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Does Mike Zunino go into March with a chance to hit .423 and to start at catcher on Opening Day?  ... in this case Dr. D will shoot for the Derek Jeter oppo-field single, take his base, and let better men round out the discussion.  Only have time for a couple of the most fundamental talking points; we'll let better men attack the more sofistikated issues, such as how Zunino's timeline affects Jesus Montero's position.

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=== Skipping the Minors:  SLOPS ===

If you look at this record of the 2011 draft -- not the 2012 draft, now, the 2011 draft -- you won't find a single hitter who played in the majors last year.  Or at least I couldn't find one.

That's the equivalent of saying that, from Zunino's draft, not one hitter would play in the majors next year even in September -- not one hitter of any type, much less a catcher doing it.  We're not saying it's impossible; SSI has little use for dogma.  We're triangulating a sense of proportion, and that sense of proportion is that batters usually don't skip the minor leagues.  That's essentially what Zunino would be doing, to play in Seattle in April, or even in June.

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The three fastest catchers we recall .... Buster Posey, Matt Weiters, Yasmani Grandal.  (Somebody check me on this; it's from memory.  The dullest pencil is better than the sharpest mind, and ours wasn't real sharp to start with....).  All those guys played over a year in the minors, one full year, plus parts of others.  Those were the fastest catchers to hit the beach.

There have been a few hitters who more-or-less skipped the minors ... Ryan Braun was super quick.  Ryan Zimmerman was quick if we recall correctly.  Bryce Harper, wowza.  But the operative word is "few."

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=== Talent Over Method:  PROPS ===

There is such a thing as "See Ball Hit Ball."  There are indeed a few guys whose approach transcends pitch sequences.

Ken Griffey Jr. was a major league player, and a good one, as a teenager.  He just sat fastball and adjusted anything else.  "You start messing around and looking for this or that, and all of a sudden he's snuck a 37-mile-an-hour fastball by you," the Kid said back in 1989.

Bryce Harper, the same.  Harper played extremely well in 2012 and I'll guarantee you that Mike Zunino has more plate experience than Harper had.

Pete Incaviglia skipped the minors, slugged close to .500 right out of college as we recall.  You know about John Olerud.  There was a guy, Paul Molitor, who was essentially as good the day he was drafted as he'd ever be.  Barry Bonds, IIRC, played less than a year of the minors.

Somebody once tried to talk to Yogi Berra about Ted Williams-style "taking pitches away" from the enemy hurler.  Yogi went up and struck out three times or something.  He growled, "How do you expect a guy to think and hit at the same time?"

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=== Dr's Diagnosis ===

Mike Zunino has indeed grabbed a wooden bat, parachuted into four different leagues (NCAA, NWL, Southern, AFL), and been totally comfortable in the first games.  Four times.  You look at his swing and at his short stroke and you definitely get the impression that he could be a See Ball Hit Ball kinda guy.

Johnny Bench was totally comfortable hitting in a new league while catching at the same time.  Gary Carter, who is Zunino's upside comp now, hit extremely well in the majors at age 21.  Carter's EYE, his BB/K ratio, and his defensive catching, were superb from day one in the majors.  Zunino may be in the same template.

Every teenager who ever played -- such as Johnny Bench -- is living testimony to the fact that hitters don't have to know what's coming.  (Bench was an ML catcher at 19, an All-Star catcher at age 20, the best player in the league at ages 21-22.)

Every young catcher who ever made the All-Star team -- such as Pudge Rodriguez, who was an ROY candidate at 19 and an All-Star at age 20 -- reminds us that not every player is confused by catching and hitting at the same time.  Some players are actually helped by playing two ways at the same time.

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=== Slops and Props Bonus Round ===

Jesus Montero hits better when he's squatting behind the plate that day:

This isn't "small sample size" (sic).  Watch a game.  Some guys hit better when they're sweating, dude.  I dunno if most guys hit better as DH.  I can assure you that even if most do, Jesus Montero is not one of them.

Montero's catching is a factor that has to be taken into consideration when you're talking about Zuumball.  SLOPS to icing the shooter, when you're talking about Jesus Montero.  

I'll bet you a dollar that this is why the Mariners are going to use Jesus Montero at first base.  From the dugout, they are of course aware that Montero hits better when sweating.  (That's a famous Pete Rose line.)

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Another factor that deserves its own discussion:  the question of whether you want to sacrifice Buster Posey's MVP age-29 season to get his fairly-good age-22 season.   If Capt Jack did think that Zunino were ready to hit 30 bombs in 2012 ... he'd still Super Two him, wouldn't he?  Ready, set, discuss...

SLOPS to the idea of sacrificing club control of a prime year for Zunino.  We don't say that's the end of the discussion.  It's a cost associated.

..........

If Mike Zunino did turn out to be one of your 25 best players for 2013, that would make him one of "The Natural" types, like Harper, like Junior, like Bench and Pudge and Carter, a guy who's likely headed for the Hall of Fame some day.

Visually, that's what he looks like early on.  Physically he looks like The Natural.  Delicious problem for Capt. Jack.

Cheers,

Dr D

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