Seattle Sports Insider

Swisher in Safeco

Retreating to a rearward foxhole.

Posted by

12/15/12

Fascinating peek behind the curtain from, not James in this case, but the Red Sox' VP:

The phils new SP, John Lannan , is 2-5with a 6- plus era in Citizens bank park. How much stock do u give such things generally and how much does it mean for pitching in cbp for lannan facing the nats braves mets etc?

Asked by: PeteDecour

Answered: 12/16/2012

It doesn't mean anything, except it expands my respect for the Phillies a little. If a player plays well against YOU, you'd be surprised how much that drives demand for him within an organization. It's unusual that a team would sign a player who has pitched poorly against them.

Dr. D had to sit and digest that one for a minute. I mean, it's definitely true; you think back over the past 20 years and it's hard to think of even a single exception.

And it's true, it seems, to a HUGE degree.

What is hard to figure, is how exactly this works within an organization. Obviously you don't have six field scouts telling Jack Zduriencik, hey, Josh Hamilton hasn't hit very well in Safeco so far. That isn't how it works.

But a picture's worth 1,000 words, and if a player has looked lousy when a team's talent judges are watching, it's easy to focus in on his problems. You can imagine that if (say) Josh Hamilton has fished at curve balls three feet outside, against the Mariners, and they have physically seen that a lot, that the Mariners would be a bit shrill about his strikeout rate. It's human nature.

..............

If I had to name 5 guys who absolutely loved hitting in Safeco Field, there would be Vlad Guerrero, three other guys, and Nick Swisher. He has played 45 games in this park, 226 plate appearances, which if prorated to 162 games would be:

AVG	OBP	SLG	HR	RBI	R	BB	K
.287	.375	.538	41	106	126 (!)	91	114

He's played a whale of a lot of games here, and that's a line you'd expect from ... well, from Josh Hamilton.

Interesting that the Mariners haven't been unduly locked in on Swisher, considering his rampages here.

...............

Hamilton's gone now, and the question is, how much could Swisher help the M's in right field? ::shrug:: a lot. He has been averaging 4 WAR per season, and we expect him to do it for another 1-3 years. Hey Terry, Moe, does Swisher remind you a little bit of a left-handed Dewey Evans?

Dwight Evans wasn't a franchise player, but he could play for my team any time.

Comments

Hadn't thought about it

But that's a very clever comparison.
Used to love Evans. But then I love guys who walk 100 pts AND get you 22-30 taters.
And Evans hit almost until he could collect Medicare.
I wonder if that Evans template, .270-ish-.370-ish-.470-ish is relatively slump-proof and generally long-lived, in terms of production. When you control the strike zone like that you can make up for a lot of things, including aging.
Just looked up Evans, his age 32-37 years were terrific.
Had not thought about it., but this is a good call Doc.
I knew I liked Swisher a bunch.
Ante up, Z.
moe

Me, neither

Hadn't crossed my mind at all, but, yes, with the bat in their hands very similar. Evans was a much better outfielder, one of the best of his era. He was good at almost everything, but his greatness was in his ability to do it for such a long time. I doubt he was ever a serious MVP candidate but would certainly be on all-decade teams. Don't know if his wife was as gorgeous, however.
What's great about the comp is that it makes me think more highly of Swisher, which is what comps are for - making you rethink a guy based on them. Thanks, Doc. Now me wants him, my new precious.

Cleveland going hard after him...

MLBTR says they are trying to get him for 4 / 50, or there about. VERY reasonable. Why not just waltz in plunk down 4 / 60 or even 4 / 65 and call it a day? Who cares if you overpay by a little bit. Would we rather overpay a little or have mud flung in our face and wind up with no one? Or ::gasp:: (even worse in my mind) Bourn for 4 / 45???
And really after thinking it over Swisher is probably worth MORE than 15 or 16.5 million dollars a year! Lets look at Hamilton's and Swisher's 3 year averages in wRC+, OPS+ and WAR (and really this gives a bit of an undue advantage to Josh since he has had the one BIG year while Nick is super consistent):

3 yr AVG
Swisher
Hamilton
Nick as a % of Josh
wRC+
129
147
87.75
WAR
3.93
5.63
69.8
OPS+
125
146.3
85.44

overall average percentage
81
Well, Hamilton just got 25 million a year... 80 percent of 25 mil is 20 million, so 15 would be underpaying him by 25%!
Come on Z, GET. IT. DONE!

If

If we were hanging around the Hamilton sweepstakes up to $20M/season, we should be all over Swisher at $14-$15M per.
4X$15 will get it done.
I've said all along that Swisheer was the best buy.

a little more reasonable ...

Not that I love 30+ FAs any more today than yesterday ... but it's a lot easier to view Swisher as "another piece" rather than "savior", (which is how Hamilton would've been viewed).
I still think after the park transition, (so how did Ichiro and Swisher compare in production while playing together in Yankee Stadium?), and with age decline I think you're much more likely to be paying $15 million a year for a .730 hitter than an .830 hitter. But, the corner OFs are highly questionable.
I could see Swisher being a "Werth" like pick-up ... big money for a guy who ends up producing only 1 WAR per year, but not actually a black hole detriment to the offense like Figgins or Sexson at the end.
Personally, I'd rather go get more cheap spaghetti like Wells ... but I know I'm in a minority in that regard. But, this wouldn't be a deal that would cripple the team for another decade.

Wells

Sandy, I'm hoping Wells is part of the plan. At least as part of a platoon.
But Wells can play. (Both Guti and Wells kill lefties, not so righties. Guti, more so.)
If we aren't in the Swisher hunt...and if we are in the Bourne hunt, then Bourne is best acquired as a platoon player...and we take advantage of his great split, too. Bourne/Guti or Bourne/Wells is a heck of an outfielder.
Even w/o a FA pickup, we should platoon one of those guys with Thames, who hits righties fairly well. I think you could expect a 110 OPS, total, out of such a platoon.
And I've gone weeks without mentioning Carp. I'll mention him now, because the possibility still exists that he may still be a Mariner. I have long assumed that he would be a trade chit of some kind. Now, I don't know. I've spent so long not thinking about him, I'm not sure if I can anymore. But he's probably gone in some deal, as an add in.
I expect, BTW, Swisher to end up in Cleveland.....alas.
moe
EDIT: Just read this at MLBtraderumors (posted today, 90 minutes ago): Had not thought about the lost pick....
•Nick Swisher visited Cleveland earlier today to meet with Indians executives and is headed to visit another city, but CBS Sports' Jon Heyman (via Twitter) reports that "the Swisher tour" will not stop in Seattle. The M's would have to give up their first-round pick in next year's draft (No. 12 overall) as compensation for signing a free agent who has declined a qualifying offer from their former team. Heyman tweets that the Mariners aren't willing to sacrifice their pick for Swisher but could do it for "a bigger free agent than Swisher." Michael Bourn seems to be the only free agent left on the market who fits that criteria.
•If the Mariners had $25MM earmarked for Josh Hamilton, Larry Stone of the Seattle Times points out that the club could use that money to sign Bourn and still have enough payroll left to acquire Michael Morse from the Nationals.

Not to quibble, but...

... the offer from the M's to Hamilton was 4 x $100M, which is $25M per year, not $20M.

unlikely to happen

Z doesn't want to give up a top draft pick to sign Swisher, unfortunately.

Carp will be a Mariner

In my sometimes worthless opinion...based on the Mariner's actions / inactions so far this off season, Z must have confidence in Carp and Guti... if even put in platoon roles.
The Mariner's are not going after two new bats... only ONE. That is all Z has said, and what the so-called experts / Heyman have been saying. The M's are looking for a power bat... Napoli, Hamilton... and clearly Swisher and Bourn do not fit this role.