I'm with you there on both believing in its affects while admitting I could be wrong or overvaluing. The effect has been mentioned about a speed guy at the top and I'm not so sure that's huge unless the speed is huge. I am more certain that a Raines or Rickey has an effect on the hitting behind them when they're on base. Who is leadoff on this squad if not Ackley, BTW?
Love the"6 inning player"phrase, that makes a lot of sense.
the initial fangraphs response was "sure, in 2013 Morse is more valuable than Jaso, but then he's gone and Jaso has 2 years left." You know how the grapevine works though. Now I'm hearing how hands down Jaso is more valuable in 2013, but that's not the predictions I can find otherwise. I agree with all those reasons and think adding a pair of MOTO as cheaply as they did is astounding. Would like to see a leadoff guy, but nothing interests me. bourn its unfortunately the best available.
Dr. K sez,
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Count me in the camp that initially didn't understand why JZ exchanged Jaso for Morse. The conversation here at SSI has changed my mind and here are the main reasons.
Let's go along with the idea that Jaso is one of your best hitters in 2013, meaning you bat him 3rd in the lineup. Well, what happens when your prime hitter has an obvious achilles heel? If you rely on Jaso in the later innings (implicit with the assumption he is one of your best hitters), you have to accept that he is going to be facing a lot of LH specialist relievers in key situations. Why would you construct a team with such an easily exploitable flaw?
This is a very large, very basic light bulb that had never been on for me before.
Let's say that Ken Griffey Jr. had been a career .179 hitter against lefties. This would have made it just about impossible for him to hit in the 3 hole. The guys on the bench would have been going, "Sure, he's fine in the fifth inning. But in the seventh inning they just knock him over with their LOOGY."
I was always very fond of batters with huge platoon splits, but it suddenly dawns that these kinds of guys have mostly just been pinch-hitters in the big leagues. I never thought of a platoon hitter as a six-inning player, but now I do.
............
Personally I'm optimistic about Jaso hitting LHP's. But he does have a career AVG of .164 and SLG of .230 against them. If you don't see Jaso as able to defend himself against LHP, you don't see him as a three hitter, period.
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That was worth the price of admission, but Dr. K is just gettin' loose:
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The other aspect of the trade that I find very interesting is how defense is playing out in the determination of the players value. For Morse, he is a bad defender even at the 'easy' positions. Jaso is a bad defender at a hard position. This is the critical source of value differentiation between the players. They both cost you with a glove in their hand, but they hold very different gloves.
What is the chance that the current thinking, call it fangraph thinking for lack of a better term, is exactly backwards? Really, what is the chance that Jaso's poor glove work at a critical position costs you many more wins than Morse's poor glove work in LF? I think the chance is really quite high and here is why.
First, fangraphs thinking hasn't figured out how to judge many aspects of catcher defense, so it doesn't try. Fangraphs thinking does know that it is a lot more difficult to find a functional catcher than a LF which it addresses with a positional adjustment. The positional adjustment between C and LF is a large part of the difference in value between Jaso and Morse. By failing to measure C defense, but still applying a positional adjustment, you are effectively saying only competent catchers get to catch in MLB and therefore all catchers deserve the full benefit of playing a hard defensive position.
I think JZ is saying with this trade Jaso is not a competent MLB catcher, accept in a pinch. Is this the correct assessment? I haven't a clue, but fangraphs thinking positional adjustments tacitly assume big league teams get this call right on average, so why does fangraphs thinking change for the specific case of Jaso? JZ is the second GM in two years to decide Jaso doesn't have a future as a regular catchers in MLB. Why do you think it is reasonable to value Jaso like a catcher, when JZ and Friedman effectively value him as a DH?
:: taps chin ::
:: thinks several minutes ::
Fangraphs "sets" a +12 runs value for playing catcher, -7 runs for LF, and -17 runs for DH. These values are pulled out of thin air, but seem reasonable to me.
The basic idea of the positional adjustment, in my mind, is PLAYER PAIRS. If Morse plays LF and bats 3rd, then the M's have to have somebody else play C and bat 4. But if Morse plays C and bats 3, then the M's can find a LF to bat 4. It's pretty likely that they're going to be able to get +20 runs' extra production out of the LF Yahtzee slot, rather than the C Yahtzee slot. So, the positional adjustment is more than fair - it's even conservative.
But! This paradigm DOES stand or fall with the presumption that the defender is NOT BELOW CRITICAL MASS. As Kelly says, the very idea of "plays catcher" assumes the idea of "plays it according to industry standard." That part of the idea is automatically taken care of by ML managers for us.
A Fangraphs author would say, "Well, we do count up the runs he loses through passed balls, bases stolen, etc." But what they don't count is whether the pitcher has a bad day.
So this idea has traction. Jaso (and Montero, and Piazza, etc.) are deemed worth +20 runs vs. Morse, before we even start, because they "catch." BUT it could be that --- > THEY DO NOT CATCH. Not according to the underlying assumptions behind what catching is.
Put another way, you could have a positional adjustment of +12.5 runs for "C1, competent catcher" and one of -17.5 runs for "C2, makeshift catcher whose CERA hurts the team." If this were so, Jaso would lose 3 wins per year.
It isn't proven. It is something that might be true, like it might be true that football creates a lot more brain damage than we realize.
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Dr. K follows on,
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So we exchanged one DH for another and should therefore only compare offensive value. Jaso has two huge advantages on Morse. (1) Jaso has exquisite control of the strike zone when facing RH pitchers and (2) he is under club control for three more years. Morse has two huge advantages on Jaso. (1) Morse has the ability to hit a baseball really hard and (2) he has no platoon splits.
While it is generally dismissed by fangraphs thinking, I believe baseball players generally believe in the importance of the batting order and consequently take the traditional roles to heart. I believe getting Ackley, Seager, Smoak, Saunders, and Montero out of the 3-5 batting positions as much as possible until they feel they have earned the position will help them avoid anxiety induced under-achievement.
I personally believe that we should also include a factor more important than any of the others: that Morse's production is a "hard" production that withstands the "bookup" processes that enemy pitching has brought to bear against him. Jaso, to date, has been sneaking up on people; maybe his production will hold up going forward and maybe it won't.
His best against your best, Morse is going to get his 6-7 runs per 27 outs.
..........
Effect on teammates is speculative: will the big RBI men at 3-4 lead to a "hitting is contagious" effect? That's hotly debated.
What's NOT hotly debated, inside baseball, is that it helps Dustin Ackley if he doesn't have to bat leadoff. They send him out there in the 7 hole, just stay within yourself, kid, take some good swings. Or they send him out there in the 1 hole -- Dustin, if you don't score a run tonight, the Seattle Mariners are going to lose. So let's talk about you vs Jered Weaver.
Lonnie, Mo' Dawg and I remember when Edgar Martinez his ownself needed some space to grow. When kids start letting the game come to them, taking their pitches when they show up, that's when most kids start improving fast.
I'll cheerfully admit that I may have false beliefs, as far as the ripple effect of getting a "lineup legitimizer" into your batting order. But one thing we all can agree on ... with Ackley, Montero, Smoak, letting them hit 6-7-8 is gonna be a beautiful thing.
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Comments
Ryne Sandberg played 5 seasons in the minors - 456 G / 1991 PA
His 1st 2 years in the majors - 314 G / 1386 PA => OPS = .672
Chase Utley played 5 seasons in the minors - 433 G / 1866 PA plus he had played at UCLA 179 G / 829 PA
His 1st 2 seasons in the majors - 137 G / 439 PA => OPS = .729
Dustin Ackley played 3 seasons at UNC - 207 G / 980 PA plus 2 seasons in the minors - 200 G / 918 PA
His 1st 2 seasons in the majors - 243 G / 1044 PA => OPS = .673
Sandberg's 3rd year OPS = .887 and he won the MVP
Utley's 3rd year OPS = .915
Maybe there's still hope for Dustin?
...that positional adjustments, as done by fangraphs, are wrong-headed. I understand the theory, and Doc explains it well...but real baseball teams do not operate with players that are relative to the whole talent pool or even some ethereal "replacement level" talent pool. As Doc has also argued elsewhere, it does not help you to know that the "replacement level" first baseman hits .270/.334/.416 when your first baseman right now is hitting .209 with no walks and minimal power and the next best options are "below replacement" because most of the other players already have teams. Offense is offense. No matter where it occurs, it's got a set value...the position pairs argument demands that there are 9 flavors of hitters...playing 9 different positions. But that isn't how big league front offices really work.
for the front page promotion.
What I find most compelling about the trade is that I never would have done the trade, but compelled to think about it, I have now concluded it was the right move. Most criticisms seem to view it as a failure of old school color by numbers thinking. I think it reflects Z's confidence that -- since he has been given the time to build organizational depth -- he can always fill the back end of the roster with capable role players. If the M's saw Jaso as a catcher, rather than a platoon DH, he'd still be on the team.
Like some of the other readers, my initial reaction to the deal wasn't positive. However, upon further review (i.e. reading the analysis on this site) I am much more on board now. However, I have to ask: I thought Jaso had pretty much been functioning as the personal catcher for Felix last year? I suppose Felix would rather throw to someone else and stop losing games 2-1...
Ackley spent nearly all of his MLB '11 hitting 3rd or 5th. He seemed to like it.
In '12 he lead off. He didn't seem to like it.
Worth considering, I suppose.
Doc is right on. Almost all hitters have a growth process...after they hit the majors. Ackley and Montero and Seager have room (and likely will) to grow.
Good stuff, Bat.
I'm ready for Romero and Franklin and Liddi. Let 'em swing. Let 'em grow.
moe
Put another way, Utley had OPS+ of 87 and 93 at ages 24 and 25 ... then became a superstar at age 26. (Granted, it was in 440 ML plate appearances.)
Sandberg spent three calendar years struggling, ages 21-23, OPS+ well south of 100. He needed 1,400 ML at-bats and then he exploded into a HOF'er.
Ackley has right around 1,000 PA's in the bigs, with an OPS+ (93) that mirrors the two guys you mention.
...........
We're all well aware of the "Age 26 With Experience" rule from John Benson. But those examples are somehow extra-compelling.
Right now the only guy with a respectable OBP would be Seager, and he has a rawhide-tough attitude about his game. His game is more about RBI than R, but ...
In rotisserie, it's axiomatic that if you take a pull from the LF player pool, you're going to get a whale of a lot more offense than you will with your pull from the C player pool. But as you say, individual MLB orgs don't take pulls from pools of 30 major league catchers. They've got what they've got -- Adam Moore at catcher, or Mike Zunino at catcher.
For SURE, replacement level varies wildly according to the island of talent that a team is standing on.
Because his body language, enthusiasm, etc on the mound doesn't wobble around depending on the catcher. Felix is who he is.
But ya.
Here is a Hardball Times article that declares the Soph Slump to be a real and pernicious phenomenon, although there are problemos with the assumptions...
I wonder if you aren't right Mo' Dawg. Ackley's swing got all fouled up, weird shape to it, and it doesn't seem unlikely at all that he was compensating for "leadoff hitter role" expectations. And those role expectations DO exist.
how about some quotes?
July 7th 2012: Wedge was asked whether Ackley was doing anything differently as a leadoff hitter. “He had better plate coverage,” Wedge said. “I mean, he knows this. Eveybody out there knows what the hell they need to be doing in order to be successful. And that’s the most frustrating part of it. But ultimately, they’ve got to do it.”
July 18th 2012:"I know what I’ve been doing wrong – getting out too far on my front foot, not waiting for the pitch to get to me,” Ackley said. “The last four or five days I’ve felt great in batting practice, but I’d get in the game and fall back to the same bad habit"
And
“I have a narrow stance, and I have most of my life. I tried widening it this season, then went back to my comfort zone. That’s my stance, and I got back to that. The job now is to keep that approach.”
I think this is a part of the one I was looking for, where Ackley talks about his lineup spot preference. Unfortunately there was a maximum set for the coveritlive interview and it won't load anymore.
April 20th 2011:"I hit leadoff a little in college, maybe one year. For me, the two hole might be the most productive because it's a spot where you have to bunt, not really be a power hitter."
I kept changing the search phrase to get a little more of the comment but that's where i couldn't get it to go any further. I'm certain he said at some point that a certain spot in the lineup is where he's very comfortable because he's hit there most of his life, but i'm having trouble finding the quote. Pretty sure it was leadoff or #2 and i thought it was when he was being moved to that spot for the first time. I've spent a few hours searching different phrasing that i could think it may have been with no luck.
http://seattletimes.com/html/mariners/2015553479_marinotes09.html
— Dustin Ackley insists it doesn't matter where in the lineup he bats, because the whole thing gets shuffled around with each new inning anyway.
Ackley was promoted to the No. 3 spot Friday, with slumping Justin Smoak bounced back to No. 5. The move comes just three weeks into Ackley's big-league career.
"Once the game starts, you're hitting third one inning, you're hitting second another inning, then sixth in an inning," he said before the game. "I usually just take it like that. With a lineup, you see it on paper, but once the game starts it jumbles up and you're hitting in any different position."
Ackley was asked to bat third his freshman year at North Carolina. He was moved to the leadoff spot his sophomore year and to the Nos. 2 and 3 spots in his junior season.
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He hit .400+ at positions 1, 2 or 3 in the order. I think he does feel pressure to hit for power when in a "power" slot, and that may have helped get him off his game, but IMO he should be a classic #2 in the Jeter mold.
Of course, he hit worse after his stance correction, not better. Part of that was a miserable .240 BABIP in the second half of the season, but... yeesh. The guy should hit like Mark Grace, and as a second baseman that would make him a folk hero. A lower BA would come because he felt compelled to hit for more power, but that should still make him Robin Ventura.
So: .300/.380/.440 or .270/.360/.440. Take your pick. .220/.300/.330 is not a line he should have again with normal luck and understanding his swing.
Fingers crossed that he's got that back under control and is willing and able to hammer balls to oppo when necessary like he did in his first season in the bigs, especially now that he's comfortable fielding his position.
~G
I've thought about the leadoff slot, Doc. Problematic is a good word. We don't really have a traditional leadoff-type guy, at all. I suppose Ackley is it by default, but I prefered him as a guy trying to mash the gaps and not wear down pitchers by taking pitches. Maybe that whole appraisal is impacted by his Sophomore slump and his stance struggles. If so, then he's likely back in his comfort zone this year. He'll do fine at leadoff then.
I also think I like the idea of Romero as a low BB, quasi-mashing, leadoff hitter....sometime down the line. If he doesn't change his approach in that spot in the lineup, that is.
moe
That the fundamental problem with MLB hitters is that they get too much coaching, and try to tinker too much. Like 98% of their tweaks just mess them up. That's his observation.
As you say, if Ackley had a swing that felt great to him in college, then the "adjustments" he makes to MLB slumps are probably just taking him backwards...
Just 'cause he's got such solid contact skeeeels...
The quotes that Wish and G point out, if Ackley "gets it" on the lineup carousel thing, and he realizes that it's all about his own swing, then as soon as he heats up a little, he'd work for me in the 1 slot... certainly Ack runs much better than most of the current teammates...
Especially regarding defense. A left fielder, our fist baseman is involved in less than a dozen plays per game (Trayvon set a record last year with 14 right?), while the catcher has a part in every single play. If you can get a guy who is even 1 percent better at pitch calling, that could make a bigger difference than getting a guy who is 10 times better in the outfield.
It could very well be that Jaso was a but of a push over in the pitch calling department and let the pitchers have their way too often. We don't know how good Jaso is with average pitching talent in average pitching environments after having spent his career with the über talented Rays staff and the offense demolishing Safeco field. You can't really pull a catcher when he's calling a poor game.
Another thing, a lot of hay has been made on fangraphs lately about the increased value of the stolen base recently due to decreased run scoring and in particular, home runs. It follows that, at least while they are in Safeco, that value is even higher. It's been argued that Jaso isn't so much worse than league average at catching base stealers, but, if you look into last years numbers a bit, you find out that Jaso did not stop stolen bases 21% of the time. Of the 7 times Jaso caught a runner, 1 was at home, which are flukes when a runner even tries, and 3 were pick offs, where Jaso took advantage of runners lack of respect and threw around the batter. Those are well and good, but I doubt he continues to pull them off now that people have seen he can do it. That leaves runners with 27 successful steals vs. 3 actual failed attempts, or a 90% success rate. That is just way too easy to take a base.
All three were batting leadoff in the minors. Landry is the "pure" play; speed (18 triples), OBP in the .370 range (although he could walk more) and a 13% K rate, combined with a 'you gotta beat me' attitude. Miller had 7 triples and 23 SB with 7 CS (so probably not quite as fast), but a .410 OBP with a goodly number of walks, and a lowish (16%) K rate. Franklin has about a 20% K rate and a lower OBP, and probably should bat lower in the order to spread out the pop.
If Miller shows focus and agility in the field during Spring Training, and bats leadoff successfully during the games, I wouldn't be surprised to see him as Ryan's backup early in the season and to get a shot at leadoff, allowing Ackley to bat 2nd or 6th. The lack of aggressiveness in finding a new leadoff man with Ackley's struggles there tells me they think somebody is close. And Landry could very well be on the Seager rocket sled path right behind.
LF, RF - 2 plays per game
CF - 3 plays
3B - 2-3 plays, I forget
SS, 2B - 5 plays per game
Question being how many 'marginal' chances are there -- how many balls into the gap are there, every game, that one left fielder MIGHT get to, that another player might not. I've often maintained, watching from the 3rd deck, that in MANY (maybe most) games there are NO marginal chances for ANY outfielder. So I suspect that the number of extra catches, that any corner outfielder makes, is smaller than people think it is.
Watch your next game and notice that, from the left fielder's point of view, he catches two lazy fly balls, and throws in two ground-ball hits that went through the infield.
... I don't say that speed in the outfield means nothing, of course. I love speed in the outfield. I just don't think that, in LF and RF, it's as MUCH of a factor as people say it is. Baseball history has a lot of Barry Bondses and Ted Williamses in left, and not many Endy Chavezes.
If Michael Bourn could take away 1 hit every 3-game series with his legs in LF, then everybody would have a fast LF.
If he had some sort of Johnny Damon game offensively, he'd spend a lot of time on ESPN...
In the few videos I've seen, he runs well - almost the antithesis of Montero in that he runs like he's been well coached and knows exactly what he can do, even if he doesn't have blazing speed. Similar in that respect to Saunders. In one video I've seen of a college triple, you can see him round second heading for third with the same kind of long, smooth strides that the Condor shows, with the same kind of 'kick' as he rounds the bag and decides to go for it.
If he keeps up the numbers he put up in Jackson, he could probably be very productive at leadoff. Another thing from the videos I've seen, though, he appears to be a poor bunter (Harold Reynolds would cringe at the push as he bunts), so batting second might not be a good place in close games. Also, because of the long strides, he appears a bit slow out of the box, but video of him beating out a grounder to third shows he gets it up to a good pace very quickly.
He has the plate skills to seeso. even pitches, he has the speed, and he won't be one of 2 guys to threaten 20 homers seasons next year. I vote Michael Saunders for lead off.
Saunders has a high K% - 24% this last year, 26% for his career. More importantly, his passiveness in his first 3 seasons was part of his problem. He needs to be free to jump on any pitch, rather than trying to see a lot of pitches. While his speed plays well, his power may develop further if he continues what he's doing now. I don't think he's a good choice for his own long-term development reasons.
It's not clear whether he's best starting rallies, or finishing them. He's fairly good at both, and who knows whether he'll settle in as "very good" at one or the other?
I have no idea whether the Best Case Saunders would score 100 and drive in 80, or the reverse. It's very hard to get a bead on him that way.
To date, however, he's got quite a few more R than RBI.
Look back to the career of Felipe Alou and you see what I think Saunders can be. At times he had RBI totals, other years he led the league in runs. If you come up to a team with Mays, Cepeda, and McCovey, and are as talented as both Felipe was and Saunders is, you fit the talent into the lineup - and speed and power together ALWAYS fit. The problem is, the other hitters weren't there last season for Michael and the Ms. The Ms are doing it backwards; they've got Alou and need to add Stretch, Say-Hey, and Cha-Cha, or enough power to be equivalent.
I really expect Saunders to be, like Alou, that #5, 6, or 7 hitter that can score 90+ runs and drive in 80+, steal bases and take the extra base, and generally drive the pitcher to distraction, IF Montero, Morse, and Morales provide the major power, and Seager, Ackley, Zunino, et al, play the parts of Davenport, Kuenn, and Haller and get on base and hit enough XBH that pitchers can't relax.
If Smoak can put it together the way Michael did last year, then the Ms could have a championship-level lineup. Although no one is saying that Montero, Morse and Morales are in the same conversation as Mays and McCovey, by having multiple threats, the effect can be similar. And if either Seager or Ackley can hit ~.300/.360/.440, then that replaces either Davenport or Kuenn's production; if both, then it's comparable to the '62 Giants. Haller hit .260/.380/.510 in that, his first full season. Can Zunino do that in 300 PAs? And, finally, 2B & SS - Chuck Hiller and Jose Pagan on the 1962 Giants. Any OPS over .670 does it, particular since neither were great fielders - Ryan and Ackley are definitely better, Miller and Franklin are probably better, and Andino at least their equal.
So, hard as it may be to believe, the Ms aren't really that far off in pure talent (and if they could get Stanton, they're there). Turning talent into performance is another thing. But I am struck by the similarities in baseball savvy. Ackley, Seager, Zunino, Saunders, and Miller all seem to have that studied approach to the game that makes the most of their own talent and later on helps others do the same. Davenport, Kuenn, Hiller and Haller all later managed, as, of course, did Alou. Haller became a GM. Has JackZ been able to build the same kind of team? So, are the 2013 Ms the 1960 Giants (79-75) or the 1961 version (85-69). Is Felix ready to do his Dominican Dandy imitation (From '62-'69: 18-11, 25-8, 21-8, 22-13, 25-6, 14-10, 26-9, and 21-11)?
While writing the above comment on Saunders and Felipe Alou, it occurred to me how much Michael Morse's skills are like Cepeda's, and Montero's are like McCovey's. As you probably know, Cepeda came up in 1958 and hit well and played 1B for the Giants. The following year, McCovey came up and promptly set the baseball world on fire a la Mike Trout (I was at his first game where he hit a triple off of Robin Roberts that went off the right field wall and ended up in deep left). But he was NOT a good fielder, except as a 1B, where his size, soft hands, and knee-to-knee agility played pretty well. So Cepeda moved to the outfield, where his play was a major argument for the designated hitter - in fact Alou originally came up as a defensive replacement for late innings until he proved that he, too, could hit. Cepeda was not fast, but held on to what he got to. His routes were like Morse's. When he was traded to StL. to play 1B, I suspect he danced for joy.
Meanwhile, although McCovey could hit the ball harder than anyone I've ever seen (and I saw Aaron and Mays repeatedly and up close), he looked like a cross between an ostrich and a rhino while running. I saw him get thrown behind after rounding first during his first couple of years (once by Clemente) until he slowed on turning. At speed, he was not as slow as Montero, but he could not change direction or hit the bags smoothly when rounding them. But boy, did the ball and bat make a sound when he connected!
Bat, I'm with you. I see Saunders as the classic #6 hitter (or my classic #6). Surprisingly, though...if you had righties at 1 and 3, he would be a wicked #2, as well.
I suspect we see him at both of those slots this year. Morse is whacking #4 and Morales #5, mostly. Although against lefties I would not be surprised it Morales hits third and Montero 5th. Against RHP you'll hit Seager 3rd. It's unlikely that you hit lefties Ackley, Saunders and Seager 1-3 against RHP. So against righties you run out a RH batter in the #2 slot...or you're willing to PH late in games frequently. It wouldn't surprise me if you see Guti or Wells or Ryan hit #2 against righties. If we're not using Guti and Wells in a platoon, mind you. None are great fits, but if prevents a run of three lefties that makes late inning relief pitching an easy decision for opposing managers. Morse at #4, Morales at #5, Saunders at #6, Montero at #7, DH at 8 and Ryan at 9, perhaps. Not bad, vR. vL I think I bat Morse 3rd and Montero 4th.
So...Wedge still thinks Smoak is our starting first baseman. Which means Morse is our FULL TIME starting LF, Morales is our FULL TIME DH and Montero is our FULL TIME catcher...if Smoak hits well in ST...that is what Wedge wants to do.
Wow.
Talk about a line-up LOADED with power if Smoak hits three cherries and finally remembers how to hit.
Against righties, you'd have:
CF) Gutierrez (he has the long ABs you need form your lead-off hitter...he's the best fit here)
3B) Seager (he has less of a platoon split than our other line drive hitting lefties)
DH) Morales (his extreme contact skill makes him the ideal three-hitter)
LF) Morse (big donkey-lite)
1B) Smoak (he liked hitting 5)
RF) Saunders
C) Montero (keep the pressure off him...he GIDP'd so many times with runners on last year...it suggests he was pressing)
SS) Ryan (keep your worst hitter away from your core guys)
2B) Ackley (bat him WAY down here until he gets hot...then flip he and Gutierrez)
And against lefties, you'd have:
CF) Gutierrez
RF) Saunders (hit lefties well last year...your best bet against them if you have to pick one lefty for up here)
C) Montero (he owned lefties even last year)
1B) Morse (Smoak struggled against lefties last year)
DH) Morales
LF) Wells/Bay (death to lefties)
SS) Ryan (got on base well against lefties)
3B) Seager/Andino (bury to bad lefty stuff here)
2B) Ackley (keep him at bay until he's hot)
That team has a TON of potential.