Doc,
I think they could do it....and live to tell about it. But the key would be whether they contended right away. You wou have to be a deep-into-the-playoffs team in Season One.
You couldn't just play one round and go home. Even a Divisional Loss wouldn't be enough. Get to game 7 in the LCS...and then the fans would be in total buy in mode.
But you couldn't do that with the current make up. When Pineda become truly become "The Carnage" and you have a Bedard and another arm...well then you could ship Felix in a deal that gets a #3 and a Montero and a TTO and a very nice prospect arm.
But you have to win tomorrow. Not next week. And 10 years of 30 taters per from Montero helps people forget.
This Mariner team is not quite there, though. I' not advocating such a move, mind you...but you could sell it.
If you win now, it would, as they say, "play in Poughkeepsie."
Q. Could the Mariners 'win' a Felix Hernandez trade?
A. Easily. They could win a Felix trade, huge. In terms of WAR over the next 5 years.
That used to be my favorite way to win a weak Roto league... take some 1st-round hero and deal him for a player who was worth 85% as much, plus two other starting players.
Early in 1997, if I recall correctly, I traded the 1-1 pick Ken Griffey Jr. for Jim Edmonds / Manny Ramirez / somebody, plus Jeff Fassero (an unknown in the AL, I think), plus some other MOTO hitter.
Half the league mutinied and the other half the league wondered, "what's the problem? ParvoDog is getting JUNIOR!"
..............
In real baseball, the names are not quite so crass ... but supposing that the Yankees deal:
- Phil Hughes, 40 runs above RLP compared to Felix' 60
- Jesus Montero, whose six-year projection is 30-40-50-50-50-50
- Nick Swisher, 40 more runs and a lefty* TTO hitter
- Dellin Betances, who is kinda like James Paxton
The key to a Felix deal would be that you'd have to get a very good young ML starting pitcher, which you of course could.
Then you could stack extra parts on top of the 80%-of-Felix and easily "win" the deal.
.............
If you don't like Phil Hughes, you could make the Yankees go get some young ace you did like. Three-way.
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Q. Why would the other team do that?
A. It could win the deal, too. B'lee Dat.
Stars & Scrubs mechanics have the Yankees and Red Sox trying to cram WAR into the very top of their roster, because they can replace the lesser players at will.
Oh yeah, the Mariners could find a huge Win-Win with a mega-rich team.
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Q. They wouldn't do it because they like to sell Felix jerseys?
A. I dunno if that's it.
I don't get the idea that Felix is beloved in Seattle, not the way that Ichiro is.
I could be wrong. But it doesn't seem to me that Soccer Mom loves Felix, in the way that she loved Edgar, Jamie Moyer, the Bone, much less Junior and ARod.
Doubt that the fan loyalty is as much of an issue with Felix as some think. .... of course, it's a factor. The 10-year-olds do need a baseball card to collect. But...
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Q. Maybe the $/WAR wouldn't work out?
A. Sure it would. Jesus Montero's rookie year, he would out-net Felix all by himself.
Remember? One Adam Jones, that you're underpaying, is more valuable than any superstar in baseball who's making a fair salary ... >:-]
The Mariners could get five Adam Joneses for Felix. Tom Tango sketches out the $/WAR on a Felix trade, the accountants would vaporlock and expire right on the spot. You could probably $/WAR one hundred million on such a deal. Maybe two hundred million.
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Q. So what's the issue?
A. The issue is that Felix is a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Felix is the Tom Seaver, the Roger Clemens of his generation.
When the Mariners traded Randy Johnson in 1998, they got a huge return -- a great young starter, a shortstop who later challenged for the MVP, and a third player who contributed. And that was just for two months of the Unit...
There was no return you could get, that would make up for the hole in the generation's heart. We missed out on ten years of a baseball legend: Randy Johnson.
Randy Johnson transcended baseball. His presence went far, far beyond WAR. His presence attended to the issue of whether we are addicted to sports or not.
........
In the 1960's, the Sonics traded Lenny Wilkens, got a nice return IIRC, and no basketball fan of that generation ever forgave them for it...
.........
You could make the ballclub better by trading Felix. Both short-term and long-term.
But some things transcend baseball. You need to keep your first-ballot HOF'ers.
Even the 116 wins didn't make up for the Big Unit trade. Nothing could have; I'll be bitter about missing Johnson's 15-K overmatches until the day I die. :- ) That perfect game should have been thrown for Seattle fans.
You could trade Felix and get better, but you can't. Sports are for fun. When they stop being fun, they'll have lost their usefulness.
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Cheerio,
Dr D
Comments
But it took a 116-win season ...
Like you say, if you deal the heroes, you better show the fans the money, and quickly...
Dealing the Big Unit, that will always be a tragedy for me.
That's a heck of a haul. Yeah, I'd do it, but only because Montero has a great chance of being a superstar. The RJ trade didn't offer that prospect. neither did the Griffey trade.
I remember when the Milwaulkee Bucks traded Jabbar for 3 real good players. That was like the RJ trade. Not enough. Since Felix doesn't represent great moments the way RJ and Alcindor did, you could get away with it. But Montero makes the risk worth it.
I HATE hurrying on a note...then noticing all my typos later. I always feel like an idiot! Sorry all!
In today's Ask BA, Jim Callis was going through the candidates for an 80 grade tool in the majors and minors - listing several Mariners, including Felix for his slider.....
"Mariners second baseman Dustin Ackley may be the best pure hitter in the minors, and Red Sox shortstop Jose Iglesias could be the best defensive infielder, but I'd be reluctant to hang an 80 on either.
At the major league level, Ichiro, Joe Mauer and Albert Pujols are all 80 hitters. Josh Hamilton, Pujols and Mike Stanton have 80 power. Michael Bourn has 80 speed. Franklin Gutierrez, Yadier Molina and Ryan Zimmerman are 80 defenders. Adrian Beltre and Ichiro have 80 arms. On the mound, Justin Verlander owns an 80 fastball, Felix Hernandez throws an 80 slider and Tim Lincecum confounds hitters with an 80 changeup."
Good post Doc.
I think the reason I can be a little more cold and calculating with Felix is he isn't one of those Randy/Ichiro type players for me.. I want to win and would be willing to lose Felix if a trade would increase our shot at a dominant team.
Why is it that Felix doens't feel as thrilling as RJ anymore? When he first came up, I remember everyone on the web giggling like schoolchildren with every start. Why are we unimpressed with, essentially, Roger Clemens on our team?
Felix's time will come. We're not on the edge of our seat because the rest of the baseball world is pretty indifferent. Felix is hurt by the fact that he plays in the Northwest and isn't a great public speaker. He's the same age as Justin Smoak and Michael Saunders, and already has 1000+ MLB K's. If he keeps this up for 2-3 years, people will start to see him on a historic level.
Fans think they love the longball, but it's really SP's who generate the biggest buzz. Strasburg, Red Sox era Pedro, to a certain degree Halladay.... a start by your ace SP is a big event. Fans can roar every time there's two strikes on a hitter, the SP is the center of attention for half the game. Position players only create major excitement AFTER they've done something; there's no buildup and it's unlikely they do anything for the entire rest of the game after that one big moment. SP's command the most attention and Felix is the best young SP in the game. We might not care now, but we will soon....
I love Felix and would not be happy to see him be traded, especially to the yankees! Plus, Montero's not a catcher. Where's he going to play and would he be considered such a good player as a full-time dh? Let's not forget that we have Smoak at 1b. Montero's also a righty and wouldn't alot of his power be hurt by Safeco? I also would want MAJOR league players for Felix, not prospects. Prospects flame out all the time. I'd want Cano, Hughes, Montero, and a prospect or two, even then I'd still be pissed we traded Felix!
I also think you are underestimating the view of the casual fan. I think they really love Felix and also know he's our best player with Ichicho getting old. Look at the M's commercials, Felix's have been the fave's for the last few years. The backlash would be very, very bad, and if there's anything this team hates, it's bad publicity!!
Felix = Seaver is right on.
If you take both at this stage of their careers (172 starts for Felix/175 for Seaver) and look at the previous two years, you get an interesting comparison.
Felix had thrown 488 innings in 68 starts, struck out 449 batters, allowed 7.5 and 7.0 Hits/9inn in the two previous seasons, had ERA+ of 172 & 174 and had led the league in ERA once and Wins once.
Seaver had thrown 577 innings (because more innings were expected from Big Hoss starters...but I'm willing to bet Felix was as much above the league average as Seaver) in 71 starts (plus one relief appearance). He struck out 572 batters and he had allowed 7.1 and 6.6 Hits/9inn, had ERA+ of 143 and 194 , and led the league in ERA twice.
Felix will be 25 years old when the next season begins, Seaver was 27.
Seaver K'ed abou 1/2 of a batter more each game....but their numbers are strikingly similar. Suppose I should do it for Clemens, too. But I see Clemens as much more of a publicly regarded phenom in Season 1 and 2 than Seaver and Felix were.
But Felix=Seaver, no doubt about it. Interestingly, both guys were way dominant, but not in the Ryan/Randy/Koufax way wehre you EXPECTED them to strike out 15.
Night in and night out they strike out 8-10 guys, and EVERYBODY else, they just get out. And you never expect a bad start. In that regard they are much more Maddux than Randy or Ryan.
After Willie Mays, Tom Terrific was my favorite baseball player from '69-'73.
Ergo: I'm learning to LOVE Felix. Definate man crush here.
I'm not sure, but hes just not as dominant. Hes good at striking guys out, he has good command, and hes durable, hes good at getting ground balls. He doesn't have an extremely good skill like Randy or Lee. Or two, like prime-Pedro.
Did you stick with Tom Terrific after he joined the Big Red Machine? :- )
.........
Let's not forget context, too, Moe ... 1906 pitchers could run 1+ ERA's because of the environment... great as Seaver was, he didn't have to pitch against roids and DH's...
...........
From age 22 to 32, Seaver averaged a good 140-145 ERA+ and had three years that were almost Koufax-class... after age 33, Seaver piled on some bulk career numbers, but early on he was the Pedro of his day...
Felix is at 133 ERA+ lifetime, but the last two years has been 170+ and he is apparently establishing a level of performance that would exceed even Seaver's.... but, if those two 170 years only cancel against Seaver's three peak years, Seaver's still ahead...
..........
As you note, Seaver was a bit more of a K pitcher, whereas Felix' groundball tendencies make him better at HR prevention, after you adjust for context...
Up to this point in their careers, Seaver is for choice, but Felix looks poised to gearshift past him over the next few years...
Ed Kranepool, Donn Clendenon, Swoboda dives and saves the game, Agee pulls a Guti and saves another, Cleon rips another rope, Tug McGraw, Buddy Harrelson, Al "The Babe" Weis, Jerry Grote, Seaver and Koosman and pray for rain......
Man...I cut my teeth on the '69 Miracle Mets. And then Willie came 3 years later! Perfect! Except all too often I remember Willie as a aged, shadow of the (perhaps) greatest player ever hobbling and almost embarrased in the '73 Series. Bad, that.
Dude - Randy, Lee and Pedro weren't Randy, Lee and Pedro at 23 and 24 either. Pedro put up his first dominant season when he was 25 (ERA+ 219). In his 23 and 24 year old seasons, he was at 123 and 117 ERA+.
Lee has never even had a season with an ERA+ over 170 like Felix has done the last two.
Randy Johnson didn't put up an ERA+ over 170 until he was 31 years old. Felix has two such seasons under his belt by 24.
People tend to forget how young Felix is. He's still developing and is already this good. He's literally one step away - if his control of his FB jells like Lee's did or his slider like Randy's did or his change like Pedro's did or his curve like Bedard's did - from being inhuman. The guy has four plus pitches right now. If one of them goes into "unhittable" territory, look out!
If he simply starts throwing his strike two fastball in order to miss bats, instead of hit them.
Take the batters up the ladder, rather than pounding them at the knees.
Maybe. Pitchers tend to peak early and fall off later unlike hitters. Some guys do improve though as you've mentioned, and lot of those guys are HOFs. Pitchers develop in plateou's though, its usually not an age-curve issue like with hitters.
Randy improved his command drastically with a mechanical change and already had a dominant slider. I suppose Felix could whip out that slider of his himself and start throwing it 40+% of the time like Randy, but it seems unlikely.
The Cliff Lee pattern to dominance . He develops otherwordly command and adds a cutter or something. Doesn't seem very likely either though.
I think Felix needs to increase his offspeed-usage. On whiff% basis, he has one of the best sliders and curveballs in baseball, and one of the better changeups as well.
Unless he changes his pitching patter, some regression seems more likely with Felix. His skillset hasn't changed dramatically over the years (the lack of HRs is the biggest improvement hinting to better fastball command). He started running sub 3 ERAs the second Z brought in GGs all around the field. Barring a plateou-jump of course.
Why are you arguing that Lee is more dominant than Felix? There is not one statistical or emotional reason to claim Lee is more dominant than Felix...he's got better command of his fastball, but despite that, it's a more hittable fastball when he misses with it and he has no dominant secondary pitch (good cutter, good change...neither dominant).
Felix keeps the ball in the yard at least as well. He fans more per inning. He's had significantly more impressive ERA and his DIPS line is typically better. What makes Lee more dominant in your mind?
I don't consider Lee of the RJ/Pedro/Santana class, but I do think hes a little better than Felix. Last three seasons his peripherals are better, FIP and tERA specifically.
Felix has had a relatively large discrepency between RA and ER the last two year as well as an advantage in defense and park.
Even if Lee is incrementally better than Felix (not sure I buy it, but it's a reasonable thing to argue)...he certainly doesn't come across to me as a remarkably more exciting show...he's not more dominant...he's just a hair better at best, if not a push. And...yet...people think Lee is tough to lose but would shrug if we got a nice haul for Felix.
Personally...I am still feeling the same giddy joy for Felix starts that I felt for RJ.
I guess I can't really explain it... Felix is exciting, but its not on an RJ level for me.
Lee was exciting too, but I was fine trading him when we did because it was the best thing for the team.
I just want to see the Ms win.. I would trade Ichiro or RJ if it would make us a dominant team and those two of my favorite players all-time.
But we traded Griffey and RJ and we didn't win a title. We let A-Rod go / he chose somewhere else for twice as much money but his funds weren't enough. We kept Edgar but couldn't get over the hump.
I love those teams, though. 95 always, but also the 2000-2003 teams that I thought had a real shot at a title. No, we didn't win, but we were a good team. This idea of chasing a perfect team and trading all-world players that you are not being forced to trade in order to try to build a better widget is interesting, but I wouldn't really enjoy it.
If we pulled off a Florida Marlins team assembly, won a title, and then dismantled it into the ground, would that be satisfying? Is the title alone worth it, even if you don't know or care for the names on the back of the jersey? Is just wearing the laundry enough to make it Your Team and so the guys in that uniform just need to WAR and VORP and RC/27 their way to victory?
I don't know that a mercenary team is enough for me. I want to win something too, but I want to build something lasting, the memories of that journey.
I grew up as a Broncos fan, and if you'd taken away the last 2 years of Elway's career where he finally won titles, it would not have been nearly as satisfying...but I would have preferred to lose the last 2 years instead of the first 16. The Broncos didn't win the year of The Drive, but like the 5 game Yankees series of 95 the feeling of leaving everything on the field in a non-championship game is still worth something. The season-long chase is still worth something.
I dunno - there's just something to be said for the journey, I guess, especially in a 162 game regular season. And I like having good, well-liked company along the way instead of faceless acquaintances.
But I don't like taking long walks in uncomfortable shoes either, no matter how awesome or shiny they might be. I think we just have different ways of rooting for the Mariners to do great things.
~G
I want to see these guys stay too, but with the the way FA is setup you need to identify your core early and lock 'em up for cheap.
I was screaming for the Ms to lock Felix up for 10 years back before arbitration. You'd get him cheaper and you'd get him for more years. He was pitcher, but he was a rare one with great mechanics, great stuff, projectability, etc. Lock him up. The Ms waited too long. You could have literally handed him a 10 year $60mil deal and he probably would have taken it after his rookie year.
The reality is you've got four years left now and the last three hes a $20mil player. He's still a bargain, but less so in the last 3 years of the deal, meaining if you can get a ranson for him I think thats what you need to do.
In hindsight the Ms should have re-signed RJ IMO (alhtough the trade worked well too) and the Griffey trade ended up working great. Signing Griffey long-term would have been a disaster. The Ms might have benefitted from traded A-Rod earlier on, depending on the return. He wasn't signing long-term anyways with Boras as his agent.
http://espn.go.com/video/clip?id=7705635&categoryid=2378529
Nothing earth shattering but I love how comfortable he seems to be. He's comfortable with the interview, he's comfortable with the direction of the team, and comfortable with the idea of being the best pitcher in the game while playing in Seattle for a very long time.
Loving this offseason.
Rather than just hearing a non-commital quote, seeing his obvious desire to BE here, to right the ship and give back to Seattle the winner than they want (and that he wants)...
That was fun. It's nice that the Mariners themselves seem stoked about their future. Seems like Jack's Plan isn't just something for the fans to buy into. The players believe as well.
Still don't think this is our year, but at least the Mariners will be fun again from here on out.
Mariners 2012 - the joy is back. Wins coming.
~G
I am a Thirty year old man, but that video makes me giggle like a little girl? :) :) :)
Hand Felix a lifetime deal right now and call it done! :)
He wants to be a Seattle icon. Not just some icon somewhere, but our Icon here. Seems to me like he wants Randy Johnson to be the second-best pitcher to suit up in teal and wants to bring Seattle its first World Series title.
In football terms, he would settle for being Dan Marino, is aiming to be John Elway, and is far less interested in being Bret Favre (though Bret did win with his main team).
Randy Johnson's lore is a bit weird pitching for two franchises like he did. Roger Clemens feels like a man without home even though he won a bunch of titles in NY.
If you were writing your own legacy, I would think you'd want it to read, "Savior of a franchise, greatest player in team history, winner of first title in town in 40 years and first team championship ever, legend."
If Felix outpitches Lincecum in Game 7 of a World Series to take the title for the Mariners, he's more the Franchise than Junior or Randy or Edgar.
He brings home the title? He's the hero forever. In New York? Transplants never get their due. Who in Miami even remembers the mercenaries that won their title?
I hope Felix gets his legend here. I'd love to see him fronting our rotation - especially THIS rotation that we're building now - for a long time to come.
And I want that trophy. That starts with getting Felix his wins by giving him some offense. Looking forward to that this year for sure - I want 20 wins next to the King's name. That it hasn't happened yet is an indictment of the team around him, and we've almost cleared that slate.
Hurry up, Opening Day!
~G
Gotta love it. Make it so, Number One.
Felix has really opened some eyes this spring with his 13 strikeouts in 13 innings, and his nonexistent run and walk rates. This is just the kind of Spring Felix needed to have to silence the naysayers, and cement his spot in the rotation.
I don't know what they are feeding him down in Valencia, but I hope Montero, Snow, and Pegeuro got some when they were down there.