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just curious. :)
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So Dipoto ran on a "run prevention model," more "athleticism in Safeco" and all the rest of it. Once he took office, he Twittered the M's into the #2 offense in the American League:
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| Batter | Runs Created per 27 Outs | Remark |
| Segura,ss | 7.1 | |
| lf | ||
| Cano, 2b | 6.5 | |
| Cruz, dh/rf | 7.1 | and it was 8.0 the year before |
| Seager, 3b | 6.2 | |
| 1b | ||
| rf | 4.9 | Trade bait sez they |
| c | 5.5 | don't count on a repeat, but he's got upside |
| cf | ||
With the two good-looking kids, Gamel and Haniger, vying for the two slot. Heredia, Ruiz C and the SS (couldn't be Freeman, could it?) being the bench.
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COHERENCY AND OPPORTUNITY
Dr. Detecto is ALL FOR the fact that Jerry Dipoto slammed a "Run Prevention Model" and the need for an "athletic, more useful" roster ... and then stuffed his roster with Dae Ho Lees and bat--first-FIRST corner outfielders. It speaks to flexibility of mind.
Here's the question. IF you have a guiding moral compass (Run Prevention Model) and the opportunity to get Adam Lind, how do you mesh those two things? Tell you exactly how.
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You run into this problem in chess all the time. Personally I am a "prophylactic" chess player - trying to suppress my opponent's piece activity and play, while building slight technical advantages myself that will weigh heavily once the pieces have been exchanged. That's my style, and I'm much better in that kind of position than in a wide-open tactical slugfest.
But! Supposing my opponent plays BADLY into a wild tactical slugfest where he has a bad game. I've got to be ready to exploit that, right? Right. In fact the world-class players will take absolutely any position at all -- and play it from the Black side or the White side, either way. They are ecumenical.
Supposing I've got a choice between a technical position with a +0.33 score (1/3 of a pawn better) or a chaotic position with an +0.50 score. Personally I'm far better with the +0.33 position. But! What if the choice is between a quiet, technical position with a +0.33 score or a wild position with a +1.33 score? Then I've got to show courage.
Coherency is the master, opportunism the servant. Coherency is the maypole --- > from which you venture out to grab random chances that flit by.
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Pete Carroll's guiding principle is to SIT on the football game. That is what he believes. BUT! What if it turns out he has Tom Brady as his main asset? And he's getting 6.1 yards out of the shotgun, vs. 4.8 yards under center? He's got to have the courage to DEPART FROM his moral compass in order to --- > exploit the opportunity.
That's how it works. You start with your beliefs, and then you judge case-by-case whether you are being "paid" enough to play in another style. The moment you are confused, you revert to your moral philosophy. But guys like Pete Carroll don't get confused all that much. ... maybe in Tampa Bay ...
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Dipoto judged Taijuan Walker to be more towards "problem" than towards "asset" than the average GM would. So he's got four stars on offense and he'll play that way. There is no way in the world that a committee of lawyers can deploy 3rd-order thinking of this nature. For one thing, there is no way in the world to articulate your most subtle chess thoughts in a boardroom setting. For another thing, all strategy and tactics must be acceptable to the most risk-averse member of the committee. There are many other problems. A committee cannot play chess against an artist.
With Mather and Dipoto, the Mariners now have a chance.
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OTHER 6.2 to 7.1 RUNS PLAYERS
We got four of 'em. Around baseball in the AL, this level of "Control the Zone" slugger is not super common. Kyle Seager at 6.22 was the #18 batter in the AL last year, and he's the #4 hitter in the lineup now.
Between 6.2 and 7.1 RC/27 there were only 9 players in the AL other than Seattle's (and 6 superstars above that). Players in this range include:
- J.D. Martinez
- Adrian Beltre
- Brian Dozier (?!)
- Manny Machado
- Edwin Encarnacion
- Hanly Ramirez
- Carlos Santana
- Jose Ramirez
- Ian Kinsler
LOL. A lot of Latin players on that list, and three of Seattle's four were born in Central America. ... anyway, back in the 1980's Bill James would have said something like, "The Mariners' offense consists of four Edwin Encarnacions and five average hitters."
Be Afraid,
Dr D
Comments
2
Would be interested to know what you think about Jeff Sullivan's analysis. Linked in the separate article.
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Sullivan essentially shows the data that proves out exactly what Edgar Martinez told Trumbo to do. Close your front side so you can hit the pitch away or lay off a bit more accurately, and then hit the stuffing out of inside pitches, because your bat is fast enough to do that. He did that in August/September of 2015. He did that all year in Baltimore. He'll do that until his bat slows down with age.
Point being...Martinez fixed him and I would, in Dipoto's place last year, have NEVER traded Trumbo for Lind and a wasted three prospects on a cruddy back-up catcher (the essential trade-off). But it's good to see that Dipoto can acknowledge when he made an error and change course to correct it. :)
4
So, the AL now has its own "super team" to match the Cubs in the NL.
Let's match up (note: subjective findings may apply):
LF Benintendi > Gamel
CF Bradley = Martins
RF Betts > (anybody)
3b Sandoval < Seager
SS Bogaerts = Segura
2B Pedroia < Cano
1b Moreland = Vogelbach/Valencia
C Leon/Swihart = Zunino/Ruiz
DH Hanley = Cruz
OK, so far not too bad. I call it even. But let's move on..
S1 Price > Felix
S2 Sale > Paxton
S3 Porcello > Iwakuma
S4 Wright > Karns
S5 Buchholz > Miranda
CL Kimbrel = Diaz
R2 Thornburg > Cishek
R3 Kelly > (take your choice)
Hey, I'm all for total WAR...but can Trumbo also fit into the rotation? :)
5
...we will be a good to great team offensively...110 OPS+ good. But our pitching is...average at best.
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given what we have to offer, which presmably availabe starters would you be targetting?
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If we are willing to give up Tyler O'Neill and Gohara, I'd go after Archer. If we don't want to go higher than just Gohara, then I'd target Odorizzi, and if we want to try to keep both of those two, then I'd target Scott Kazmir.
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Gohara and parts get you Odorizzi. Maybe Quintana, too....Whelan has to be part of those deals. + a bat and another prospect.
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Clay is a FA after this coming season so he shouldn't cost a prospect fortune. Pomeranz is more likely, and more expensive. He's got two arb years left and could easily be extended (if we felt like paying the price).
The Pomeranz cost would almost certainly include Gohara. Back in a big park with heavy sea air for half the year, though, Drew could be pretty much what DiPoto is looking for, and his struggles in Boston might help lower the cost slightly. He and Odorizzi should be about the same, and Boston is interested in the prospect re-stock.
The the addition of Povse and Whalen helps the upper-level pitching depth. It leaves only the massively untested Neidert behind Moore as MOR rotation options in the minors currently, but the Mariners can draft college arms to help offset that. They didn't do that much last year, but if the farm is thin you might as well make sure you don't have any holes on the big club that desperately need plugging I suppose.
I expect to keep O'Neill but stranger things have happened. His skillset is risky - I just expect the Mariners to take that risk. It's how they'll be able to afford to do some other things with their payroll. That payroll savings on a potentially plus hitter is immediate, while Gohara is still a couple of years away. Pitching is the most volatile thing and nothing says Gohara really turns into Lefty Zambrano.
DiPoto seems serious about finding that #3. I've been screaming at the Mariners for years for wasting Felix's prime. No sense waiting til 38 year old Robinson Cano is crushing our payroll to decide to do something. Hopefully we'll find that farm restock while we're winning a title.
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They're starting to look like a Premier League club. Thanks for the rundown Diderot. We could pose a counter-alignment and make it look more even, I think, but your broad point is well taken.
When you give up two super blue chip prospects to win now, you're going to look great on paper. And they do.
11
Smyly and Pomeranz works for me.
Twins in more than name?:
BHQ has Smyly at 4.09 xERA, 1.23 WHIP, 9.0K/2.6BB
Pomeranz at 3.94, 1.25, 9,0/3.4
Jerry...up to you to figure out how to get this done...
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...those are acceptable options to me at the Odorizzi cost line. Pick any of those mid-level guys and get it done.
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I'm not giving up anything pretty for one year of Clay Buchholz AND I'm getting some cash from Boston. He is made of glass.
Two years of Pomeranz is interesting (although I can't figure out why Boston builds an imposing staff and then weakens it right away). Whalen, Deej, Unsworth, Zych, MiLB bats.....What does it take?
Odorizzi and Quintana are more interesting.
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Personally, Quintana is good enough, cheap enough, young enough, that I WOULD deal Diaz for him: 17:$6M, 18:$8.35M, 19:$10.5M club option ($1M buyout), 20:$10.5M club option ($1M buyout)
We need to be realistic, a deal for Quintana would cost Diaz + O'Neil + extras, and the White Sox may still reject that offer as being too light.
Do it. Pay the price. Then sign Chapman or Jansen, with a dash of Uehara, to replace Diaz. Our window is NOW.
15
If the Red Sawx want to hedge a bit on Sandoval at 3B or at 1B with Moreland, maybe DJ and Karns could get Rodriguez and Sam Travis. The Sawx are now heavily LH in their rotation in a park that has never been that kind to LH pitchers. Swapping Karns and Rodriguez balances for them and gives the Ms a good LH with some experience that is still young. Put Travis in Tacoma until he hits his way to Seattle or 'til Valencia leaves, and then he and Vogelbach can share 1B until Cruz' time is up and then share 1B and DH. Travis has hit at every level, but his ACL repair will need to be tested.
Then sign Tyson Ross and/or trade for Joe Ross and go to the mattresses.