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Gordon sez,
.This is the year when Z either proves he can build a team out of all these nice pieces, or he gifts the next GM of the Mariners with the #1 farm club and tons of club controlled pieces to use for his own benefit.Montero, Ackley, Smoak, Seager, Saunders, Zunino, Franklin, Miller, The Big Three, the whole bullpen... it's a monster, but is it Godzilla or Frankenstein's? If it's Godzilla we should see big footprints soon... right?
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Zduriencik was on the Hot Stove a few weeks back, pointing out how young the M's MAJOR league roster was in 2012.
He said something about 13 of 25 players being first year, or something like that. If you totally ignore the minor league system -- which is probably #1 in baseball -- then as a totally separate issue the Mariners have
Zduriencik claimed that the Mariners were unique in baseball, the only team with so many core rookies. It's worth considering.
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=== MLB.com ===
M's with five more guys in MLB's top 61. As G says, the M's farm system may be mathematically #1 in baseball.
It's hard for me to think, offhand, of a minors system historically that I'd swap this one for. And I'm usually the guy weeping and gnashing my teeth over the M's minors. Of course there would be some. Back in the 1990's, the Braves had collections including like Chipper Jones, Javier Lopez, Tom Glavine, Steve Avery, Ryan Klesko, Jermaine Dye, yada yada.
But remember too we're not talking about what a collection of players turned out to be. In terms of the value of lottery tickets at the moment of ML promotion, these M's minor leaguers would rank up there pretty good.
All through the 1990's and early 00's, people were saying hey look at Travis Blackley and Clint Nageotte and I was going, you guys don't know what a real minors system looks like.
But you can't go the other way, either, and refuse to acknowledge greatness just to prove that you're objective.
The MLB.com remarks on a couple of them, with SSI kibitzing:
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=== Taijuan ===
MLB.com: Scouting Grades* (present/future): Fastball: 6/7 | Curveball: 5/6 | Changeup: 4/5 | Control: 4/6 | Overall: 5/7
The Mariners didn’t have a first-round pick in the 2010 Draft, but that’s not something that bothers them all that much thanks to the development of Walker, their first selection that June. The 2012 Futures Gamer was the youngest pitcher in the Southern League and was dominant in the first half, though he did falter in the second half of the 2012 season. He has the makings of an excellent three-pitch mix, with a plus fastball, complemented by a curve and changeup, both of which have the chance to be at least above-average. He still needs to tighten up his command, but his athleticism – he was a basketball standout in high school – should allow him to do improve on that and become the frontline starter people project him as.
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SSI: Don't even get us started on those grades. It's like scouts justify their professionalism by subtracting 20% off their scores. Why would a guy with these grades be the #2 pitcher in baseball?
Yeah. 7 fastball, 5 change, 6 curve ... yep, that's why he's the #2.
And I'm grouchy today, but "he needs to tighten up his command"?! Boilerplate text is a pet peeve of mine ... somebody want to point out which part of the above is not boilerplate?
"Makings of" a three-pitch mix? Does anybody not have that?
When you're trying this hard to pre-empt any possible disagreement, you wind up with material that is not useful.
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Anyway ... not that I care who ranks higher, Hultzen or K-Pax or Taijuan. They've all got the same golden ticket. It's sixth grade kids who play rotisserie by arguing about Verlander vs Felix for the first draft pick...
Taijuan has three years of injury to avoid, before he's where Hultzen and K-Pax are. When you rank Taijuan first, you're saying you are mesmerized by upside. James Rule: 90%, by which we mean 9 out of 10, teenage pitchers get hurt before they contribute much in the bigs.
Supposing for Taijuan it's only 50%. Where does that leave him relative to K-Pax?
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There is something else, though: we'll cheerfully concede that Taijuan isn't going to need to be 22 before he's contributing.
Here is some text that is NOT boilerplate. Ready?
Explain to me, very specifically, the difference between Felix Hernandez and Taijuan Walker. Specify the delta, and specify the size of the delta. Is Taijuan 92% of Felix? Or what?
And therefore why couldn't Taijuan pitch in Safeco this year? He's older than Felix was as a rookie.
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=== Deuce Hultzen #18 ===
MLB.com: Scouting Grades (present/future): Fastball: 5/6 | Slider: 5/6 | Changeup: 5/6 | Control: 4/6 | Overall: 5/6
Hultzen’s first full season of pro ball was a tale of two years. He was dominant in Double-A, then struggled once he moved up to Triple-A. The biggest surprise was a loss of control (he finished 2012 with a 5.4 BB/9 rate), something that was a plus for Hultzen coming out of the University of Virginia. Most see that as a blip on the radar and still feel his stuff and pitchability should have him ready for the big leagues very soon. Hultzen will run his fastball up to 93 mph and it has sink and tail to it. When he’s on, he can locate it to both sides of the plate. His changeup is his next-best pitch, an above-average offering, with an ability to pull the string on it. His slider is improved, with good deception and control of it, giving him the chance to have three above-average-or-better offerings. If his control issues are a thing of the past, he’ll help in Seattle sooner rather than later.
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SSI: very, VERY encouraging to see a scout refuse to bail because of a hiccup. :: GOLFCLAP :: Even better to hear that scout say his friends aren't bailing, either. The blogs certainly are (by losing their enthusiasm, by lowering Hultzen from about 18 to about 80, so to speak).
Dr. D saw Hultzen in Cheney. A big part of his BB problemo was --- > umps, and awed AAA hitters refusing to swing. It wasn't nearly as big a deal as the stats made it look. Hultzen would throw a pitch six inches off the plate, maybe, and the hitter would stand there with the bat on his shoulder. The next one would be on the black, but same thing, and ball two. Hultzen does NOT give in and groove pitches.
Hultzen did have release point issues and they did tinker with him, as the Mariners always do. But Hultzen has shown excellent command before, and he will get back to it.
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=== Zunino #23 ===
MLB.com: Scouting Grades (present/future): Hit: 4/5 | Power: 5/7 | Run: 2/2 | Arm: 4/5 | Field: 4/5 | Overall: 5/6
After a tremendous pro debut, the 2012 Golden Spikes Award Winner has most people asking when, not if, he’ll be in Seattle during the 2013 season. The son of longtime scout Greg Zunino, Mike reached Double-A during his first summer and shouldn’t need too much more time to be ready for the big leagues. Zunino has a lot of strength and bat speed, which will allow him to hit for power as a pro. While his swing can get long at times, he has an advanced approach at the plate, which should allow him to hit for average as well. Agile despite his size, he moves fairly well behind the plate, though he was a bit tired during his Arizona Fall League stint and his defense suffered as a result. He doesn’t have a cannon, but he has more than enough arm strength and is accurate. The Mariners took Zunino with the hope of him being their long-term solution behind the plate and it looks like he’ll answer that call sooner rather than later.
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SSI: the hype is reaching Apocalyptic proportions, and Dr. D is lovin' it. :- )
2013 would be all-but-unprecedented in 21st-century baseball. But the fact remains that Zunino is much more of a pro (not college) hitter than he got credit for, pre-draft. Re-rack the last five drafts, 2008-12, and Zunino would probably be the #2 draftee of the last five years, him or Strasburg. Behind Bryce Harper.
But it's hard to even rejoice in this windfall, because Zunino is lost in the tsunami that Jay-Z's team has brought to shore.
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I unsay the words about boilerplate text, as it pertains to the Zunino and Franklin reports here. Some useful and debatable observations to look at.
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=== Franklin #47 ===
MLB.com: Scouting Grades (present/future): Hit: 4/6 | Power: 4/5 | Run: 5/5 | Arm: 5/5 | Field: 5/6 | Overall: 5/6
Most have believed Franklin would make it to the big leagues, especially after his 20-20 first full season in 2010. The following year was interrupted by injury and illness, but he put that behind him with a bounce-back 2012 season that saw him reach Triple-A.
A switch-hitter who has been much better from the left side thus far in his career, Franklin has a good idea at the plate with a good approach. The ball can jump off his bat thanks to his bat speed and he has more power than one would expect. His solid speed plays up because he has very good instincts on the basepaths. He’s played both shortstop and second base in his career and while he’s solid at short, some think he’d be even better as a full-time second baseman. Regardless of where it is, Franklin plays with a confidence that is important to see in a future everyday big leaguer.
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SSI: So he gets the credit for makeup, that Gordon first apprised us of on draft day.
Remember when Dr. Naka singled out Mike Morse as a favorite project, because of Morse's "strength of mind"?
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=== K-Pax #61 ===
MLB.com: Scouting Grades (present/future): Fastball: 6/6 | Curveball: 5/6 | Changeup: 3/5 | Control: 3/5 | Overall: 5/6
It’s hard to argue with what Paxton has been able to do thus far in his Minor League career since taking until March 2011 to sign. The big lefty has struck out 10.6 per nine innings over his two seasons in pro ball. The only question has been whether his command and his changeup would improve enough to be a starter for the long-term. He has a fastball that’s easily plus, one he can get up into the upper-90s and sits in the 93-94 mph range with regularity. He adds and subtracts from his power curve which has plenty of break to it. His changeup has improved, giving more hope to his ability to stay in a starting rotation. His long arm path, along with some other issues with his delivery, has led to command problems (4.3 BB/9) and that remains the key to his future. At the very least, that fastball-curve combination are more than enough to be an outstanding short reliever.
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SSI: Paxton has shown the control and command in the past. There's a whale of a difference between "needs to figure out how to throw a strike" versus "needs to get back to what he was doing before."
He's got the great delivery, presently marred by a poor foot plant and deceleration. I don't know how much the 2012 knee injury CREATED the poor foot plant ... in the Arizona league All-Star game, Paxton had SOME foot plants with a flexible front knee, so that's very encouraging.
We've mentioned 1,000 times, the Gio Gonzalezes and Clayton Kershaws and CC Sabathias do get to throw 4-5 walks a game as rookies. In other orgs.
Dr. D's holdup would NOT be walk rate. It WOULD be deceleration, however. It's my team, Paxton needs to be finishing his pitches smoothly and comfortably, and then he's in there. Period. James Paxton is my #5 starter, for two years on, the moment he shows a major league decel.
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You're kidding, right? Braun was a beast in AAA. Smoak never was, but was rushed to the bigs by Tex-Sea, and has been paying for it ever since. Check his numbers again. He might still benefit from a year in Tacoma, while we have Morales, Morse, and Ibanez rented for 2013.
But I am more inclined to believe that Smoak shows value this year in the MLB or is gone. Showing anything in AAA by itself only seems to raise his trade value slightly. To do anything for his career here it will have to be in MLB.
If you really reracked the draft with 2009 included, Trout and Harper would be 1-2, Zunino, Strasburg, and Bundy come after.
Compare him to some other name if you want.
... Chris Sale would go ahead of a lot of guys. :- ) And Buster Posey would go ahead of everybody. Brett Lawrie was in there.
Basic idea wasn't, "using 2012 info who would you have drafted in 2008?" ... basic idea was, "if you got a look at 6 months' of pro performance for each draftee, where would they go if put into a 5-year pool." Zunino would go REAL high, but whether it would be 2, 3, or 4 isn't my overall issue ...
But that would be another discussion, ya. If you re-did the draft with all current information, they'd pick a lot of things differently ...