Interesting chess moves all over the diamond -- full details at Stalk.
As Moe notes, Franklin at 2b second day in a row; Triunfel remains lodged at SS.
Liddi and Vinnie flip; Liddi at 3b, Cat in LF (L-Rod to 1b).
Romero moving up the ladder at 2b.
It looked like they'd given up on Proscia at 3b, but he was back there Friday.
***
Tea leaves: 3b is no longer "a problem" for which they need to groom Liddi or Cat? They're going to look at both of them at LF, for which Cat is more naturally suited. Anyway, that was his very first time in left this season, and he had a good game at the plate.
Perhaps Ichiro, Carp and Smoak are increasingly viewed as the "weak links"? (Carp due to injuries more than performance?)
And that means Ackley seeing more time at 1b as his "secondary position"? Therefore Franklin ready to see time at 2b? First is one place that Ackley can move more-or-less "effortlessly" (his everyday position in college due to arm issues).
More broadly, I think they want most of the guys to be able to move around the diamond, and it could just be that.
***
Olivo is a short-term headache at best. How many potential C do we have? Montero, Jaso, Zunino, Moore is back at AAA, Sucre has impressed in AA, Hicks and Marder were both all-stars, Baron is looking solid (finally) at Clinton, Littlewood is in Everett, and Marlette at Pulaski.
That's 10. And they still list Choi as a C, though he hasn't played there.
I think Olivo is a bone that Z is letting Wedge chew on for awhile, but it won't last. But it's up to Guti and Smoak and Carp to force him out of the lineup, really.
=== Casper Wells ===
There was a number of months there where Dr. D was saying, if you like what Michael Saunders could be, why wouldn't you like what Casper Wells is?
He's very short to the ball, he's Sexson-powerful and he sees the ball well. If he merely does what he's been doing that's a 123 OPS+ with "tweener" (very likeable) defense in the outfield. Here, a sophisticated, thickly-reserached chart for your edification:
| Player | OPS+, career |
| Casper Wells | 123 |
| Jay Buhner | 124 |
No, LrKrBoi29, the point isn't that Casper Wells is going into the Mariner Hall of Fame. The point is that Casper Wells is one of those players whose on-field effectiveness is higher than you think it is.
He's underrated. You've been watching him play all along and you never realized that he so far has been, right in front of you, contributing as much or more as Bone did. He's a stealth player.
Wells, as so many Jack Zduriencik targets, indeed has physical talent that exceeds the physical talent of other quality MLB players. He's got Sexson-ish power at the plate and Saunders-ish footspeed in the outfield. Zduriencik dials in on these physically special players. Casper Wells, and the other Detroit guy Charlie Furbush, is physically special.
Physically special, plus 123+ OPS reality to date, equals ... well, a lot.
You can't speed by the issue of Overexposure. It's a real question for Wells. But we'll all agree that Wells has earned: A Long Look. That's surprisingly tough to come by, considering he's fighting for PT in a ..... 90-loss organization. It's comin', man, it's comin'.
.
=== Michael Saunders ===
Think we've covered this one lately.
When you spend three years hoping to roll box cars, and then you roll the box cars, you don't wander off in disinterest. If the Mariners do anything now, other than ride Michael Saunders to several years of cheap production, their last three years were stupid.
We're guessing that you can also take it from here, as to what the Mariners should do about this incessant call to move Dustin Ackley to the outfield...
.
=== Kewl Problemo to Have ===
Earl used to deploy 4, 5 outfielders to his (great) advantage. He would create an effective 5.0 WAR platoon at two spots in the outfield.
But! Earl would do this with platoon outfielders, Gary Roenicke and Ken Loewenstein and Terry Crowley and guys like that. He didn't take five different 4.0 WAR outfielders and consign them to part-time roles.
What a team would do with a legit 4-5 impact outfielders, if that's what occurred, you tell me :- )
Comments
Love that Gut is showing some pop. Hope they can keep him healthy. A star when hes right. I'm amazed that Saunders can stroke with such power with that half-swing.
Not sold on Wells or Carp yet, but they could be part of a 'soft' platoon in the future.
We're developing a lot of assets.
We need to figure out how we're deploying those assets.
- Catricala has struggled immensely this season, and for a guy with a beautiful, simple swing that he understands that's a little weird. You don't go .850 / .875 / 1.000+ / .650 with your OPS as you climb the ladder unless something went wrong. He's striking out exactly as much as he ever has - they're not busting out gyroballs on him or something.
IMO, Vinnie made a concerted effort on his defense (he's said as much) and nothing's different. Is playing defense getting in his head? That's what they said about Alex Gordon - his defensive struggles destroyed his focus in the bigs, and the move to LF is what allowed him to finally be productive at the plate in the majors.
With Seager holding down 3rd nicely for us, I can absolutely see us moving The Cat to a corner OF spot, to see if that helps his plate mentality. But that just increases our outfield crowding.
- Liddi...he has to Austin Kearns his way onto some roster, right? It probably also won't be at 3rd, but you could use him as an OF/1B and he'd get a lot of pinch-hitting action in the NL. He's got a ML future in front of him - but where does he fit with us?
- Franklin. Here's something to keep in mind with Nick: he commits an error every 4 games (56 errors at SS in 216 games). That's not BJ-Upton-level (which was every 2.5 games), but it's not good. He's better at 2nd, but with a million OF options we're not moving Ackley off the position, especially since Ryan is our only glove SS within several miles of the bigs.
But I'm curious to see if Franklin stays as a majority-2B for a while, because then I would think a trade is in the works. You don't move your best prospect to understudy the same position as your top draftpick and current 3 WAR starter unless he's Upton-ing it (which Franklin isn't yet) or you're planning something. Probably. ;-)
- Brad Miller is on pace to hit 50 doubles this year. In fact, here's the Miller-to-Seager comparison in the Cal League:
Seager: .345/.420/.500, .75 eye, 40 / 3/ 14 in 650ish PAs.
Miller: .320/.410/.525, .8 eye, 25 / 3 / 8 in 330ish PAs.
Same age, same handedness, same home park. Miller's made an error every 3 games at SS, so he's riding the Upton Line. I don't think he's a SS long-term, which means he too is moving to 2B or 3B. He's a .300/.380/.420 hitter on the road in the minors, plenty for 2B.
We don't have anyone that we're showing full confidence in to plug our offensive SS hole.
We have several people we'll have to move to get them out from behind Ackley or Seager.
We have 5 outfielders (Wells, Seager, Guti, Ichiro, Carp) already providing plenty of major-league depth at those positions.
We can't trade Ichiro without his permission.
Guti needs to show he's healthy to regain his value, which will take longer than the trading deadline.
We still have no MOTO, our no-hit SS is leading us in WAR, we refuse to rest our 38 year old OF more than once every 2 months, and yet... our offense is performing better than our pitching.
I can't argue that we're assembling a large collection of young talent, but it's definitely not coming together as a winning whole yet. Growing pains suck. Unfortunately it doesn't look like we can add a lot more from the minors at this point that doesn't duplicate what we're already getting in the bigs.
There's no clubbing outfielder on the farm right now. There's no offensive SS. There's no mashing first baseman. We need some of the guys already on the team to fill some of those holes.
If Carp comes back and clubs, AND Wells hits well, AND Guti and Saunders deserve to stay on the field...
Then some other positions need to go. Carp can play 1B or DH, but that means Smoak or Olivo need to move out of the way. Ditto Liddi. Four decent outfielders plus an immovable icon in RF on a team with no MOTO means all four of those guys need to be actively deployed.
Have I mentioned that one of our best hitters on the season can't even get into half the games because Olivo's in his way? The kids have to play, not just because we need to get them the experience but because they're the ones performing.
Trade deadline's in a month - I expect both vets and kids to get shuffled around to achieve a coherent roster and possibly add in a vet that would comfort Wedge while also performing ON THE FIELD - a remarkable concept we haven't been able to manage in recent years.
The lineup's still very much in flux, and unlike the rotation we don't have plug-n-play options from the farm for immediate improvement. Maybe - unlike the rotation - we won't need it, but I still think Trader Jack's gonna need to work more magic.
~G
Olivo is really in the way of those guys, Doc. His AB's always keep somebody else out of the lineup. Miggy isn't coming back, either.
But this is a great post.
Watching Saunders sit was a bit frustrating. I want him in there, day in and out....and Wells, too. I am very confident about their 115+ OPS+ abilities. Carp will mash. Guti now becomes a bit of an issue. Is he is or is he isn't?
He's a $7M man next year. Then he's a $7.5M man, if we hold on to him, for the year following.
Then he's expensive, if he's a player.
At $7-7.5M he's an interesting case. Either he's really cheap, or..at 29, this year...he's in the way.
I've always felt he was a 4th OF, because of the huge vL/vR split...and because he's just not ever been that good of a bat.
So the M's really have to decide this year what they want to do with him.
2nd best case? It could possibly be that he hits just enough to convince somebody else he's worth a trade.
And it is possible that Smoak's development, or undevelopment, over the next 3 months may influence the M's Guti outlook.
If Smoak ends up as a 22 homerun, 85 OPS guy.....well then you start looking at Carp as a 1B type. And then you have no worries about too filled of an OF.
And then there's Liddi. Where does he fit? (I like his bat, quite a bit)
Not to mention Vinnie's coming up, too.
When Carp becomes available, the M's must make a choice to get all their MLB bats in the lineup as much as possible. He has to play, just like he did the last 1/2 last year, when he was a mashing masher.
Let them shake out.
Olivo is really the guy blocking more of that than anybody else.
But Wedge has a huge dirt dog catcher/grizzled vet crush on Olivo. Olivo is what Wedge thought he was as a player.
Houston, we have a collision.
At some point this year, or next ST, the M's have to place their bets and go with that. They have to say, "These are the guys I'm dancing with!" and fill in around from there.
I am less sure, or more pessimistic. of Guti and Smoak than I am of any other potential bat we have.
Saunders changed my mind, maybe they will, too. However, Saunders had clearly extablished something of a mashing (platoon) value before he became totally lost and loopy. He came out the other side with more value yet.
Go team
moe
PS: A question: Franklin rolls into Tacoma and immediately plays 2B for his first two starts. Does it mean anything? Maybe it's Daren Brown (who I think I like a lot) deferring to Triunfel for a few games, since Carlos is a deserving 22-year old veteran, as you know. Maybe it is something else. If it is something else it means that the M's are moving Ackley off of 2B.
I can't see that as being the case. Ackley has actually turned into a fine 2B. Fielding at a .992 clip this year (two errors, both throwing) and having a decent UZR/150.
Anyway, Frankin must fit somewhere, and he isn't going to 3B. The M's have not shown much desire to play bat first SS's. Maybe the two starts at 2B in Tacoma means zilch. Maybe not, however. Place your bets.
In 2009, the relevant year IMHO, he was .260/.310/.370 vs right and .330/.410/.550 vs left.
His supporters could argue well, in Safeco, that's average-mediocre vs RH and excellent vs LH, which is what a lot of highly-paid 110 OPS+ guys do...
His detractors (including me) could argue that Mike Carp and Michael Saunders and John Jaso are going to hit a lot better than .260/.310/.370 vs RH.
Bottom line: if four OF's wind up getting 120 games each, Gutierrez certainly dovetails into that well, getting 40 games off against tough RH's.
Maybe we can migrate, over the next few months, to a process in which we do that for 'nested' topics like this. :- ) I'm game.
Which is also part of the Grand Vision at Klat, as far as I know... use of multiple websites as seamlessly as multiple pages within a single site.
See you over there in a minute Spec.
In which they seemed to have a half-lineup of legit ML impact rookies landlocked in AAA...
Zduriencik, given elbow room to run his player development full sway, may wind up with 1-and-a-half lineups blocked at AAA...
Then comes the time to trade four Wellses and Furbushes for one Doug Fister...
You're getting these 5 OF's who have to be sorted out, you've got Liddi and Nick Franklin banging the door down
NOW YOU NEED THAT DH SLOT ALREADY.
Bah humbug.
Last game he looked good, but I'm still perfectly wiling to sell high on him. When you can't hit righties and your only good year is BABIP-inflated to a severe degree... oof.
We can't sell high on him this year, but I'd LOVE to see a good year out of Guti because it raises his value as well as enabling a trade on a different asset if for some reason we trust him to stay healthy and productive going forward.
Keep it up, Guti - assuage my fears. Now I'm off to see Hultzen's first AAA start and see Franklin club a ball at high altitude.
~G
Earl would do this with platoon outfielders, Gary Roenicke and Ken Loewenstein and Terry Crowley and guys like that.
Hmm. I remember a Ken Singleton. And a John Lowenstein...
It's a funny thing: when Guti's hot, he's banging sharp grounders into the SS hole. Not sure whether a .320, .330 BABIP is feasible for him ... for his career it's .308 and that includes the sickly time....
I'm not proposing that Guti could hit any better than league average. 'course if he's one of the game's 10-20 best defenders in the middle of the diamond, that's an asset... IF it occurs...
Slap me silly, is Guiterrez 30 next year? His kind of player is frequently over the hill at 31, 32.
Whether the Zito change-curve is as advertised, arm action, thrown in unpredictable counts etc ...
Whether RH hitters are swinging out in front of the change...
Whether people are late on the fastball...
Come back with your shield or on it, mate...
I almost commented on that career high BABIP in '09, but I hadn't realized his at-home numbers were so out of whack. You know what, those are weirdly similar to Figgins' unsustainable (but lucrative to him) .391 BABP in '07. You get rich, and then eventually booed, with a one-year split like that.
In '09 Guti was .317-.386-.440 at home/.249-.290-.409 on the road. Yikes.
In '10 he was slightly better at home, too. But that year the numbers were quite mortal.
All that may cause me to round down his upside numbers.
His age arc is a real question. Do you resign an expensive, glove first, CF after his age 30 or 31 season?
There is no way that Guti suddenly becomes a batting star. It isn't going to happen.
The hope is that he isn't a black hole in the lineup. In '09 he was a decent bat with a great glove.
Let's assume Saunders is real, at his current level of whacking.
Then the question is whether you would rather bet on a sustainable Guti bat plus his glove over a Carp or Wells or Catricala or Liddi or ? bat.
I don't know. A 100 OPS+ Guti is a very nice piece.
I'm not packing an 80 OPS+ CF, however.
Place your bets. The M's will eventually have to.
moe
L Rod might make a decent offensive SS.
If he has to play one of his hitters at DH, then he has to play Montero at C and no room for Miggy. But with the injuries and streakiness, he hasn't been forced there yet.
Liddi and Vinnie flipped back, with Liddi back in LF. Franklin had another double.
***
G: there is a clubbing OF, but he's injury-prone ... Julio Morban
And it's super-early, but you can't ask for a better start than Taylor Ard -- 10 hits, 5 walks and only 3 K in his first 31 PAs.
But over Olivo's last 101 PA, he's batting .245/.260/.480 despite a .257 BABiP, he's not exactly a black hole. Matt mentioned Ichiro's performance after a day off, Olivo is much the same, and now that Wedge is dedicating himself to the plan of rotating the 3 catchers regularly, Olivo is starting to pick himself up from the extra rest and be a dangerous bat despite the despicable K/BB ratio of 11/1 (over those last 101). And before anyone snaps back how Olivo isn't part of the future, here's what Montero did during Olivo's absence, starting from his 4th straight game catching:
.182/.257/.333 with 20 K in 74 PA starting in 18 out of 20 games, 12 catching, a relatively gentle ratio.
And since Olivo came back, after Montero got a day off and came back to the DH slot:
.301/.341/.434 with 16 K in 88 PA while starting in 20 out of 22 games, 7 catching. (this doesn't include tonight, which will obviously make that line look worse.)
Yes, I realize it's a small sample, but Wedge said putting Montero into more games as catcher than he was ready for would be a detriment to his progress, and he appears to have been right. I don't think Wedge has a man crush on Miguel Olivo, yes he likes the way he plays, but there are real reasons for Wedge playing Olivo as consistently as he has beyond how he personally handles the pitching staff. While I would like to see Jaso see more time behind the plate, I do have to defer to Wedge on his knowledge of exactly how it affects the team.
Why declare Guti's 393 home BABIP "out of whack" and then look past his equally unsustainable road BABIP (which was bizarrely low)...I think that's just "one of those things"...not something you make too much soup off of. I agree, however that the overall BABIP was a bit elevated in 2009 and I don't particularly like his odds of hitting more than .260 even healthy.
His road BABIP in '09 was .274.
If .300 is a "standard" BABIP, then he was 10% below it on the road, and 30% above at home. That's a huge difference.
I would assume that you will find a whole lot more .274 BABIP's, no matter where you look, than you will .390+.
Interesting idea - Nick Franklin or Ackley as trade bait.
Because "Safeco-defeating" is not something I think Guti will do. So far, his numbers in the Safe look good compared to some other numbers, but since I think that was a mirage it's not something that should be counted in his favor going forward.
Now maybe I'm wrong. I'd love to be wrong. But for me, the ledger can't give him a plus on handling the Safe with a BABIP that high, so a return to his career high-water mark will require plusses in different areas than he used to get to that high-water mark the first time.
It's not a repeatable season as earned the first time around.
~G
At this link here.
I'll re-post on the front page for you to riff off of, if you like.
~G