To expand on Doc's point regarding bad luck in the Mariner line-up...
last year, the Ms struck out 1184 times in 5409 at bats. Their BABIP was .282 - lower than average for Safeco Field...average there is .293) so they did legitimately lack BABIP skill. Some of that was low LD% (they were near the bottom of the league in LD% last year at 17.8%).
This year, they've fanned a prorated 1237 times (LOL) in 5331 ABs. Their BABIP is .268. So no...the low team BA is not just the result of increased K rate...they're fanning at (more or less) the same rate and their BABIP is down despite at least some of the bad BABIP last year being bad luck too and despite their LD% being way up, their K/BB being way up, their FB% being slightly up etc. We should expect them to hit .290, not .268. That means we're missing about 8 hits (4 or 5 runs depending on XBH luck) and 2 HRs (based on HR/Fly vs. last year). Doesn't sound like a lot, but it could have made a huge difference in a couple of our early losses.
PROPS TO JUSTIN SMOAK'S GAME-SAVING THROW to cut down the tying run in the 8th. G-Money sez,
Smoak tracking that ball down deep into foul territory then firing a shot back to Olivo, knowing that a swift baserunner at 3rd might tag up...
Good, heads-up stuff there. He's doing some things wrong at the plate but he's got time to fix it. What he's doing right is very right, and he's a gamer in my book.
He saw fastball, hit fastball in his first AB, grounded out on a nasty breaking pitch (change I think) in his second after failing to swing at any of the inside pitches, then swung at the first pitch, a FB in the zone, in his third.
He's still working out his approach. Some nights he's too patient, some he's too greedy. I like watching him tinker. He's been a better hitter as a lefty so I'm stoked to see him doing so well from the right side. It means when he controls his greed from the left he's gonna do serious damage.
In the meantime, he's just making plays. I'll take it.
~G
That'll do for us too. Except Dave Henderson said, in the booth, he thought Smoak should have dropped that ball because it was so unlikely that he'd throw out Patterson on the play.
Smoak's throw was such that Patterson was not only out, but took away his slide - the play might have turned into a rundown play.
Afterward on the radio, Smoak was hilariously "Aw, shucks, Paw" about it. Before he guided the radio conversation back towards "the kid" (!) on the mound...
People have been talking about Smoak for Gold Glove for a while. He won't have the range, but he's got the Cal Ripken combo: big slow guy, good arm, great hands.
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PROPS TO ERIC WEDGE who had four hitters going good: Bradley LF, Saunders CF, Langerhans CF, and Smoak 1B.
He got all four into the lineup, benching Cust (howzat fer ya Matty), and .... Langerhans and Bradley won him a ball game.
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Wedge also batted Olivo 4th against Romero -- no doubt Olivo had some splits vs. Romero, or vs LHP, or vs curve balls, or something. And he hit Luis Rodriguez 6th.
I love the statement Wedge made: winning matters, not comfort zones.
Did come back to bite him, though, in the 8th. M's got runners on 2nd and 3rd, Bradley up, and they walked MB to get to "cleanup hitter" Olivo :- )
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Props to Wedge again for not dog-housing Jack Wilson. Wedge tied Wilson to a stake, gave him a military six lashes, and then it was over. Report for duty, soldier. You're batting second.
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PROPS TO JACK ZDURIENCIK who has fitted Eric Wedge with 4-inch fangs so that he can execute this kind of thing.
As Geoff Baker has explained, the ballplayers came to camp knowing that Eric Wedge wins all confrontations. Good stuff.
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SLOPS TO L-ROD's OH-FER, although he did hit a tee shot at the center fielder. Hope it doesn't put Wedge off of playing him.
Maybe Figgins' jammed wrist will assure him a few more games?
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PROPS TO MILTON BRADLEY, on base twice more ... with an off-field GWRBI* against a mondo tough lefty.
Bradley's OPS+ is a neat 130+, and if he were to hit exactly like this, the M's would have a serviceable three hitter.
Baby steps, baby steps....
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PROPS TO MOJICIAN for his apt description of the "IRS Auditor's Row," based on extreme OBP and low SLG.
SSI commenters have gang-tackled the idea that such a lineup has to be consistent 1-9, or at least 1-7. We heartily concur.
Hey: isn't a point of OBP supposed to be worth 3 points of SLG? We're about to test that, right?
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Hey also: did you know that the M's lineup actually has had some poor luck. It is:
- #7 of 30 teams in line drive percentage (!?) -- 20.5% line drives, 18.5% being average
- #1 in pitches per PA
- #2 in fewest popups (a mere 5.8%, with 10.5% about average)
- #5 in highest BB percentage
- #4 in unluckiest HR/FB (5.8%, about 10-11% average ...remember Smoak's double off the stripe?)
The M's would even be leading baseball in stolen bases, except the Dodgers have one more. They're 12-of-14.
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PROPS TO THEIR BULLPEN, which I think the TV said has a 14-inning scoreless streak going. Maybe their pitching staff can buy them enough time to cobble a 90, 95 OPS+ offense by the dawn of the Ackley era ;- ) in mid-May?
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Cheerio,
Dr D