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1.  Iwakuma is now IN THE ROTATION for the next 60-90 starts.  They're not paying him $6M to relieve.  Yeah baby!

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2.  I think we all agree that Erasmo has shown enough.  

I dunno, did SSI's forty articles on Hisashi Iwakuma have any influence over his being here?  Iwakuma's fine pitching had the real influence.  But did our campaign headquarters affect the conversation?

If so, same deal on Erasmo.  He is this close ::thumb and finger an inch apart:: from being an SSI Best Bet.  Not to put too fine a point on it, but Erasmo had four starts in June and five in September; despite that, the public conversation is now that Erasmo is a given for 2013.  SSI, we modestly claim, was able to demonstrate that Erasmo's (1) template and (2) execution are exceptionally safe bets.  

Needless to say, Erasmo's ability is The Truth here.  But it's verrrrry cool to see Iwakuma and Erasmo becoming ossified in their roles at the head of the rotation line.  IMHO that is what was best for the Mariners, and that's what they're doing.  

... obviously this isn't to imply that Jack Zduriencik is anything other than a grandmaster of baseball scouting or that his confidence in his own judgment is less than total.  But the conversation outside, around, and at low levels inside the club is subject to influence.  And if the information is accurate, what's wrong with that?

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Emotionally speaking, 2 Iwakuma and 3 Erasmo have (for me) now put Doug Fister in the rear view mirror

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3.  Numbers 1 and 2 mean that Jason Vargas has got to go.  ... could be that you can afford to wait until the All-Star break.  Maybe.  At the latest.  

There is an epidemic lack of faith in the Big Three, brought on apparently by the fact that they didn't go through the minors like Jered Weaver.  The sentiment of the moment is that we'll be lucky to get production out of one of them...

To which we can meekly offer GET A GRIP YOU FEEBLEMINDED MOOKS!  If you were talking about three Victor Sanchezes, teenagers who are in the Top 100, then sure.  You could say "only one or two will make it."  But if you didn't plan on using Danny Hultzen, you blinkin' well shouldn't have spent that #2 overall on him.

James Paxton is not some class A+ pitcher you hope will be good some day.  You are talking about two guys who, the moment they fire a few great games in spring training, the moment they look like they've solved it, are in there.  

Taijuan Walker is on much more of a Felix timeline than a Lucas Luetge timeline; he is liable to be ready to get his feet wet this September.  In July 2011, you might have said the ROI is 1.0 good pitchers out of those three.  Now it's more like 2.0 -- and that's midrange.  The UP scenario is Hudson, Zito and Mulder.

It's fine to say that you can't plan on all three of them becoming stars.  True enough.  But neither can you afford to make plans that freeze any of them out!  Whatever your "plans" on their stardom, in any case you DO have to plan on placing all three (3) of these young gentlemen into your major league rotation, my friend.  Supposing that in 1999, right before Hudson, Zito and Mulder got there, Billy Beane had locked up his rotation with several Jason Vargases?

*Even if you trade Paxton, you've still got 2.000 rotation slots you've got to keep cleared for Hultzen and Taijuan - and you've got the entire rest of the organization (Maurer, Capps, Sanchez etc etc) pressing up against the chainlink fence like a mob at a Who concert.

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Did you guys SEE Jason's body language on TV when they asked him about the fences?!  :- )  If there had been any doubt, that fence thingy casts the 101st Senate vote here, Mr. Speaker.

Hey.  He's young, rich, and famous.  He'll land on his feet, we're guessing.

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4.   It's remarkable that the Mariners walked down the aisle with Hisashi Iwakuma, considering all of the above.  Quite a compliment for HIM.  And their Big Three (Four) put them in the position of strength from which they negotiated the sweetheart deal.  Success breeds success.

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5.  The Mariners could still move on Dan Haren, theoretically.  What the Mariners could do for ONE year is not quite crushed by the imperative to eventually clear space for the Big Three.  And if Haren became a 5-6 WAR guy again, well, you figure something out.  But now we're off into la-la land.  Point is, if the Mariners can easily fit $15M for 2013, Dr. D would /cosign a Haren maneuver.  Fo sho.

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=== Bumper Sticker, Dept. ===

Iwakuma is in, and Erasmo is good, and Jason Vargas is therefore out.   That's me, anyway.

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