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That homeplate umpire today would have made sure the M's won Saturday's game even if you, I or wives were pitching.
I am embarrassed that the M's got so many calls without an Astro getting tossed.
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Bill James has a fresh article up in which he proves -- proves, now -- one specific thing. That thing is, "if your starting pitcher gets KO'ed early, you are not likely to lose the next game. In fact, you're a little more likely to WIN the next game."
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Bill looked at all games 1960-2013. He looked at all games 2000-13 separately. He looked at SP's who got KO'ed after getting 7 outs, and after 8, and 9, 10 ... 13 outs.
Maybe if the Sox knock Wade LeBlanc out of the 4th inning on Monday, and we burn up our pen, it will give the Sox an edge on us for Tuesday and Wednesday. It could happen; it's just that it has never worked that way for big league teams before.
It's logical that a fresh bullpen should help you win. It just isn't true. At least in this limited context, "the day after a pitcher was brutalized very early."
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Jerry DiPoto was just quoted, very pointedly, to the idea that when we had Felix, then we could --- > deploy our relief pitchers when we WANTED to, rather than when we HAD to. He represented this as the Big Key to the season.
Maybe he's right. Could be the 2016 Mariners are that 4% of the team population pool that is missed by the general sweep of stats. Maybe the 4% of teams that DO need fresh bullpens have 1.5 reliable relievers -- Diaz and Cishek -- and THAT kind of team needs long innings out of its starters. Then it can deploy Nick Vincent and Vidal Nuno very, very judiciously, getting good years out of them through underexposure.
Saturday's game was a vivid Exhibit A for DiPoto's judgment. Iwakuma handed a 1-run lead over to our two good relievers, who won the game for us.
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I'm wide open to the idea that you got to talk sweet to a fragile bullpen, if you're going to keep it running 48 MPH and keep it between the lines. It's just that I've always thought the "rested bullpen" thing was a giant steaming pile of hogwash.
Thirteen relievers. Bah humbug,
Dr D
Comments
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Considering the general hosing Ms have gotten from most umpires calling balls and strikes this season, and basically throughout their pitiful history, it was a pleasure to see the generosity for a change. Astros also benefitted from the generous strike zone several times Saturday.
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Who's most likely to get blown out early? SP #5,maybe? And who follows #5? Realistically, that surely isn't the bulk of the set. It was just my first thought about it. It seems to me that if you're looking for effects on the bullpen the set needs to be broken down by more than just Win or Loss though. If it's Kershaw the next day, or Pedro or Seaver the win isn't telling you much if anything about the bullpen. The information is interesting I just find it too vague to determine anything more by itself. Maybe I'm missing something.
13 relievers for anything but an emergency coverage for a few days seems odd to me too. Although the offense has been doing mostly pretty well. It's only an OF defensive stud that I think the club is shorting itself on currently. That's a role that I think could have changed the outcomes of several close losses we've had. 75 PA of .320/.366/.440/.806 for Heredia in Tacoma so far...5 BB, 5 K, 4 2B, 3B, HR. You tell me if the glove is ready though.
I can say that in maintenance it's better to be able to do things preventative than reactionary. Maybe that's not a good analogue. Just on my mind at the moment. I understand the idea anyway but the effects of reactionary bullpen usage is still in question for me.
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I didn't know where else to put this but in an off-topic comment: the Sporting News thought to ask the players what they think of an electronic zone, and they're saying "no" pretty firmly: http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/robot-umps-clayton-kershaw-corey-kl...