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You know that old joke about ... Who would you rather have on your park and rec basketball team?  Jamie, or Jordan?

1.  Jamie averaged 21 points per game last year, Jordan, only 13.  

Guess you'd take Jamie.

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2.  Jamie scored the 21 points in 40 minutes per game; Jordan, as a rookie to their team, scored 13 points in only 9 minutes a game.

Oh!  We shoulda taken Jordan, probably.

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3.  But Jamie did it in a men's league; Jordan, in a women's league.

We're back to Jamie.  PC, take a hike and turn left at the corner.  Buh-bye.

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4.  But Jamie did it in a high school league; Jordan, in the WNBA.

Whoop!  A'ight a'ight.  We had to take Jordan.  And count our park and rec league in the bag.

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5.  However, Jamie grew 6" this summer; Jordan had rotator-cuff surgery and is out 18 months.

Okay, we get the point....

I don't think you do.  Which is that most life problems work like this.  "It is not in man that walketh to direct his steps" - Jer. 10:23.  The Russell Wilson problem worked like this.

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Theory and Application, Dept.

Who do you like over the last 21 games?  Seattle, or Detroit?  Let's do this non-facetiously:

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1.  Detroit is -3 below .500 since May 30 (!), when they were 26 up and 12 down.  But Seattle is +16 over .500 since the same date.

I guess if you use "Lachemann weighting," taking the most current versions of the teams, then you go Seattle.  And it's an easy choice.

Stats aside, the Mariners are indeed getting better as the season goes on.  A lot better.  They have added Paxton, Ackley, and that's not to mimize ... Austin Jackson, Chris Taylor, Logan Morrison, the resurgence of Roenis Elias.

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2.  But Detroit has 4 Cy Young winners plus Rick Porcello, and 9 solid hitters.  How can that lose?

This is where our heads HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN.  We have only talked about catching the Royals or, now that it is obvious the Royals will win 90-93 games, we talk about catching the A's.  Not Detroit!

And it's because of the above.  We all believe Detroit is a better team.

Or do we?

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3.  But the M's run differential is +103 ... clearly "contender" status ... whereas Detroit's is a feeble +40.  Clearly non-contender status.

Run differential is the first, and main, place you go when trying to quickly get a feel for the "real" quality of a team.

RD is to won-loss record as K/BB/HR are to ERA.  You'd far rather have the root causes driving the stats, than the superficial stats themselves.

Guess it's Seattle that's going to pull it out.  They're a skosh ahead in the race now, and they have 2.5x the run differential.  Easy call!

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4.  But Detroit has somehow been "losing horsepower between the engine and back wheels."  Their lineup and rotation is FAR better than +40 runs.

The idea here is that --- > at any moment, you're going to see Scherzer, Verlander, Price, and Sanchez (!) get going in front of Cabrera, Martinez and 7 solid hitters.  They'll just hit their playoff gear.

Okay, I'm back to Detroit.

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5.  Detroit is losing horsepower for very good reasons.

Detroit is -60 runs defensively, according to John Dewan:

• -20 runs in RF (!), Torii Hunter
• -28 runs at 3B (!!), Nick Castellano
• -10 runs at SS, Suarez and Romine
• -4 runs in LF and -5 runs at CF (compare Mariners' 2013 outfield)

UZR concurs with all this:  the Tigers have catastrophic defensive stats in RF, 3B, and teamwide.

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And!  Detroit has massive problems in the bullpen, just discussed.  They have a 4.30 ERA in the bullpen, almost twice the bullpen ERA that the Mariners have.

You get an embarrassing defense among 8 gloves, and you get an embarrassing bullpen, well ... isn't that going to give you the opposite of "team chemistry"?  After 140 games of --- > lousy defense AND blown leads, don't you start EXPECTING to foul it up?

As a matter of fact you do, cubby.  

Yep.  Let's go with Seattle.  If such a thing as "chemistry" exists in any way, shape or form, the Mariners have a 24-karat gold Willy Wonka certificate for the wild card slot.  Over Detroit's fumblebutts, anyway.

No, that's not license for you to start pushing it on obscenity laws there, cubby.

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6.  But Detroit plays in the AL Central.

Their schedule, coming down the home stretch:

• Finish the Giants series
• Royals, x2 series
• Cleveland
• White Sox
• Minnesota

The M's schedule:

Finish the Rangers (Chris Young throwing skyballs in Tejas tomorrow, ulp)

• Lastros, x2 series ... okaaayyyyyy
• A's, x2 series
• Angels, x2 series (ulp ... best team in baseball)
• Toronto

Hmmmm.  Minnesota cancels the Lastros; the Royals cancel the Angels.  The A's, struggling badly, cancel Cleveland perhaps?  and then you have Toronto vs the White Sox.

I'd rather have Detroit's sched, but it's not such a big deal.

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7.  Leaving us where?

Detroit's star-studded lineup tries to get its head together in the face of Betty Boop-pen and Dr. Strangegloves.  It'll be a whale of a contest. :- )

Supposing you had to bet your right index finger on either Detroit or the Mariners, which would you take?

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Kendrys Morales:  Dr. Detecto = Moron

LOL!  Dr. D was absolutely the last holdout here, preaching forever the idea that "Kendrys is who he is."

Finally, at long last, on exactly Sept. 5th, SSI grudgingly declared the man DOA.  Cause of demise:  fatal lack of zip in the hands, much less in the feet.

Finally, at long last, on exactly Sept. 6th, Kendrys hauled off and hit two missiles into the RF seats, putting "PAID" to the citation of "No power this year." 

SSI cover jinx?

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In any case.  Krueger assessed it as "the extra moving parts" in Morales' lefty swing.  If Kendrys hits 110, 120 OPS+ from here, the Mojo pitching staff (soft underbelly = 5 IP of Elias) is going to go about 15-7...

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WBC-san = 80 pitches

Nice light outing ... almost half of a skipped turn, you might say.  Iwakuma, and Paxton, are now both minty-fresh.  As is Taijuan Walker, we might add...

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James Jones = 23 of 24 stolen bases

The man is an SB machine.  A machine, I tell you.  There have been no throws on his last coupla.  His 15' dive is unique in the history of all mankind.  Catchers treat their second basemen like Aaron Rodgers treats the wideouts to his right side at CLink.

When's the last time the Mariners had a player who could routinely steal a base in the late innings of a close ballgame?  Do you kiddies even know what it looks like?

:- O

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The Orcs

The M's are -2 games behind them.  There are 6 games left between the two clubs.  The Mariners have to go 4-2 there, of course, if they want to chase Oakland at all.  But if they do go 4-2, then the Mariners are effectively tied already.

Make sense?

And if they're effectively tied already, well, we're tied and the better team. ... lately.

I confused even myself this time,

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