Q. What happened out there?
A. In no order of importance, since all of these things converged, to form an unseemly puddle of raspberry jelly on the pitcher's mound:
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1. The Yankees came in 20-6 since the break. They are mulching everybody.
This was pro's against Joes on Thursday, with a $180M pitcher ahead 5-0 by the third inning.
Against a $200M+ roster that is as red-hot as this, you need a Felix Hernandez or Erik Bedard out there if you don't want to feel like a bikini'ed coed lost in Jason territory.
A merely-decent pitcher is going to need a double-reinforced cup and softball helmet against these guys right now. Snell isn't the only guy they're going to blast.
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2. The Yankees had a murderer's row of power lefties against Snell, who has a (legitmately) unbalanced game, tough vs RH and weak vs LH.
They ranged Jeter - Damon - TEX - Matsui - Swisher all in a row. (Jeter is an inside-out guy tough on RHP.)
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3. The ump forced Snell to come wayyyyyyy up into the zone, as pointed out by Malcontent in the comments.
Damon has a good eye and is tough to hit corners against, even with a pitcher's ump. Mark Teixeira is a nightmare in terms of trying to get him to fish. Matsui and Swisher, of course, also have superb strike zone control.
You get those guys with an ump who FORCES you to throw waist-high, and you can literally expect an ERA of 6.00, 7.00 in those games.
Seriously. This ump ... that zone ... these LH hitters ... a RH pitcher ... you're going to get a 6.50 ERA.
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4. Snell wasn't selling his offspeed.
His arm action, or whatever, was poor. I could toss a kernel of popcorn at you from across the room, and you'd flinch more than Matsui did on that first-pitch slider in the third inning.
I didn't see a Yankee "half-position" a change all night long. They read his offspeed stuff very easily.
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5. Snell's three offspeed pitches were all 83 mph.
It's getting so I don't know why some of these pitchers call one pitch a slider and another one a change. Same velo, same shape, why do you call it a different pitch? I don't care how you hold it.
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Q. Does that mean he'll be okay next game?
A. If he throws a 91-95 fastball with good late life, and one 83 offspeed pitch that he telegraphs, he's going to scuffle for a 4.50, 4.75 ERA against the league. And get blasted by good hitters.
He's got work to do on that offspeed stuff. More separation, better sales technique.
He's done it before! For entire seasons at a time.
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Q. Any good news? As far as Thursday night?
A. The FB had hair on it. The Yanks sat FB, got FB and fouled them back over the dugout.
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He didn't have command, but he did have control, both of his FB and his offspeed. Nice progress from last start in terms of control.
For example, the changeup that Damon blistered in the 3rd before Matsui's homer .... outside black, right where it's supposed to be.
Snell was getting a lot of the plate, yeah, but you have to consider the ump.
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Q. What's he need from here?
A. To get a third velocity and/or to get the snap back on his slider .... to sell his offspeed better .... and to get some lineups that aren't the Yankees.
I like Snell as much or as little as I ever did, but he IS farther away from his 06-07 form than we'd hoped. Ian has got some work to do. We're sure that he and Adair will get 'r dunn.
Cheers,
Dr D
This was the one deal by Z that I've been a little luke warm on..
Snell has massive upside, but you have to consider that even in '06-07 he was probably more of a league-average pitcher in the AL, than a TOR type (SPs usually lose/gain 0.90 FIP/ERA points in the swap).
Hes going to have to breakout beyond his '06/'07 seasons to be a TOR type in the AL.
I thought Snell would be a little more polished coming from the Pirates, considering his experience and minor league tear. But now he seems like more of an offseason project, and maybe in 2010 he's a solid #2-#3. His low end is BOR, his top end is #1 SP.
So I'm taking the long view on him. The Gil Meche comps seem pretty solid in terms of makeup, stuff, and the like. I'm glad we've got him, but for now I'll keep my expectations low.
The young Gil Meche looks more and more like the template here.
And Meche's upside wasn't to win a Cy Young. It was to provide very solid #2-3 pitching at the peak of his career.
Having seen Snell a bit, I think he's a long, long way from providing anything like Erik Bedard domination.
Hm. What do you visualize that looking like, GL? Setting guys up with a painted fastball and putting them away with the 2008 slider, or ... ?
It's pretty easy to imagine 1) Snell taking the Solomon Torres path from here, 2) Wilson providing a year or two of mediocre SS, and 3) Jeff Clement hitting 30+ homers a year in the NL.
If that happens, I doubt that the trade will be held to the same standards that the Bedard trade was. Folks won't gnash their teeth for three years every time Clement hits a ding.
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As you know, D-O-V threw second base out into LF when the Mariners traded a talented setup/closer for Ronny Cedeno and Garrett Olson, both of whom we claimed to be instant writeoffs, day-of-trade.
The consensus was that EITHER player was worth more than an 8K short man; D-O-V's take was that neither Cedeno nor Olson was worth a day's look in the American League.
To be fair, Heilman has struggled this year. But at the time of the trade, he was an established short man in the majors.
Hopefully he breaks out like Gil Meche in KC.. I'm a little concerned about the slider. Hes throwing it much less this season and it hasn't looked like the dominating pitch it once was a couple years ago (at least in his 3 starts in season).
This could be more of a long-term project, but I'm a lot more optimistic about this staff helping him out than I was with the previous regime.
...he did settle in and pitch well after the 3rd, and the 2 runs he allowed in the 2nd were Gutierrez' fault, not his.
He broke out in SEATTLE. The Mariners were just too stupid to extend his contract like I kept insisting thye should back in 2006. Meche was already a #2 starter starting June of '06 and no one in the Mariner blogosphere believed me. In fact I was laughed out of the room for suggesting we offer Meche a 4 year 36-40 million dollar extension that summer. He got 5/55 the next winter and continues to be an erratic but overall solid #2 starting pitcher.
Ya, I remember that. I actually thought he was showing signs of breaking out too, but I suggested something closer to 3/$18 which I think Meche would have taken at the time.
...but if he'd passed on 3/18 I'd have offered all the way up to 4/40 in a bargaining situation.
To coattail on some other good writing by others ...
SHOULD a GM be judged SOLELY on performance? If so, that makes 28 GMs idiots each season, doesn't it? But, what if a deal that looked good "at the time" ends up imploding? There's been massive grumbling about Bedard, (and certainly some grumbling at the time of the trade). But, what has Schmidt done for LA? Was it idiocy to sign Schmidt?
In fairness to Z ... while I have appreciated EVERY move he's made. There are certainly some that haven't worked as well as HE would like. Cedeno and Olson were JUST AS MUCH guys Z had confidence in that Guttierez is. Z ... like *EVERY* GM, has had some winners and losers.
Branyan, Guttierez, Aardsma ... even Griffey to a fashion were all pre-season picks that worked. During the year, Langerhans and Hannahan are clear upgrades.
But, also on the Z list ... Endy Chavez, Cedeno, Olson, Vargas, Woodward, and Sweeney.
However, I believe the picture of both Vargas and Olson has been FANTASTICALLY more negative than either has deserved. You'd think having lived through Feierabend, HoRam, Silva and Weaver that there would be a LITTLE reasonableness when speaking of ZERO COST 7/8 pitchers. Remember that Olson and Vargas were NOT the original plan. The original plan was RRS and Silva and Morrow as the top fallback.
I haven't heard ANYONE defend Olson and Vargas based on the reality that neither was a 4/5 SP. They were 7/8 SPs. What's the #1 criteria for a 7/8 pitcher? OPTIONS! Options and zero cost. Yes, Jack could've held on to the expensive swingman instead. But, Jack is looking at BOTH now and tomorrow.
I think what sticks in my craw most about the patter on Olson and Vargas is that they have repeatedly been described as anything from useless to pointless and beyond ... (all bad). Yet, up thru July 16th BOTH had a better ERA than Morrow, (and Vargas still does). The basic take on BOTH pitchers is that they are utterly completed products, with zero chance of being anything more than they are today. Meanwhile, Morrow gets a complete pass by everyone, who continue to pretend that he's destined for greatness.
The truth about Morrow? As a rookie, he ran a 1.67 WHIP. Olson's WHIP *TODAY* is only 1.44 and Vargas' 1.43.
What bugs me about the whole Vargas, Olson, Morrow dynamic is the complete and utter disdain for any performance that doesn't match pre-disposition. Without the names, which pitcher would seem a better upside, if given these stats:
2007 - 7.79-ERA; 2.16-WHIP or 4.12-ERA; 1.67-WHIP or 4.03-ERA; 1.38-WHIP
2008 - 6.65-ERA; 1.73-WHIP or 3.34-ERA; 1.14-WHIP or 7.33-ERA; 1.86-WHIP
2009 - 5.88-ERA; 1.44-WHIP or 5.28-ERA; 1.78-WHIP or 5.08-ERA; 1.43-WHIP
Who has the best K/BB ratio THIS year? (Vargas) Who has the better HR/9? (Vargas)
Yet, everyone continues to dream that Morrow will magically "get it" someday, (while simultaneously claiming there is nothing to 'fix').
In truth, Z didn't "miss" with Vargas and Olson. They were GRAND SLAM HRs -- because they were added because the Seattle farm system was completely devoid of IMMEDIATE fall-back SPs. But, fans (and pundits), aren't really interested in anything other than stars.
Jack was hoping for more from Cedeno. He gave him all the rope he could ... and then he went and got something else to try. But, even where he missed, he was thinking 2 moves ahead. He gets Cedeno to backup Yuni, (low confidence?). He dumps Yuni, and gives Cedeno the job, but Cedeno fails. BUT, Cedeno was a contract he could dump easily. Picking up Wilson is a little higher risk, (more money and time), but that move is made with a slightly higher confidence in understanding the whole picture.
It's not that Jack hasn't failed with some picks. It is that thus far, he hasn't been STUCK with a failed pick. Snell is probably his first real gamble in that regard. The time and money there is such that a complete failure by Snell actually hurts the club beyond immediate returns.
But, of course, Snell has a rough 13 innings, and the wailing begins, (though Morrow was posting a 6.1 BB/9 in 46 innings, and today most are STILL convinced he'll turn it around). Why does Morrow get an entire summer to find HIS control, while Snell is with the team for 10 days, and people are asking "how come he isn't fixed yet?"
You're spot on Doc. There's a major shortage of reasonableness, (and even shorter supply of patience), when it comes to the Ms.
To be lost in the comments.
I'm going to have an easy couple of days playing pepper with it next week. :- )
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You probably missed it San-Man, but that was exactly my caveat on Vargas, Olson, and Jakubauskas. Having guys like that for #6-7-8 starters is fine. In fact, we praised Jack effusively for scrounging 10 good starts out of spaghetti-against-the-wall Vargas.
That's the difference, when your scrounged players can come up and contribute a little bit. To me that's nifty talent judgment, getting a short ML contribution out of your #34 player.
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But we are pointed about our opinion as to whether Olson, Vargas, and French are the long-term answers. :- ) We're trying to be clear, as opposed to critical.
Oh, my musings on Snell are far less sophisticated than that. I don't know that I can project his skillset or approach. I've only seen him throw a handful of pitches. My original interest in Snell sorta coincided with Sandy's, looking at his 'breakout' season with the Pirates... Based only on his age and his strikeout ability, with reasonable control, well there are only, what, 20-30 guys in the bigs who can execute that kind of performance over a season.
Your analysis of his mechanics are interesting though, they temper my enthusiasm for his future.