Jon Shields has various scouts' quotes on the M's top-100 pitching pheenoms, those being Paxton, Walker, and Campos (with Hultzen next).
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=== James Paxton, LHP ===
For those who just joined us, Baseball America is on the extreme right-side scouting end of the baseball-analysis spectrum. They are therefore not going to give as much weight to James Paxton's demonstrated 115/20 control, as a college pitcher at Kentucky, as they're going to give to the velocity of Taijuan Walker's fastball.
Dr. D aspires to the center of the spectrum, using both scouting and saber to figure out pitchers, and so he's rather higher on Paxton than tools scouts seem to be. Those who use only* clipboards or only* the Fangraphs site are not going to like Paxton as much as I do, since Paxton scores 95 cents on the dollar in both places.
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If it's an expansion draft, and I can only protect one minor leaguer in the Mariners' system, it is Paxton, gentlemen, not Walker.
Walker is thrilling, but there is no way you can put him #1 and Paxton #8. Paxton is the more valuable commodity.
Paxton's tools are 97% as dynamic as Taijuan's is -- his skill set is, like Kershaw's, actually an even better match for the ML game -- and of the two of them, Paxton is the one who has applied his tools more effectively.
Dr. D lifted an eyebrow to see that the scouts granted that Paxton's curve ball was the best one in the MWL. Paxton, you understand, is throwing 93-96 left handed. As with the young Dontrelle Willis, he'd probably be good even if he were operating just with the fastball.
But he has a whompin' curve into the bargain. And this horsepower is getting to the back wheels: he's a Billy Beane-style college K/BB pitcher. Not a high school kid, like Kershaw was.
The labels die hard. But I'll tell you this: like Michael Pineda before him, James Paxton is being wayyyyyyyy underrated.
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=== Taijuan ===
The scouts want him to show a change -- as they do Paxton. Sigh and double SSSSIIIIIIiiggggghhhhhhh.
I got to musing: doesn't any scout ever recommend a two-pitch approach, like Kershaw and Sabathia and Beckett and Kerry Wood and Pineda arrived with?
Like Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan and Doc Gooden and Bert Blyleven used?
I mean, wouldn't ONE scout SOMEWHERE argue, "hey, it's a lot easier for a kid to get a feel for two pitches. If both pitches are nuclear, why not let him pitch like Kershaw and Koufax and Carlton?"
Wouldn't one guy argue that, somewhere?
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=== Jose Campos ===
It was bemusing to see a scout say that "nobody" has "ever" thrown the fastball like Campos throws it. Deception, location, angles, movement. Not Jered Weaver in the minors? Not Tim Lincecum? Wow! I'm psyched.
Schilling-ocity or not, Jose Campos is everything you want in a teenaged righthander, no doubts there. He'll add velocity from here. It's no guarantee, but Campos is in the same pitcher template as Michael Pineda, and is at least even with where Pineda was at the same age.
If his fastball is that good, it would be nice to see him pitch like the young Schilling or Colon ... hey, like the old Colon, for that matter.
Hey, you could grab a freebie post out of that...
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