Nick Hill (pictured at left) is catching the attention of Mariner scouts after a strong performance at class AA West Tennessee in 2009 and a still-impressive showing in the Arizona Fall League.  A simple By the Numbers description of his career to date:

After dominating Short Season Everett in 2007 (how do 45 Ks and 9 walks in 35 innings sound to you?  How about no home runs and only 24 hits in those 18 relief appearances?), he moved on to high A High Desert in 2008.  There he posted a still-respectable K/BB but had trouble getting sink on the ball and saw his HR rate climb to 10 blasts in 94.1 IP and his hit rate become intolerably high.  Even before 2009,  alert Mariner fans in the scouting world were prepared to dismiss that as a fluke of circumstance (we have GOT to move our high A team...that place is death).

But in 2009, despite missing a month to fulfill his remaining obligations with West Point and graduate from their pro-athlete service program, Hill souped up his mediocre 76/39 K/BB and his dangerously high HR rate plummeted.  In 36 apearances (9 of them starts) he posted a a 3.10 ERA, fanned 100 men and walked just 24 while allowing 5 HRs and 84 hits playing for a team not known for stellar defense.

So how does a kid with what scouts describe as an "average at best" fastball and without a single pitch that scouts would rave about as elite in the Mariner system run a 4 K/BB, a 9+ K rate and a HR rate through the floor?  Here's a little description of what he throws:

His best pitch is a very well located sinking fastball thrown at 86-91 mph with good late sinking action.  On top of that he is mastering a change-up and possesses a "show me" slider that's very lateral and has absolutely no downward break on it.  He has great arm action, however, and, so say the scouts, he is very deceptive with a dlivery that's very whippy and quick and full of arms and legs.  The photo above demonstrates how open his body is on the backstroke with the ball held high and behind his head.  It also, unfortunately, is a perfect example photo of how NOT to avoid the inverted W and the high back elbow at the same time.

We note with interest that Hill, in a recent Seattle Times blog piece, is quoted as saying of his off-month serving out the remainder of his Army obligations: "I think it helped me.  It gave me a month off in the middle of the year, and really livened up my arm." That's probably a bad sign.

But we know from experience that guys with poor mechanics like this tend to be hard to hit if their stuff moves enough, which Hill's fastball does, and if they can throw a good secondary pitch with great arm action, which again, Nick Hill does (a 78 mph change-up is the perfect 12 mph separation you want and he sells it very well).  What you have here is a left handed version of Doug Fister but with more sink on his fastball and less consistent mechanics (meaning less perfect command).

The good news is, the Mariners are very quick to accurately diagnose when bad mechanics will likely prevent a pitcher from having the stamina he'd need to start full time, and though he's gotten a few looks in the minors, the Ms see him as a left handed set-up man at this point.  It's conceiveable that he could pitch 10 years in the bigs and never have his elbow explode like a cheap party favor assuming a relatively light workload (less than 80 innings per year would be ideal), and Hill is already likely polished enough to hold his own in the big leagues facing tough lefties.  His stuff doesn't actually profile well to be the prototypical LOOGY.  He has no equalizer breaking pitch, nor does he have a power fastball he can sneak by the power lefties.  However, with good sink on the ball and a very high minor league GB/FB rate, he can get lefties and righties out consistently well as long as his command is sharp.

One thing you know Zduriencik is weighing heavily, given his track record - you are not going to find a sharper and more solid individual than a West Point graduate who received high marks from his professors in battlefield engineering and management.  They're telling us that had Hill not been so darned good at baseball, he would have made a fine officer in the Army - perhaps a command level officer with his brilliance in the classroom.  The kid is BOUND to be baseball smart, ethical, determined and strong-willed.  Don't let the media convince you otherwise - our military is still filled with the best people and the brightest minds you will ever want to meet and Hill is no exception.  This probably helps to explain how he mastered the art of pitchability so quickly and why Zduriencik and his scouts are so high on a guy who has, at best, MLB average stuff and above average deception.

I would bet very high on Hill's chances of breaking camp as the Mariners lefty set-up man...filling a major hole in our current roster.