As the years go on, this game will gain weight and resonance. 

The 2010 Saints-Seahawks playoff game was comparable to the 1995 Mariners-Yankees series, complete with a historically-great play being the very play to seal an 'impossible' victory against a champion.

True, the 1995 Mariners had the backdrop of baseball being saved in Seattle.  Except for that, this game might have equalled the 1995 ALDS every inch.

Every once in a long while, sports transcend.  This is a game to bask in, all the way up to kickoff of the next game.

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The percentages below -- like baseball base-out run expectancies -- are theoretical and do not take into account quality of opponents or any other factor.

Folks lose track of the fact that --- > if there's a man on 2nd, 0 out, then the offense can expect 1.2 runs all things being equal.  If Ichiro's up, that changes!  If Garrett Olson is pitching, it also changes.  If Olson's pitching and Joe Mauer's up, it double-changes.

That matters, a lot.  Fans go, well, our chances were 24% at that point.  Usually not.  They were probably 20%, or 30%, or even 15% or 35%.

The advancednflstats.com win probabilities assume a bunch of things being equal:  opponents, crowd, etc... well, quality of opponents and crowd.

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20%:  Dr. D's pregame estimate

19%:  Saints go up 10-0 midway through 1Q (therefore my pregame % was wrong somewhere.  The Seahawks' pregame chances, in front of their home crowd, were not as bad as those of any random team that goes down 10-0 early.  The early 10-0 deficits include all the mismatches and blowouts.)

19%:  Saints go up 17-7 early in the 2Q (fascinating that this is the same as above.  It seems to balance 10-point deficits early, and later, by editing out blowouts)

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38%:  Seahawks come back to 17-14 (during the game, I said 35-40%.  The factor of the Saints' quality balanced the crowd, and the fact that the Seahawks, surprisingly, had got a footing in the game, so 38% is about right IMHO)

48%:  Seahawks tie it 17-17 with 5 minutes left in 2Q, Saints to take ball, but KO in 3Q

.........

74%:  Hass throws zig-out to Stokely for 24-17 lead, just before half (real probability maybe 45% now.  Give the Seahawks 7 points vs Brees next week, with a half left, and are you betting Seahawks?)

86%:  Seahawks go up 31-20 early in second half (actual odds maybe 55%, 60% now.  Brees threw a bad incompletion on the next drive and we remarked to the kids:  with THAT play, their coach is starting to worry)

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95%:  Seahawks penetrate to N.O 30 midway through 3Q (and likely 34-20 lead with field goal) (actual chances more like 75%.  Are you kidding me?  95% of teams with 11 points, and the ball, and 20 minutes left, win?)

96%:  Seahawks actually kick field goal late in 3Q (fascinating that odds didn't change from above)

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58%:  Brees brings Saints back to within 7 points early in 4th quarter (this was the actual highest WP for Seahawks in the game, prior to Lynch's "I Am A Man" run - so the intuitive cap of 58% was vindicated by the graph at this point)

76-83%:  Odds rise to this midway through 4Q, as Seahawks move ball out to around midfield (what strange WP increase; shows you how critical each 4Q drive becomes, as time remaining starts decreasing geometrically)

88%:  Saints punt with 4:30 left, down 30-34

94%:  Lynch TD with 3:38 left, 41-30 Seahawks

87%:  Brees passes Saints out to midfield, down 11 points, with 3:12 left (can this be higher than at 4:30 left?  How?  If they score they're down 4, but with less time left)

99%:  Carlson recovers onside kick

100%:  From 5:05 PM PST until the earth ends

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One of the greatest ever,

Dr D