I find it interesting that many people are talking about his time off as a detriment and wondering how he'll ever be the same pitcher. Does anybody realize how raw his talent is?
The kid pitched in Canada. He didn't have pro competition and the baseball season up there isn't the longest I've ever seen. He's not some guy from Florida who plays 12 months a year.
He was incredibly raw when he went to college, and was just as raw in college. His first full season as a starter is when he became a juggernaut with Ks and control, but he's still green as pistachio ice cream.
And now he's spent two years not throwing a lot.
So what happens when a player without a lot of innings to refine his stuff takes an extended layoff and then comes back with a fresh arm?
Some high school guy named Tom Wilhelmsen had 17 starts in 2003, then was suspended in 2004, and retired in 2005. He threw low 90s then, and is mid-to-high 90s now. The arm wasn't a problem, and the rust was shaken off pretty quickly.
The Paxton we've seen threw 17 innings in 2007, 52 in 08, 78 in 09, and 18 in 2010. I guarantee you he wasn't overworked in high school.
I don't know what Paxton can become, but he's certainly not tapping on the ceiling of all that potential at this point. Everything he's done to get drafted in the (supplemental) first round has been done with very little high-quality instruction or innings pitched. As you said, his control was mostly a matter of piping it down the plate and letting people flail or hit singles.
We're gonna get to teach him how to pitch, and help him clear out the rust.
Once he does that...he could move fast. Really fast. I don't expect it, but he could very well be in the bigs in 2 years. A guy like Morrow was tougher to hit, but raw, untutored Paxton blew him away in control and Ks. Neither guy had a strong history of starting or throwing lots of innings. Morrow was a #5 in a strong pitching draft and has shown the stamina to start. I'd love to see Paxton do the same, without the several-year detour in the pen.
We'll build Paxton up in innings soon enough. The man has two weapons, and they should be all he needs. I'm fascinated to see what he can do. He'll probably be on the Wilhelmsen approach of "extended Spring Training, then Everett/Clinton/however far you can climb" with an eye toward AA and AAA next year.
~G
Q. Wow. Sounds like SSI is advertising Paxton as a top-10-in-the-draft type.
A. ::shrug:: That was the consensus before the nicks, dings, and holdout -- because that specific LHP toolbox is a rare and very kewl deel-ee-oh.
Any left hand pitcher who:
- Throws with that much easy velocity
- Throws overhand
- Puts his curve in the strike zone
- Translates it into 115/20 CTL results
- Doesn't have some giant asterisk attached
... is going first round. Kershaw did, even out of high school.
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Q. Would SSI be visualizing this ML glory for Paxton, had he been drafted by (say) Billy Beane?
A. If James Paxton were joining the Oakland A's today, I'd be saying that Paxton immediately becomes their most-scary minor league pitcher.
Hey, if Paxton were an Oakland A, I might be selling him as having a 50-50 shot at a Jered Weaver, Justin Verlander fast track to their rotation.
Pineda is great but he's no longer a minor leaguer. Robles is a fascinating, quirky prospect ... after them, Paxton becomes the Mariners' glitter arm.
He's a half-season of nice results away from --- > being one of the next big ML-ready aces. That half-season might or might not occur.
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Q. Where would he rank in the M's top 10?
A. Until he pitches, he would be outside the normal system. No ranking. Maybe the newspaper is wet and there will be no combustion here at all; there's that possibility.
Let's say that he kicked the rust off for two months, and then about June-July he started smoking some AA teams...
Then it would be Ackley, Pineda, Franklin, and then him.
I'll trade you three Taijuan Walkers for one James Paxton. It's three, not eight, TW's because of Paxton's time off.
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Cheerio,
Dr D
Comments
"He's a half-season of nice results away from --- > being one of the next big ML-ready aces."
Man, that's it. People in the Paxton template don't need to "season" their game. They move up quickly because of its simplicity. There is no "learning curve."
Catcher puts down one finger or two, He taps the inside of his left thigh, or his right. That's as complicated as they should make it.
Throw it hard and high or roll it off the table.
If Paxton is Gooden and Randy Johnson-lite, he throws in the majors in 2012.
AA by midsummer, '11 (maybe Tacoma by August)
In fact, you're better off moving them up fast. Tell them this worked here. Do it again there. K.I.S.S.
The more time you take, the more you think you have to tinker.
Paxton, evidently (and I'm buying into Doc's analysis) ain't broke. Don't fix him.
moe
What's your take on his arm strength, G? Where it's going to go over the next year?
http://www.perfectgame.org/Articles/View.aspx?article=697
"So far this spring, Paxton is 3-0, 3.86 in four starts, with 37 strikeouts and only 3 walks in 23 innings pitched. Included in that was a March 14 start against Louisiana State where Paxton matched up against the Tigers 2010 ace RHPAnthony Ranaudo. Both pitchers left after six innings in a game that LSU would eventually win 5-3, but not before Paxton struck out 14 against perhaps the top offensive unit in college baseball.
According to a scout who was at the game, Paxton pitched at 92-97 mph on his fastball with serious sinking life (“like he was throwing bricks up there”) from a low ¾’s release point reminiscent of Randy Johnson’s. His breaking ball was a nasty plus/plus 80-83 mph slurve with a big, sweeping break.
“Paxton was just an animal,” the scout related. “He’s a big, big kid and very physical on the mound. He was throwing just power, power stuff up there for six innings. I saw Matthew Purke (the top ranked HS prospect, also a LHP) earlier in the year and Kyle Gibson (the Missouri RHP, a projected top 10 pick) at the top of his game earlier in the week and neither compared to Paxton as far as raw stuff is concerned.”
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You're favorite word for him Doc - physical. ;) Now, the HS guys obviously had a chance to grow into better stuff...but Paxton was 20 at the time, no old soul himself. He's only 22 NOW. He's a year and a half older than Purke, but with only a handful more innings. Purke will have thrown more innings than Paxton did in college by next month, most likely - and he's a sophomore.
And Purke threw more in HS than Paxton.
Paxtons' arm is the Real Deal. I hope he can hold up (had a minor back issue in his sophomore year in college) but I don't doubt the arm at all. I think he's back to his college totals with that nasty, heavy ball.
I look forward to seeing it.
~G
cpoints