Debate at Mariner Central as to whether Jason Vargas' success, in 11 starts, implies that now we're okay to put Ryan Rowland-Smith's minus fastball in there.   Does Vargas' high-wire act lead to any generalized conclusions as to whether journeyman LHP's can succeed without good stuff?

Know that nobody asked me, but if anybody did ... :- )  No.  Vargas' highwire act doesn't mean that we now want to start betting on LHP's with minus fastballs.

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1) Fangraphs has Vargas' fastball at 87.9 mph, so averaging 88 up from the 86-87 he debuted at, and when he wants to challenge he gets to 89-90...

My first glance at Vargas was that the fastball was slow, easy to pick up out of the release area, and would lead to gopheritis. Since then, Vargas' fastball has been less-crispy-deep-fried than it originally looked, but he has still given up 10 homers in 63 innings.  1.41 homers per game is terminal gopheritis; NOBODY sustains success at 1.4 homers per game.

Think about it.  If you knew the other guys were going to hit a couple of homers tomorrow night, would you go to the game?

Could Vargas get the homers down?  Maybe, and he'll have to.

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2) How do you run a 3.82 ERA with 1.4 homers?  You strand a lucky 80% of your runners, as compared to your own historical ML average of 69%.

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3) Vargas has been defending himself with a nearly Moyer-class straight change lately -- not thrown often enough!! -- and a Rembrandt-like touch for keeping the fastball out of the middle of the plate.

Vargas' mediocre minor-league record leads me to believe that he CANNOT continue to paint like he has been.  But if he can, awesome.

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4) Despite all of the above, Vargas is defying gravity in my humble opinion... The prediction here is that the gopheritis will get worse, not better, the second time through the league... and as the strand rate returns to normal, the ERA will sail over 5.00 ...

I'll give even money that Jason' Vargas' ERA is > 5.00 from here to the end of the year, and that's despite the great outfield D and the huge home park...

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5)  Resisting me so far?  Ask yourself if you'll bet a $8M x 3 year contract on this amigo after you see him through the summer?   Because $8M is a great deal if he's really going to be AL-average...

Thought not :- )

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6) Vargas is a gutsy little flounder swimming through the waters finding his Nemo-like ten wins, we'll give 'im that.  But his chance to be an average SP in the AL rests on two things IMHO:  a) his ability to continue to paint, and b) an increasing reliance on his impressive change-speed game.

Neither are likely, it says here.  But we'll see.

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7) Even assuming that Vargas becomes the next smoke-and-mirrors LHP in the American League, and that he Moyer are the exceptions to the "minus-fastball-lefty" rule, that doesn't mean that we want to bet on every soft-tossing lefty to become the next Moyer...

General principle is to bet against soft-tossing lefties until they prove you wrong... you'll win 9 out of 10, if not 29 out of 30... Ryan Rowland-Smith is definitely included in this, unless and until he has the 92 fastball and crackling curve back...

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=== Avast Ye Lubbers, Hail Capt Jack or Walk the "Sunk Cost" Plank ===

Jason Vargas has provided a huge boost in replacing Carlos Silva.  Those "poached" #5 SP wins wouldn't be possible if the front office weren't willing to powerflush deadwood $12M pitchers.

That's how Oakland-style Stars & Scrubs works:  the #8-9 slots in your lineup, and #4-5 slots in your rotation, go to fungible org players  --THAT YOU BELIEVE IN-- .  

You don't just throw spaghetti against the wall with Stars & Scrubs.  You still pick the AAA hotshots and AAA journeymen that your best judgment tells you might surprise.

Vargas is the definition of this.  Capt Jack scored a nice throwin, in the Putz trade, and Vargas has shown his guts and guile for a dozen starts and helped the 2009 M's contend into the All-Star Break.  That's the proper role for guys like him.

It takes a lot of finesse to pick the right Scrubs!  And it takes finesse to get them in, and out, of the lineup before they do real damage.  This has been one of the differences between Beane and the Seattle GM's.

Capt Jack is prepared to swap ponies in this #5SP Pony Express, and he is prepared to somebody else carry the mail if/when Vargas gets booked and sent back to the minors. 

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And that is in fact what the M's are doing:  Vargas is going to be one of several SP's they choose from after the break.   The fact that they will yank* a starting pitcher with a 3.81 ERA -- BEFORE he starts to slide into the 5.50 ERA, much less AFTER he's gotten bombed eight times in a row -- shows a real agility of thought.

This agility is the biggest difference in the 2009 M's roster management.  Zduriencik is from Milwaukee, not New York.  He knows what to do with players who don't perform.  And he doesn't need to toast marshmallows over the bonfires of their failures for months before he reaches a decision.  He's ready to switch BEFORE the match touches gasoline.

What Zduriencik "gets" is this:  he gets the Stars-and-Scrubs paradigm, its agility, and its decisiveness.   If a player is playing good, Z leaves him on the roster.  If a player starts to look suspect, Z is ready to swap him out.  THAT is what is different around here.

Seattle's General Manager now has a scout's eye for a ballplayer and the willingness to use trial-and-error.  In other cities that's not weird.  We've been used to decision by committee, so a guy who slaps the cards quickly down onto the table seems inspired.

Vargas has an amazing 3.82 ERA.  He did good.  He's gotta KEEP doing good, or some other guy will.

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I don't wave the pom-pom's and gush all over Zduriencik every time he picks up an Oakland meatball to fill in for two weeks, but the hair-fine touch for a fungible #4-5 SP is worthy of real admiration.

Jack Zduriencik doesn't powerflush Carlos Silva, the Mariners aren't in this race. 

Cheers,

Dr D