Q.  And what would be Level 102?

A.  Bringing such a player to Arizona for 30 days, and observing as he swings at baseballs.

.

Q.  You're scanning for what?

A.  Something very simple. 

Probability Match 98% occurs after you determine that --- > this guy can (1) apply the exact same bat control he always has, while (2) hitting the ball a lot harder.

Maybe he can.  Check it out.  We'll let you know at final cutdown.

.

Q.  Is there such a thing as a late bloomer in baseball?

A.  Funny how a certain phrasing of a question can make the truth obvious, isn't it?

Late bloomers are much more frequent, in baseball history, than people realize.  Nobody in Seattle should have failed to learn the lesson of Raul Ibanez.

Age-arc plots are a guideline, and nothing even close to an absolute.  What is it, maybe 70%, of ballplayers follow a traditional age-arc.  MLB orgs do, and must, scout each player freshly every year.

.

Q.  Ya, but you can't bet against age-arcs, right?  That would be like betting on every 87-mph pitcher to become the next Jamie Moyer?  That's a fool's errand.

A.  Right, you can't use Jamie Moyer to justify going an extra 4 months with every Luke French and Ryan Rowland-Smith.  That's poor pattern recognition.

But there is a Proceed To Level 102 Scan that Ah-nold goes to.  

If you've got an 87-mph lefty and there is something out of alignment in the statistics, as James would put it, then you might find a specific reason that the 87-mph lefty is worth your time.

100 guys had nice years last year.  The question is, which ones showed an interesting reason for the results.

Rodriguez is one of those guys whose performance established a super-clear reason for the result.

.

Q.  What would be out of alignment in Rodriguez' statistics?

A.  It's way cool that Rodriguez' bat control stats -- EYE, CT%, etc -- held rock-steady, at the same time that he started hitting the ball wayyyyyyyy harder.

Anybody, almost anybody, can dial it up and hit the ball harder.  But the CT% goes down, of course.

If you were talking about a guy who hit for more power, while striking out more, SSI wouldn't give a second glance.  But in this case, all [other] levers on the EQ stayed rock-steady at 7, while the power went from 2 to 7.

That's progress.   Proceed to Level 102 Scan.

.

Part 2

.