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In 2011, there were four relief pitchers who averaged 96+ (96.1 - 96.9) MPH on their fastballs:  Mark Lowe, Neftali Feliz, Craig Kimbrel, and Brandon League.  This is not a shelf full of tomata cans, you'll pause to discern as you wheel your cart by. 

There were another six relief pitchers in the 97's:  Aroldis Chapman, Daniel Bard, Jordan Walden, Bobby Parnell, Joel Hanrahan, and Henry Rodriguez.  Rodriguez actually averaged 98.0 MPH on a full season.  And we'll file the tomata can observation under "trite" on this one.

What's not trite is this thought:  it is cotton' pickin' TOUGH for a human being, any human being up to and including Ichiro 2004, to turn around a fastball once it is dialed into the high 90's.  We get misled by pitching coaches who talk so much about "no matter how hard you throw, they'll hit it if they know it's coming."  That's not really the case when you're talking about 98, 99, 100 MPH.  They hit it occasionally when it's 99, and those are what you remember.

Here's a Hardball Times article on the subject.  An average relief fastball is 91.5 to 92.0 MPH and "relief pitchers improve by about one run per 9 IP for every gain of 92.5 MPH."  I guess Aroldis Chapman runs a 0+ ERA and a 16.8 strikeout rate for a reason, huh?

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Stephen Pryor on Saturday night averaged 97.8 MPH on his fastball, a full 15 of them in the 8th inning, with no dropoff whatsoever.  His last two pitches were 98 and 97.  In 2011, this 97.8 would have juuuussssst missed nicking Aroldis Blingness for #2 in the majors, behind H-Rod.

True, Pryor's at 96.3 on the year.  But Pryor has also been used in multiple innings, has been hurt at times, and has been steering the ball at times.  The sense you get, watching him, is that he's well capable of sitting top-5 in baseball for velocity.

But the overriding cause for 97 MPH+ overconfidence is ... wait for it ... the slider that he throws.  Wait.

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There is another Mariner that is running top-10 in the majors for velocity, that being Tom Wilhelmsen.  There are 11 guys this season (also) who are sustaining 96 MPH or better, Wilhelmsen being at 96.1 MPH.  But!  Wilhelmsen's velocity is building.  His last 12 appearances, he's 97.0 to 97.5 MPH.

As we all know, Carter Capps throws considerably harder than either Pryor or Capt. Insano.  After two appearances, he's averaging 98.4 MPH, easily THE hardest in baseball if he qualified.  Capps is capable of pitching an inning and never throwing less than 99 MPH.  

By the way, Brandon League has been in the top 10 in baseball for velo, too, as was J.J. Putz before him, along with Brandon Morrow.  Our perceptions are skewed.  It ain't normal to throw like that; 97 MPH seems like less of a big deal to us because (1) we've been seeing it and (2) League and Morrow burned off most of their horsepower before it got to the back wheels.  We happen to have had two of the relievers, recently, who did the least with the most.

Nah.  It's hard blinkin' work to foul up a 98 MPH heater.  You can do it, but it takes imagination.

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You remember Sasaki, Nelson and Rhodes all being top-10 in the AL together, at times even 1-2-3, for strikeout rate?  The M's are on the brink of having the same thing for fastball velocity.  It is easily possible that in 2013, the hardest-throwing relievers in the AL will be Capps, Pryor, Wilhelmsen and three or four other guys.

You can talk all you want about One Size Fits All pitching, how there's a craft involved, how you gotta pitch instead of throw, how we really want this guy to add a changeup, yada yada yada.  But if the Mariners got three guys throwing 99 MPH, you better make sure they don't have the lead in the 6th.

'specially in the seventh game of the series.

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