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SABERMETRICS 101 ... er, 541
In April of 2012, we ran across an old Bill James article from 2009. At that time, SSI realized that The Inner Game of Baseball pivots around the batter trying to pull the ball in the air.
(It's a complex battle, because many pitches should not be pulled at all, much less in the air. It's like saying that NFL football pivots around downfield pass routes -- cornerbacks, speed DE's, and left tackles are critical. We're not saying that every NFL play should be a throw into the end zone, or that every Seager swing should be aimed at the right field seats.)
James parlays this insight into an entire paradigm for projecting hitters' success. You can read the article here. James asked, what makes one hitter DIFFER from another?, and he realized -- shell-shockingly -- that flyball/groundball/line drive rate is NOT a factor worth dwelling on. Not for hitters. You could dwell on it for pitchers, if you wanted to.
What factors ARE worth dwelling on?
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SSI BEST BETS, Dept.
In April 2012, if you analyzed Mariner hitters through this lens, one young hitter stood out like a sore thumb, that being Kyle Seager. Here was the Best Bet article we published at the time.
It was obvious that Seager -- like James' model, Dustin Pedroia -- was hitting the ball hard, yet with a high contact rate. Add into the bargain the fact that he had a high flyball rate ...
As many of you amigos saw also ... Seager was much more than a sabermetric checklist. The scouting eye loved, loved, loved the way he managed his AB's, and the strike zone ... forward-going, confident, but under control.
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STRIKE ZONE ...FAST FORWARD 1 YEAR
Seager is on a 15-game hitting streak, in which he has hit:
So he gets a hit or two in every game, and usually an extra-base hit. He's swinging harder than ever, and still with a contact rate that is comfortably above league average. (Seager is younger than league average; the league average is based on seasoned players.)
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Jack Moore wrote an article yesterday in which he sorted MLB players for "swing rate differences." Remember James' category #3, "take a pitch" rate? The player in the AL who has improved the most at that is --- > Kyle Seager. Seager's not one of the most improved players in the AL. He is THE most improved player, by this measure.
Here are Seager's plate discipline stats. Check the O-Swing% and Z-Swing% changes from 2012 to 2013. No, don't check them; we'll slam the Exec Sum. SEAGER IS STALKING PITCHES NOW.
Actually let's split it out ... here are his swings (1) "outside the zone," that is on pitches that would be called balls if the batter didn't swing. And on (2) pitches that would be called strikes, and (3) all swings:
| Year | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | Z-Contact% |
| MLB AVG | 29 | 64 | 45 | 86 |
| Seager, 2011 | 30 | 69 | 49 | 91 |
| 2012 | 30 | 68 | 48 | 91 |
| 2013 | 23 | 55 | 37 | 94 |
This despite the fact that Seager has seen a ton of LHP's, and a ton of Verlanders and Darvishes.
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Sabermetricians tend to see this as a simple choice to be more selective -- sort of a moral attribute, or at least an attitude. The article seems to conclude with this, last paragraph. The main comment on this is Bab's, in the thread, and this comment also directs its attention to "habits" and expermentation.
The real issue is pitch recognition. As Seager's getting more experience, the game's slowing down for him, and he's getting better at Back Leg Specials. They're coming more and more frequently, and realizing this, he's adapting his plate choices to his new abilities.
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George Kenneth Griffey, Jr.
Here were Griffey's home run totals early in his career:
This wasn't an attitude issue. It was a pitch-recognition issue.
SABRMatt went out on a limb today and said that, having seen April 2013 returns, he expects Kyle Seager to become Robinson Cano.* Which is what prompted this bit of analysis.
Dr. D had not realized that Seager had begun swinging at many fewer pitches. It's easy to dismiss this as a change in attitude, or habits. You, the discerning SSI reader, put it down to a PITCH RECOGNITION phenomenon, and one that ominously echoes the Ken Griffey Jr. rocket arc.
George Brett, in his prime, played 3B, ran the OPS+ of 145 based on hitting .320 with tons of doubles and 20 homers. Seager's OPS+ is 150 right now, doing exactly the same. At this point the comp is starting to look feasible, based on his pitch stalking and the latent aggressiveness implied.
Seager might not become George Brett. But during this 15-game hitting streak, he has sure as shootin' looked like it. (He won't hit .400 going forward, but apparently he will keep stalking pitches!)
And here again in 2013, he's an RBI man, into the bargain. His presence at the plate, his controlled aggressiveness, is a joy to watch.
Slap me silly, you might have found your 3-hole hitter for the next ten years. A cut-down version of Longoria's deal, y'think?
All of the advanced metrics that are available publicly make Seager and Cano very VERY tight comps at this point (look beyond the front of the card numbers...look at the tools stuff). Given my position, I can't say much more than that, but I don't see my comp as goig out on a limb.
:)
Pitch stalking was what The Hammer was talking about when he said good hitters were guess hitters.
Seager: 1. Swings Hard 2. Hits it often when he swings 3. Takes pitches he doesn't like 4. Pulls the ball and elevates it.
That's the Full Meal Deal.
Carlos Peguero: 1. Swings hard 2. Pulls the ball and elevates it. 3. Doesn't do the other two.
So he's the 1/2 Meal Deal. He does my #1 and #4. What does a hitter look like who does 1 & 4 AND one of the other two. A 3/4 Meal Deal, as it were?
I have to remind myself that Seager is a big guy, too. He doesn't look it at all. When I last wrote about how much I loved his hard swing I was going to mention Jimmy Wynn, the Toy Cannon, as a small guy (5'10 160lbs) who swung hard. But BR has Seager as 6'0 215. Aaron and Mays were both 180-ish (or less as youngsters). I know, ballplayers have got bigger.
But Seager is, in fact, a pretty big guy.
He's a MOTO guy. Mashes. Picks it at a corner position. Can play about anywhere (Minus CF or C is there not a position he could defend decently. And he's getting better.
He makes me smile. I need smiles.
moe
That Seager was the one guy on the team that really got what Wedge was talking about when he first brought up the controlled aggression stuff. His taking off is what kept me from jumping shop on the team with (seemingly) everyone else. Once Saunders comes back, that will give the Mariners 4 very solid bats. I still believe Smoak and Ackley are only a little luck from average, and with the pitching looking pretty solid, I still think the Mariners can make a run if things break right.
Based on the numbers above, should we be looking for his Z-Swing% to move up closer to MLB average? The 55% number makes me think there's an argument that he should be more aggressive in the zone. But, I'm not sure I'm thinking about it in the right away.
... if you look at the z-swings of other pitch stalker types... they tend to be a tad low. .. they don't just want to get strikes. .. they want pitches on which they can do damage. .. at least until they get two strikes on them. ..
Seager swings at a normal rate for two strikes... at least he appears to from my eye scan. .. he isn't getting rung up looking a bunch of Times
you might have to go back to being called ghost. :P
Any chance we can get Smoak and Montero some silk jammies (and Ibanez some Birkenstocks to help his balance while fielding)
The pure guess hitter is stalking a particular pitch, and trying to break a brick in the back concourse with it. Ted Williams being the prototype.
Seager isn't really doing that. In the looser sense, he's anticipating pitches and trying to winnow out the ones he can't hit with authority. George Brett's brand of pitch stalking was ... what, "pitch filtering"?
Way excellent 'put Matty. Yank$ are in good hands. ;- )
... wonder if Geoffy will tip us off when the jammies start appearing in peoples' lockers.