bullpen innings down the stretch when we had both Halama and Tomko in it? :)

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