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Toronto is +1.5 ahead of the James Shields-led, Wil Myers-less Royals and Masahiro Tanaka-less Yankee$, and +2.0 on our heroes.  

Bob Dutton with a light rundown of the Mariners' SP intentions for the upcoming week.  Thusly:

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You might guess that you --- > crack yourself in the post-orbital bar, using a mailed fist, by --- > "shuffling" a rotation that calls your #6 SP into the issue.  In Strat-O-Matic this would probably be true, in most situations.  You gain a dime's worth of matchup value, but lose a dollar's worth of WAR by subbing in your #6.

However:

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1)  In the real world, it's about looking your opponent in the eye.  The last Mariners manager to do this, that Dr. D remembers, was Lou Piniella -- who would delay Randy Johnson to start big series against division rivals, the Yankee$, or Red Sox.

McClendon has the Mariners aiming shots at the man region, has them biting, and eye-gouging.  True, they have several batters who are 160 lbs. in the heavyweight division.  But it beats a collapsed chest and 17 straight losses.

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2) Felix will begin the series against the WC leaders.  The idea is to set a tone and then win the next two also.

Or, of course, to give yourself the best chance of two wins.  That's the kinda built-for-October team we got, kiddies.  Two wins, worst case analysis!

;- )

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3) There are billions of factors that are impossible to measure ... Taijuan's development, the hitter-SP matchups, the extra day of rest and how it affects Kuma long-term, and a thousand other things.

A.  What is the appropriate tool for WEIGHING these factors, if you can't capture them all?

B.  The intuition of an expert who is working in a data-rich environment.

Saying it another way:  Dr. D is on his anti-dogma soapbox again.  As he has been, since the first sentence.  :- )

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4) In this case, the #6 SP is not Jeremy Bonderman, or any other garden-variety #6 SP.  The extra SP, this time, is:

• Taijuan Walker, or
• Erasmo "10K last time out" Ramirez, or
• Spur of the moment, if the bullpen is lightly used by Saturday, "Johnny Bullpen"
• The M's having a choice of three good options here

"Johnny Bullpen" is only #3 in the heirarchy because of --- > who the first two pitchers are.  If you just joined us, this is an occasional PLAYOFF strategy, in the same sense that "using your closer for 3 IP" is an occasional playoff strategy.

Tom Wilhelmsen for 60-70 pitches, followed by this bullpen ESPECIALLY BRANDON MAURER 2 IP, is possibly the best SP in the league.

Well, y'know.

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4a)  How do you like the fact that ALL teams use 5 starters?   Wouldn't some teams be better off using 4 and 6 starters?

This "uniformity of motive" problem is embarrassing for a cash-strapped SETI, in explaining why The Great Silence, Fermi's Paradox, and no Von Neumann probes yet, but it's even worse for MLB.   Why doesn't one society break convention, if the convention is "make sure Earth receives no beacon light or radio waves" or "Use the correct amount of starting pitchers"?

Well, you might go 25 years with everybody obeying convention.  But one of these days, somebody is going to Question Authority, and they'll be glad they did.

.......

Earl used to use 4 starters, and he emphasized that "if you want to get off to a hot start, you can go with 3 starters."  Think about it.

This particular team would probably be better off, right now, with 6 starters for a month or more.  Using the Cheney Carousel generously.  And since the SP's would therefore be sharper, and pitch longer, this might allow a bench that did not consist of Endy Chavez and a never-used backup catcher.

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5) Which factors seem the most important to SSI?

• Teaching the kids to look other teams in the eye (one of a manager's 5-6 most important functions)
• Extra rest for Felix and Kuma (used to be, teams would SKIP a start now and then)

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So, as "Death" would say:  I don't like the move.  I love it.  

BABVA,

Dr D