Seattle Sports Insider

Scutaro at 3B

Posted by

jemanji

11/28/09

Q. What a letdown -- Marco Scutaro at third base?

A. Here are Scooter's runs created per 27 outs the last four years, followed by Adrian Beltre's:

2009 - 5.8

2008 - 4.5

2007 - 3.8

2006 - 4.6

2005 - 4.2

LIFE - 4.5

Established performance 2007-09 -- 270/360/380

.........

Beltre:

2009 - 3.6

2008 - 5.2

2007 - 5.1

2006 - 5.2

2005 - 4.2

LIFE - 5.1

Established performance 2006-08, before crash -- 270/325/470

.........

Assume that Scutaro hits .270 with 80 walks -- that's what the GM's are assuming -- and he'll give you 80-100% of Good Beltre's offense. Except red-shifted to OBP rather than SLG.

Q. Is that good, shifting offense from OBP to SLG?

A. I love Adrian, but he is the "mistake hitter" that defined the soft pre-2009 Mariners. Throw a soft pitcher up there and he'd yank one for you. Get into a tough ballgame against a Weaver or Lackey and what then? He'd disappear.

Scutaro will give you 4.5, 5.0 runs per 27, but they'll be tough AB's. That's a Zduriencik ballplayer.

Q. Scutaro's going to be 34, right?

A. Yeah, signing a 2-year deal*, coming off a career arc that's going up like a golf shot.

Q. How's the D?

A. Fangraphs' UZR has some hilariously up-and-down data on him. For instance, in 2008 he was by far the best 3B in the majors* ... in 2007 he was by far the worst. HEH! -25 runs one year, +25 runs the next.

He's a real good shortstop but a worthless hack at 2B. :- )

UZR is great; its supporters sometimes fail to keep its limitations in perspective...

............

Anyway. Marco Scutaro is a legit major-league SS. He is comfortable at 2B and 3B. That means you assume that he is a Gold Glove candidate at 3B

Q. What's the bottom line on him at 3B?

A. Scutaro is what he is: he'll give you a 90-100 OPS+ next year, and it will be a "hard" 100. Safeco won't kill his walks on the warning track.

He'd be a real plus defender at 3B, creating this equation:

MEDIOCRE OFFENSE

+ TERRIFIC DEFENDER

-----------------

= FANGRAPHS "Twilight HOTEL MOB FRENZY"

Scutaro would give you an analog to Mike Cameron, J.J. Hardy, and all those guys. If you liked the idea of J.J. Hardy on the cheap, you gotta love Marco Scutaro.

Q. What's Dr. D's take?

A. With Hannahan, Chavez, Jack Wilson, I think Zduriencik gets carried away with defense. Blengino explained this as, "that's the only value you can get on the fly until you have a chance to set your feet and take a real swing."

I'm not huge on [mediocre offense + terrific defense], which is what Scutaro would give you at 3B.

But I'd console myself that it definitely patches a hole, makes the team better by fitting in a 55 player where it had a 35 player .... and it proliferates the options.

Q. The M's likely to sign him?

A. The institution of baseball is really icky at SS. Scutaro is worth three times as much, plugging a SS hole, as he is doing anything else.

I'd predict that the Sox or Dodgers overpay him. And they should.

Cheers,

Dr D

Comments

make them overpay

Scutaro could be in the mix at three positions where he could start and hold his own. He is insurance at 3B if Tui isn't ready out of spring training, injury insurance at SS for Wilson (we'd never need that, right?), and insurance if Lopez is traded in the off-season and Ack isn't ready for the bigs at 2B. If any of these are likely, I wouldn't mind having Scutaro.
As for how much he'll cost, make the Sox or Dodgers overpay for the precious SS commodity with the mediocre bat and a glove. We still need the big bats. I'd rather we overpay for that, or better yet, Jack can take advantage of the economic fire sales for talented big bats that other teams can no longer afford.

If you look at RE24 2009

If you look at RE24
2009 15.29
2008 0.85
2007 -4.77
If you look at REW ad WPA you see he has better REW than WPA.
So he is a Z type batter but he really was super only in 2009.
I think he is just average (or 2WAR) player for 2010 and 2011 costing the same value at 8mil/y.
Not a bargain....
And not worth a draft pick.

I don't get it

Why do you like the idea of siging Scutaro? He's the ultimate Civic, he'd block one of our best prospects and we'd give up a first round draft pick to have the honor of watching him try to get the ball out of the infield. That's the antithesis of a Stars and Scrubs approach and it isn't appealing in theory or in this particular case. If we were a 90-win team with a giant hole at one position it would be fine. But the M's are an 85-win team that needs to either add an impact player or roll the dice on a talented youngster. Going for certain mediocrity isn't likely to get the team to the playoffs but it could muck things up roster wise. He's seems like exactly the type of player you would insist the team pass on.

.800 OPS Tui

I'd rather have an .800 OPS Tui at 3B, Wilson for 150+ games at SS, and Ackley force his way into the lineup out of spring training, but I can't count on any of them to happen. The most likely scenario is that Scutaro finds a team needing a SS badly and is willing to pay accordingly. That won't be us.

See last 3 Q's

I'm *not* in favor of signing Scutaro. I'd play Tui.
SSI keeps warning the googly-eyed-mad-in-love ... that this administration is too biased towards defense, and too biased towards "I'll believe it when I see it" on ML-ready blue chippers.
I would absoLUTEly save money on Moore, Saunders, and Tui all 3, if it meant I could accomplish something like Lackey, Dunn, and Harden.
..............
Scutaro at SS, was the earlier conversation, and in that context he could be moving a 30 or even 20 position to 55-60. That's big.
Scutaro at 3B, for 1-2 years, is is contrary to Stars & Scrubs but moving a 35-40 position to 50-60 (due to glovework) brings clear advantages. Those are outlined above.
If Scutaro takes over at 3B for a year or two, I'll console myself that a 2009 hole has been upgraded, and that Tui might be a super-sub on the infield.
Would rather have a Dunn or Pena or somesuch.

Agree Watcher

Scutaro (1) wants to play SS and (2) from the buyers' POV's ... he's worth far more as a SS, especially this winter.
Hard to imagine him not signing somewhere as a SS. Teams need that.

Agreed about the $8M

If we are talking $8M, in this market, I don't want Scutaro for 3B as my big offensive move. I'm trying to find a way to deal kids to bring on Crawford, Granderson, Dunn, etc. for similar payroll impact.
At SS, when the alternatives were Ronny Cedeno and JOSH Wilson, $8M was a different conversation.
The alternative here is Matt Tuiasosopo, and Tui is everything you want in a young developmental player.