=== Dr's Diagnosis ===
Of one thing you can be sure: put three CF's in Safeco and you're going to get nice defensive impact. (The 2009 Mariners didn't have impact infielders, except Beltre.)
Of one thing you CANNOT be sure: that a great DER in Safeco will repeat from one year to the next. In 2001, for example, the M's DER was "eerily better than the rest of the league," according to Baseball Prospectus. But in 2002, that DER reverted -- with Mike Cameron still in center, Ichiro in right, and a better outfielder (Mark McLemore rather than Al Martin) in right.
If you are thinking that all the M's have to do is put three CF's out there next year, and they'll run a #1 ERA despite mediocre pitching ... we advise you to check 2002, when their ERA+ dropped from 118 to 104.
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My Prime Computation is that there was some synergy going on, notably Jarrod Washburn's, but also other SP's, as the starters pitched with purpose and the fielders -- properly positioned -- ran down the fly balls.
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=== Dr's Prognosis ===
The 2001-to-2002 transition taught us ... what? It taught us that the Safeco Synergy is not as easy as, "just bring back the great outfielders and the rawhide-tough mound warriors. You'll lead the league in ERA year-in and year-out.
The perfect storm of 2009's #1 ERA isn't likely to be easy to repeat. It's not like the Mariners have come up with a ballpark, and a set of outfielders, that Entitle them to a #1 ERA with any pedestrian set of Clydesdales on the mound.
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On the other hand, just from common sense, the Mariners' park and OF's is of course a big advantage.
IFF Capt Jack and Wok have their pitchers going out there with an idea, the fielders taking sophisticated positions, the 2010 staff will be running downhill.
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[Felix plus four okay starters] is going to give you a 110-ERA situation. Felix was at 174 this year, and considering that run of 25 quality starts to finish the year, you figure him for 150+ next year. Four guys averaging 95-100 and boom, that's the 110 that makes you elite.
Four more guys who do a decent job? Sure. Wak and Capt Jack have shown their willingness and ability to pick the right Scrubs out of a fluid set of options. Other clubs wind up with an Entitled Vet who posts a 70 ERA+ and ruins the average. The M's don't do that.
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I think the conditions are right for an elite ERA in 2010, but IMHO those conditions start with Wakamatsu's ability to coax the best out of what pitching he's given, and to swap out #4 and #5 starters who are fouling up the rotor with their fishing lines. The elite ERA then finishes with the great park-and-CF's context.
Give Snell and/or Morrow half a chance to break out, give Bedard/Web b/Harden a hundred and fifty innings, and the 2010 staff could be a lot better than in 2009. This year, it was baling wire and a prayer. Next year I'd like to see the staff jell.
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=== Dr's R/X ===
The context is great. Safeco helps, and any time I can put three CF's out there, I'll do that. Silentpadna and I have been saying that since the 2000 season.
But I think the single biggest key to the elite ERA is that Wakamatsu and Capt Jack do not get the 75's in the back of the rotation that other front offices get.
Jack and Don play Stars & Scrubs, they keep the 3-4-5 slots fluid, and they are just flat gooood at picking the right guys and then at coaching them.
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I think the magic pixie dust around Jarrod Washburn is a loss for 2010. That's what, 20, 30 runs' worth of magic gone forever.
But OTOH, and I don't know if the RotoChamp agrees with me here :- ) we now get to play a season without the cultural disconnect (and -2.00 CERA's) at catcher.
A little hard work, and the 2010 ERA might improve.
Cheers,
Dr D
Well now that Johjima and his -100 OPS are gone logically the '10 ERA has to get drastically better. Losing 100 OPS with half of your IPs means the Ms with the same pitching staff should run a 3.2 ERA or whatever.
If it doesn't its an admittance that the CERA arguments weren't even remotely valid.
If the "bonus" to the ERA's doesn't show up. No argument.
Jarrod Washburn lived a charmed life in 2009, and we were going to lose that in any case, but if the disconnect had any real substance to it, then yeah. The M's would benefit from eliminating that disconnect.
In Joh's defense, Wakamatsu downplayed this factor, and I was thrilled to see Silva replaced when he tried to rev up the Johjima-blaming again in 2009.
Thats fair enough.
The M's pitching will probably improve this offseason through FAs/trades/growth from current pitchers, so logically the Ms should get better. If they don't improve, its a clear indication that we were making a whole lot out of nothing.
It will be sweet to watch Johjima-san play where he's appreciated, SLG about .500, and masterfully coax career performances out of half-a-dozen pitchers with his new team.
Japanese and American players sort of walk around each other avoiding conflict, but the nature of the catching position forced them into a phone booth together, so to speak. The first returns were disappointing, and 80% the fault of the Americans, I would say.