.............

In 2011, Jason Vargas was the most inconsistent starting pitcher in the American League ... or in the National League, for that matter.  Going back to 2007, for that matter.  According to Bill James, if that matters.  And since we're slam-dancing to his power riff, here's my bi-weekly shill for the piddling $3 per month it costs you to grok baseball's sixty-something Socrates.

Other starters who were wildly up and down:  Trevor Cahill, Ricky Nolasco, James Shields, Colby Lewis and Nick Blackburn.

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=== The Most Dependable ===

Doug Fister was the #4 most reliable starter in either league, racking up an amazing 90% "decent start" record that was better than Cliff Lee's, Jered Weaver's or Felix'.  Ron Shandler backs up James on this one, scoring Fister a paltry 3% "disaster start" ratio in 2011.  Remember, Fister was traded because "he wasn't one of our top five going forward," quoth Eric Wedge, so we know we're getting Paxton and Hultzen here real quick.

Mat Latos was the very most consistent MLB pitcher in 2011.

There is a takeaway here.  Over the past five years, 2007-11, the most consistent starting pitcher* in the major leagues has been Jason Hammel of Colorado.  

That name perked up my ear, as it were, because in the Hector Noesi template SSI had put Hammel, as well as Matt Garza, Felix Hernandez,* and to lesser extents Latos and Fister.  Here we are with Hammel, Latos, and Fister tossing out quality starts like Rick the Peanut Man tossing bags of peanuts behind his back.

The template is:

• 92+ mph RH
• Four legitimate pitches
• But no gasp-inducing putaway pitch (except Felix)

The above toolbox will not win Jason Hammel a Cy Young Award, but it will earn him one competent start after another.  It is very repeatable -- on a game-in, game-out basis, these guys can go out and pound the zone with four pitches, and it is not easy to splash them because it is not easy to know when the ball's going to arrive at home plate.

Hector Noesi, if his little high-school slider does not die of exposure, stands to reap the same benefits.  He is an exceptionally sound bet to post a 100+ ERA.

Jeff Suppan was #4 in all of baseball for Con Sis 10C, interesting too because (1) he also is a 4-pitch guy, although at 87 mph, and (2) the Mariners wanted him, as they wanted Noesi, as they wanted Millwood, as they wanted a bunch of deadwood MLB(TM) stoplosses this winter.

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=== Scampering Back to the Vargas Point ===

Some pitchers are inconsistent because they have trouble repeating their games from one start to the next.  It's going to be quite a bit of fun watching Hong-Chih Kuo try to execute his game twice in a row...

But Jason Vargas didn't have trouble executing from one night to the next.  He had trouble from one month to the next:

As you might remember, Mr. Vargas threw three separate complete-game shutouts (by which we mean 9 IP, 0 R) in May and June, sandwiched right around seven other games in which he pitched into the 8th and 9th.  

Then he imploded for a while in July and August, going so far as to experiment with a Jim Kaat non-windup and finally settling on the Erikkk Bedard rob-o-tronic shoulder turn.   He finished the year with a 10-strikeout, 0-walk performance against Oakland.

Maybe Vargas is wayyyyy up and wayyyyy down because he's showing flashes of a breakthrough, which he plans to consolidate in 2012.  That would be okay with Dr. D.

Cheers,

Jeff

*Using SD of James Game Scores, Matty.