..I don't think acquiring Washburn would push out Snell, Fister etc. It might for a short time but the Mariners have an entire rotation behind Felix that is unlikely in the extreme to be able to pitch consistently for 140 innings, let alone 200 innings.
RRS hasn't thrown more than 120 innings in any one season in quite some time.
Ian Snell may or may not be effective enough to warrant that kind of playing time even though his arm can clearly take it.
Brandon Morrow SHOULDN'T pitch more than 100 innings next year given that he has never done that since college and it's a terrible idea to double somoene's workload in one season.
Silva may or may not ever be effective enough to return ot the rotation.
Vargas, Olson and Jakubauskas have all essentially proved they can't handle that job at the big league level.
Doug Fister...he probably has enough arm to go 200, but banking on him to do so is goofy given his inconsistent results to date.
There's a REASON that my planned rosters in recent comprehensive off-season planning posts have all included not one but TWO rotation spots that are shared by two starters. In one such plan, I bought Harden or Sheets and Bedard for my SP2 and handed SP3 to Morrow AND RR-S, SP4 to Ian Snell and SP5 to Doug Fister. Why can't you sign a Jarrod Washburn, have him take SP3, and make Morrow beat out RRS for SP5?
Q. What do you think of Washburn's 4.10 career ERA vs. his 4.60 career FIP?
A. Washburn's K, BB, HR and flyballs mark him as an average-to-below-average innings eater. But he's coming up on 2,000 innings now of surprisingly good run prevention.
He's one of those guys who's better than his peripherals. That's not saying a whole lot. Washburn is average-solid.
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Q. And would he return to the synergy in Seattle, or would the luck run out as it did in Detroit?
A. In Seattle he was one of the 10 best pitchers in the league last year. The Yankees and others were bidding large on Washburn not because they don't read The Hardball Times. Washburn was a hot commodity because he was throwing very well.
The defense behind Washburn created a positive momentum for him as an athlete, and Adair's synergy with him kept Washburn at his best.
A pitcher like Jarrod Washburn, the difference between 7 IP, 2 ER and 5 IP, 5 ER is a couple of taters -- and that difference, itself, is just a few inches on a couple of pitches.
I don't doubt that Safeco 2010, the M's could score a cheap 110 ERA+ out of Washburn, maybe more.
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Q. Could somebody else benefit from Safeco just as easily?
A. No. I mean, they could and they do. But Jason Vargas is going to hit the windshield in a green shower of icky. It's not like you can just ask any Vargas or French or Silva to go out there and throw fly balls to the track guys.
Most sabermetricians, not being good at Rotisserie, underestimate the value of a bankable, average player. And most sabermetricians underestimate the high value of a bankable, average player at a breakeven salary.
GM's do not underestimate either of those things. That's why the constant howls from saberdudes when GM's pay market rate for mediocre veterans, like, say, Raul Ibanez. :- )
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Q. Would it be worth it, to push out Doogie who you love, maybe Snell, etc?
A. If you think Washburn is a bankable 180 innings of solid pitching, well, never overestimate the potential of the guys who haven't done it yet.
Snell, Morrow, Doogie, those guys haven't done it yet. Even Rowland-Smith hasn't done it yet, "It" being 30 starts and 14 wins.
So there's an argument to be made, slotting Washburn in there at #2-3 and then letting guys duke it out behind them. Jack Zduriencik just loves traffic jams with people competing for spots.
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Q. Would you rather sign Washburn than roll the dice with Bedard, Harden, Webb, Sheets, or Tom Seaver?
A. Would I?
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Q. Would you.
A. What's the % chance that a Bedard or Rich Harden or Ben Sheets will be healthy? Is it more like 30% or more like 65%?
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Q. I dunno.
A. Then neither can we answer that question. You'd have to bring on the specialists, the medical specialists, that is.
But that's one of the great themes of the 2010 winter. If Washburn is willing to do a Bobby Abreu $5M deal, do you want that, or your shot at Bedard / Harden?
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Q. What's the bottom line? Are you recommending him?
A. Just saying that maximizing a roster requires agility, and that Washburn might be a more serious option than we assume.
Cheers,
Dr D
Comments
are usually what you wind up using in a year, whether you want to or not.
So, I suppose, you could go ahead and sign Washburn to an Abreu deal and just kinda pencil in 6-7 guys... You have a revamped rotation & payroll including Washburn there Matty?
I'd still sign Bedard to an incentive laden deal as well...but the rotation would look something like:
King Felix (12 mil)
Bedard (3 mil base) / RR-S (0.8 mil)
Washburn (6 mil base with incentives)
Snell (3 mil)
Morrow (min) / Fister (min)
So...would you rather spend 5-6 mil on the 10% chance that Ben Sheets comes back to being an ace after a year out of the game (or on 12-15 starts of Rich Harden before his next arm problem), or would you rather get 25 defense assisted starts from Jarrod Washburn that have a very high stoploss and a moderate probability of at least a 100 ERA+?
as to your last Q ... what would *you* pick...
........
Now just supposing that all those guys are throwing well in May. Who are the odd men out?
What I really like about Washburn stating this, is that Z now can be even more aggressive on the trade market - IF HE WANTS TO.
Pair up the signings of Washburn and hopefully Chapman, and now you do not NEED RRS or Morrow, so they can be a part of a nice deal if the right players in return are offered.
Tacoma Rain
But in some ways I'm just starting to see what he means by that.
The '90's M's, with Jr - Edgar - ARod - Unit - Buhner, had one of the tallest & skinniest talent pyramids it's possible to have.
I'm not sure that Seattle fans have ever SEEN a low, squat pyramid base.
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For my own part, I vaguely remember the Big Red Machine and the Hal McRaes, George Fosters, Terry Crowleys, Dan Driessens etc coming up and being royally blocked from playing time... but then in 1978 or so I switched allegiances and ever since, there's never been enough talent to fill 25 spots...
I wonder what Washburn's career ERA would have been in Chicago or Texas? I bet it would be 5 ish.
Washburn has pitched under favorable circumstances since exiting his prime. That still means hes a good fit for Safeco, but so is any flyball lefty.
I'd stay away. If we whiff on the high upside Harden or Sheets types, I'd probably still prefer a guy like Pavano over Washburn. His stock is lower and hes likely the better pitcher.
A 1-year 5-ish deal for Wash? Has the entire planet gone bonkers, or just me? OF COURSE you take that deal. Has everyone ALREADY forgotten $8 million for Jeff Weaver?!? Or Silva?!? Are we seriously going to quibble about $5 million for Washburn, and pretend EITHER the price is too high -- OR, that it's realistic to expect to be able to land a CAREER 109 ERA+ pitcher for less?!?
If you're talking 3/30, then yeah, I'd be first betting on the pass line. But a dirt cheap 1-year?!?
I'm thinking everyone is VASTLY misprojecting the economic situation for 2010. Last off-season was unique in that at the point where the signings began were smack in the middle of a financial crisis that looked like it could EASILY implode into the 2nd Great Depression. THAT was the economic backdrop for last year's off-season. This year, while the economy may still be in bad shape -- it looks a WHOLE LOT more like the Reagan Recession, (not placing blame - just chronology for any political sensitives out there).
Does the fact that Anaheim doubled the years AND the dollars for Abreu not at least hint at what is to come this off-season? He DID get a year older, y'know?
By all means, if you find a solid average player WILLING to sign 1-year deals for bargain basement prices, YOU DO IT!
But I seriously doubt that any such sort of deal is very likely. While salaries may not bounce back all the way to 2008 levels, I see no reason to believe the salary suppression of last year is going to remain. Even if he only managed a 4.20 ERA in 2010, that would still be an incredible bargain. Ask the Yanks how happy they were with Pettitte's 4.16 for $5 mil this year. And then tell me, if Pettitte signs another 1-year for 2010 ... anyone here think it's just going to be for $5 million again?
We don't need long term solutions in the rotation because we have a ridiculous glut of pitching in AA that has enormous potential. We need 1-2 year players. In which case, I think I'd rather have one year of Jarrod Washburn's high stoploss than one year of a pitcher with a higher ceiling and a low probability of health.
So say I've got 7 starts in May:
King Felix
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Jarrod Wasburn
Ian Snell
Brandon Morrow
Doug Fister
Erik Bedard
And by some amazing swing of fortune, Bedard is actually healthy and pitching well by May (very unlikely to happen...he's signed in my plan with the expectation that he doesn't pitch until at least July).
Then My top five performers get into the rotation and the other two are in my bullpen. Chances are, my rotation would go:
King Felix
Erik Bedard
Ryan Rowland-Smith
Ian Snell
Jarrod Washburn
Fister is the kind of guy that can pitch in any role and could be very useful out of the bullpen. Brandon Morrow has had significant success in the bullpen and still has minor league options left if you'd rather he continue building up arm strength.
1) No serious economist (and baseball bean counters are serious economists) would ever have thought the current economic situation had any potential to develop into the 2nd great depression. Only people who were suckered by the media hype of the stock market crash would ignore the otherwise strong indicators of economic stability that surrounded the implosion of the home equity business and the bank bailouts.
2) The economy is no different today than it was last year in baseball terms.
3) Jarrod Washburn is absolutely DESPERATE to go back to Seattle and work with Adair and our outfield defense again. He's said in several occasions that he feels he made his money and now wants to win. In other words...he's not going to be happy with a 3 year contract for some team that isn't going to make it possible for him to pitch "well". It's not unreasonable to wonder how low he'll go to get back to the Mariners. If he signs a higher-value contract and pitches elsewhere...that's his decision. None of us discussing the Washburn idea are PLANNING on his being worth 5 mil on the general market or assuming that what he'll take to come here...but it's not impossible, and it's certainly worth discussing.
I was just admiring the 1996 roster (that team came up as one of only 14 teams in history to have 6 80+ RBI men while discussing the fact that the 2009 Yankees had 7).
The '96 Mariners are hilarious. The ace of their rotation that year was Sterling Hitchcock...LOL
They had 8 guys with at least 50 innings pitched and an ERA higher than 5.
But they also had a line-up of Cora/A-Rod/Griffey/Edgar/Buhner/Sorrento/Wilson/Bragg-Whitten-Amaral/random third baseman...what I wouldn't give to see that line-up combined with even the 2009 Mariners' average pitching staff...let alone the 2009 Yankees' pitching staff or someone even better.
A fave James quote of mine: "The 1950's Brewers parlayed Hank Aaron, Eddie Matthews and Warren Spahn into one championship and a long series of excuses. The (1990's) Mariners appear to have outdone them."
With the two exceptions of Gillick and Zduriencik, and perhaps Bavasi (who didn't have the lead), Seattle execs were always satisfied to provide marketable baseball "product." Championships were never a priority.
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I'm certain that I'll live the rest of my life and never see another set of (nearly-) homegrown players, like Junior-ARod-Edgar-Bone-Unit, ever come up for a team that I root for.
Simply amazing how little the 1990's Mariners accomplished. One great 5-game first-round playoff win and that was pretty much it. You could have accomplished that much in a decade, with none of those HOF'ers.
I'd agree with that take.
If he want multiple years, hes not even worth considering. At 1/$5mil hes mildly interesting, but I would probably still pass. I'd prefer going after high upside, high risk types on short deals than Washburn.