That sort of honesty and openness is refreshing after reading Boras's stretching of the truth and Zduriencik's nonstatements.

There has to be some added value for a guy who is playing for his dream club, rather than a place he really doesn't like.  Cool.  I hope Mr. Iwakuma does well here.

If we sign Iwakuma, then IMO we trade some arms for a bat.
Felix + Pineda + Iwakuma +Hultzen is a tremendous top 4 for the next 3 seasons.
Paxton + Walker + Campos are not all needed to fill one spot (or two, if you figure Felix is leaving in 3 years).  One of them will go.
Walker can headline a deal for most any bat. 
~G

Iwakuma is a top 10 NPB pitcher, but stylewise one of the safest bets to transition over and maintain his success. Hes as safe a bet as Kuroda was.
The only question is health (not a safe pitcher) and how 4 days rest and a longer schedule will affect his sharpness.
NPB transitioned to the MLB ball in 2012 and we saw guys like Aoki and Nakajima implode. It should give us a slightly better idea of how guys will translate.

Vargas or Beaven as a #5 is a heck of a rotation.  But I'm not sure I trade both Walker and Paxton.  Heck, I know I don't.  What is a Vargas/Campos/League package worth? 
Paxton will pitch in Seattle this year, I think.  He K's 12 guys per 9-innings.  Yikes.
Walker?  Way good. 
I might include one in a package.  But I better get a terrific bat.
moe

Would that be a reasonable price for Zimmerman? The Nats do have Rendon.

Hey Doc!
I wrote about the perceived list of players for Fielder extensively over at Mariner Central on Monday (you can click on that to see analysis of Fielder and the Cubs, Rangers, Blue Jays, and Orioles) ...
http://www.marinercentral.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=6648&view=findpo...
Here is the essence of what I wrote regarding Fielder and the Nationals ...
Now we know that Boras did in fact meet with the Nationals (and reportedly several other clubs) recently -- beyond that, all we have is writers spinning yards based on atomically thin info.  
Right down there with the Mariners, the Nationals had one of the worst offenses in all of baseball last year ...
Batting Average .242 (27th overall in MLB)624 Runs (24th overall in MLB)On Base Percentage .309 (25th overall in MLB)Slugging Percentage .383 (22nd in MLB)
The Nationals had a 2011 team payroll that was fairly low overall ($57,892,929), so they appear to be at a point where they could accommodate a Prince Fielder. Still, you've got to wonder IF the Nationals would actually go there. They went down this same route last year with Scott Boras and Jayson Werth. They are committed to him for the next 6 seasons at a grand total of $112 million ... and didn't exactly get a lot of bang for their buck last year. In addition, the Nationals have $26 million tied up in Ryan Zimmerman over the next 2 seasons -- he's going to be looking for a huge payday after the 2013 Season when he becomes a free agent (he'll only be 28 at that point). If the Nationals did sign Fielder, they'd also have to figure out what they would do about Adam LaRoche. Here's his contract status ...
Adam LaRoche ...
2012 ... $8 million2013 ... $10 million w/a $1 million team buyout.
The Nationals have basically a Chone Figgins situation on their hands with LaRoche. He underwent season ending surgery shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum and partially torn rotator cuff back on June 15th. So as far as trade value's concerned -- for a 32 year old -- he's got none. While the Nationals clearly would be looking at a replacement for LaRoche, the question they've got to ask themselves (just like the Mariners) is, "Do we really want to flush $9 million down the toilet and just cut him loose?" That's not going to happen, so they're probably stuck with him this season and will buy out his contract in 2013. In that sense, they would probably look at Fielder as his replacement and figure they'd be sending money down the septic system in terms of LaRoche and his contract -- one way or the other.
Why WOULD the Nationals be looking to sign Fielder? 
The Nationals aren't looking at Fielder purely through statistical lenses --- they're looking at him in terms of an overall business investment and seeing an opportunity to win now. Consider this -- both the Cardinals and Brewers will be significantly weakened due to attrition (Cardinals losing Pujols and the Brewers losing Fielder -- their GM Doug Melvin has already pretty much publicly come out and said goodbye). While they might have a hard time winning the NL East ... they might thinking they have a better shot at the NL Wild Card. And one thing that's been shown over time ... winning teams draw fans and make more money. Period. The Mariners experienced a significant attendance increase following the '95 Season ... same thing for the Angels after winning the World Series in 2002 (attendance went up over 700,000 the next year) ... the Milwaukee Brewers gained over 1 million more fans between 2004 (went 67-94 that year) and 2011. They went out and made the deal for Gio Gonzalez, presumably with the belief that they believe that coupled with what they've got coming up (Strasburg coming back, Harper coming up, etc.) that they can win sooner than later.
But that's only part of the picture. As Boras said (ugh! I hate admitting he's right) bringing in a Prince Fielder can mean more to a team in terms of advertising dollars, merchandise sales, and higher TV ratings. Bottom line, Fielder is a Superstar Player and as such, he is the type of guy that a team can market.
Let me put it to you this way. If you're a 14 year old guy and you're looking at buying a jersey ... are you more likely to buy a Adam LaRoche jersey or a Prince Fielder one? Hard choice. So Fielder can help a team sell merchandise like that ... he can make money in terms of billboard and TV advertisements by his sheer name recognition alone ... and he's someone that an organization can try to sell to their fanbase.
Nationals games are broadcast through MASM (Mid-Atlantic Sports Network) and frankly, their deal right now is pretty pathetic. When the Nationals moved to Washington, D.C. from Montreal, Orioles owner Peter Angelos was not a happy camper. So, in order to pacify him and allow the Nationals to move in to his territory, the Orioles were given a 90% stake in MASM ... the Nationals were given 10%. That ownership stake increases by 1% every year to a maximum of 33% (should be around 2035).
Right now, the Nationals have a 13% stake in the network and receive only about $29 million in TV revenues annually.
To give you a comparison, the Mariners earned $64 million from their deal with Fox in 2008 ... the Rangers deal pays them between somewhere in the $75-80 million a year range ... and the Angels deal could net them up to $150 million a year!
Right now, per their agreement with MASM, the Nationals are at a reset point (after 5 years) where they can look to renegotiate their deal with the Orioles and MASM over rights fees. The Nationals are driving hard for a better overall deal from MASM ... and you'd like to think they'd like a bigger stake in MASM. At the heart of it, this is a battle for the Washington-Baltimore media market -- a popularity contest. And if the Nationals believe there is an opportunity to win now ... gain more popularity among the region ... and thus gain more power and overall revenue then they'll do it.
But the bottom line, several million dollar question is -- do the Nationals really and honestly want $65-70 million tied up in only 3 players (Werth, Zimmerman, and Fielder)? 
Word is that the Nationals are a bit leery about going to the prom once again with Scott Boras after getting punch spilled in their laps with Jayson Werth last year.  I absolutely had to pick Prince's most likely landing spot outside of Seattle ... at this point I'd say it's the Nationals. But as I say that, I remain highly, highly skeptical the Nationals ARE true players for Fielder ... and Mike Zuckerman, who follows the Nationals and writes for them on a day to day basis, is as well for all the reasons listed above ...
http://www.natsinsider.com/2012/01/addressing-fielder-rumors.html
As far as Prince is concerned at this point, Scott Boras is reminding me a whole lot of that guy who, just days before the Prom, is running around in a panicked frenzy -- chasing after all the prettiest girls out there ... and being told each and every time, "Sorry, I'm going with someone else." Meanwhile, Zduriencik is sitting back watching this fiasco from afar with a knowing smile on his face ... making all the necessary preparations for the inevitable knock at the door.
MA
 

Doubting Thomas Raises a Skeptical Finger …
Hey Doc!
I wrote about the perceived list of players for Fielder extensively over at Mariner Central on Monday (you can click on that to see analysis of Fielder and the Cubs, Rangers, Blue Jays, and Orioles) ...
http://www.marinercentral.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=6648&view=findpo...
Here is the essence of what I wrote regarding Fielder and the Nationals ...
Now we know that Boras did in fact meet with the Nationals (and reportedly several other clubs) recently -- beyond that, all we have is writers spinning yards based on atomically thin info.  
Right down there with the Mariners, the Nationals had one of the worst offenses in all of baseball last year ...
Batting Average .242 (27th overall in MLB)624 Runs (24th overall in MLB)On Base Percentage .309 (25th overall in MLB)Slugging Percentage .383 (22nd in MLB)
The Nationals had a 2011 team payroll that was fairly low overall ($57,892,929), so they appear to be at a point where they could accommodate a Prince Fielder. Still, you've got to wonder IF the Nationals would actually go there. They went down this same route last year with Scott Boras and Jayson Werth. They are committed to him for the next 6 seasons at a grand total of $112 million ... and didn't exactly get a lot of bang for their buck last year. In addition, the Nationals have $26 million tied up in Ryan Zimmerman over the next 2 seasons -- he's going to be looking for a huge payday after the 2013 Season when he becomes a free agent (he'll only be 28 at that point). If the Nationals did sign Fielder, they'd also have to figure out what they would do about Adam LaRoche. Here's his contract status ...
Adam LaRoche ...
2012 ... $8 million2013 ... $10 million w/a $1 million team buyout.
The Nationals have basically a Chone Figgins situation on their hands with LaRoche. He underwent season ending surgery shoulder surgery to repair a torn labrum and partially torn rotator cuff back on June 15th. So as far as trade value's concerned -- for a 32 year old -- he's got none. While the Nationals clearly would be looking at a replacement for LaRoche, the question they've got to ask themselves (just like the Mariners) is, "Do we really want to flush $9 million down the toilet and just cut him loose?" That's not going to happen, so they're probably stuck with him this season and will buy out his contract in 2013. In that sense, they would probably look at Fielder as his replacement and figure they'd be sending money down the septic system in terms of LaRoche and his contract -- one way or the other.
Why WOULD the Nationals be looking to sign Fielder? 
The Nationals aren't looking at Fielder purely through statistical lenses --- they're looking at him in terms of an overall business investment and seeing an opportunity to win now. Consider this -- both the Cardinals and Brewers will be significantly weakened due to attrition (Cardinals losing Pujols and the Brewers losing Fielder -- their GM Doug Melvin has already pretty much publicly come out and said goodbye). While they might have a hard time winning the NL East ... they might thinking they have a better shot at the NL Wild Card. And one thing that's been shown over time ... winning teams draw fans and make more money. Period. The Mariners experienced a significant attendance increase following the '95 Season ... same thing for the Angels after winning the World Series in 2002 (attendance went up over 700,000 the next year) ... the Milwaukee Brewers gained over 1 million more fans between 2004 (went 67-94 that year) and 2011. They went out and made the deal for Gio Gonzalez, presumably with the belief that they believe that coupled with what they've got coming up (Strasburg coming back, Harper coming up, etc.) that they can win sooner than later.
But that's only part of the picture. As Boras said (ugh! I hate admitting he's right) bringing in a Prince Fielder can mean more to a team in terms of advertising dollars, merchandise sales, and higher TV ratings. Bottom line, Fielder is a Superstar Player and as such, he is the type of guy that a team can market.
Let me put it to you this way. If you're a 14 year old guy and you're looking at buying a jersey ... are you more likely to buy a Adam LaRoche jersey or a Prince Fielder one? Hard choice. So Fielder can help a team sell merchandise like that ... he can make money in terms of billboard and TV advertisements by his sheer name recognition alone ... and he's someone that an organization can try to sell to their fanbase.
Nationals games are broadcast through MASM (Mid-Atlantic Sports Network) and frankly, their deal right now is pretty pathetic. When the Nationals moved to Washington, D.C. from Montreal, Orioles owner Peter Angelos was not a happy camper. So, in order to pacify him and allow the Nationals to move in to his territory, the Orioles were given a 90% stake in MASM ... the Nationals were given 10%. That ownership stake increases by 1% every year to a maximum of 33% (should be around 2035).
Right now, the Nationals have a 13% stake in the network and receive only about $29 million in TV revenues annually.
To give you a comparison, the Mariners earned $64 million from their deal with Fox in 2008 ... the Rangers deal pays them between somewhere in the $75-80 million a year range ... and the Angels deal could net them up to $150 million a year!
Right now, per their agreement with MASM, the Nationals are at a reset point (after 5 years) where they can look to renegotiate their deal with the Orioles and MASM over rights fees. The Nationals are driving hard for a better overall deal from MASM ... and you'd like to think they'd like a bigger stake in MASM. At the heart of it, this is a battle for the Washington-Baltimore media market -- a popularity contest. And if the Nationals believe there is an opportunity to win now ... gain more popularity among the region ... and thus gain more power and overall revenue then they'll do it.
But the bottom line, several million dollar question is -- do the Nationals really and honestly want $65-70 million tied up in only 3 players (Werth, Zimmerman, and Fielder)? 
Word is that the Nationals are a bit leery about going to the prom once again with Scott Boras after getting punch spilled in their laps with Jayson Werth last year.  I absolutely had to pick Prince's most likely landing spot outside of Seattle ... at this point I'd say it's the Nationals. But as I say that, I remain highly, highly skeptical the Nationals ARE true players for Fielder ... and Mike Zuckerman, who follows the Nationals and writes for them on a day to day basis, is as well for all the reasons listed above ...
http://www.natsinsider.com/2012/01/addressing-fielder-rumors.html
As far as Prince is concerned at this point, Scott Boras is reminding me a whole lot of that guy who, just days before the Prom, is running around in a panicked frenzy -- chasing after all the prettiest girls out there ... and being told each and every time, "Sorry, I'm going with someone else." Meanwhile, Zduriencik is sitting back watching this fiasco from afar with a knowing smile on his face ... making all the necessary preparations for the inevitable knock at the door.
MA

The Reds are out – they made their play with the massive trade for an arm already.
Still in, IMO:
Billy Butler or Alex Gordon – the Royals DESPERATELY need pitching.  They’d want a guy ready to go now, though, so instead of Walker you’d be moving Paxton + whatever, or Vargas + (Walker or Campos).
Mark Reynolds – the Orioles could absolutely be convinced to move Reynolds, and he’d be cheaper prospect-wise than either of the KC pair.
Logan Morrison or Hanley Ramirez – Logan’s “off-limits”…except I don’t believe that.  And Hanley, fragile ego and head-case that he can be, just got trumped in the Florida lineup and even though the owner loves him, he could now be available.
Ryan Zimmerman – If the Nats go get Fielder, and have Rendon able to take over 3rd, then Zimmerman could be available.
David Wright – he’s still gettable.  They lost Reyes so it’s not in the bag, but…gettable.  I expect him to move in the summer if not now, so make a good offer.
I still prefer Fielder + all the talent in our system instead of Wright (minus a big hit to the system talent) but I can’t MAKE the Ms get Fielder, nor Fielder agree to come here.  Sometimes the best option doesn’t happen. 
Also, we might just wait.  If Vinnie Catricala and Ryan Franklin work out, AND Carp, Smoak and Ackley are who we think they could be, AND Trayvon, Wells and Jaso can pull their own weight then who needs to obtain hitters, right?  Our offense will be fine, then.
See?  No worries…

Love it.  Well laid-out, MA.
And yeah, I agree, it seems like barring an 11th hour surprise the two lead horses coming around the bend are the Nats and the Ms...if Boras can talk the Nats into the TV rights and marketability part of spending that much on Fielder.
I wish Rendon were tradable at this point, because if we wanted Fielder and the Nationals wanted a cheaper 1B to let them sign Cespedes and re-sign Zimmerman...
Then a Rendon-for-Smoak swap would do wonders to clear up the situation.  We get our 3B and 1B of the present AND the future once Fielder signs here as the only market left that will offer what he wants.  The Nats get Smoak with Morse getting play at various parts of the field.  Heck, we could swap LaRoche-for-Figgins if you wanted in the process.
It would relieve the difficulties of having Smoak DH and wondering if that will mess him up. If I was Zduriencik and I really wanted this Fielder thing to go down, and I was SURE that it was us or the Nats...that's a ballsy solution.
Instead, we're gonna have to see who blinks.  Us, the Nats...or Boras.
My guess is that we're gonna need to find an alternate plan in the 5 weeks before Spring Training, and that alternate plan would look very much like our currently assembled team, with Iwakuma added.
~G

Mark Reynolds is capable of maintaining or even improving on his rate of play, and could probably be got for Charlie Furbush or Jeremy Guth-I mean Blake Beavan.

Yup. NPB standardized the balls in 2011. Before teams could use whatever they wanted and it led to crazy park factors (one reason Hiroki Kuroda was so impressive in that context).
The new ball is closer to the MLB ball. Wider seams, denser, larger, less rubber material around the core.
It may be even more pitcher friendly than MLB's standardized ball, but theres no way to know without a direct comparison.
It certainly looks like the offensive decline of NPB hitters transitioning over had more to due with a juiced ball than the level of pitchng.

Not anti-Reynolds
He's one of the few who bashes enough to make up for the Ks (Howard, Bruce, Branyan, etc.).  But if you like that kind of thing, I don't know why you wouldn't just plug Alex Liddi in there for absolutely no cost whatsover (salary or trade chips) and see if he can't do the same.  And he's got a better shot of sticking around at 3b.
I like the Iwakuma-Jaso-[Seth Smith?]-Kawasaki low-risk, medium/high-reward approach for this team.  Go for the super-elite or build from within.  Expensive mid-grade Figgins, Branyan, Reynolds types don't really make sense at this stage. 

No Love From the Lovable Losers ...
The Cubs are another team that's been mentioned most prominently as far as being a possible landing spot for Prince. In fact, a lot of experts think the Cubs is eventually where Fielder is going to end up.
Does that pass the smell test though? Despite what a lot of experts are writing and saying out there, I contend that there is a fair amount of evidence to suggest that the Cubs aren't actually players for Fielder whatsoever ...
Here is the essence of what I wrote on the Cubs at Mariner Central a few days ago ...
Back on 12/15/11, Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune Tweeted …
[Cubs manager Dale] Sveum sez Cubs have had no conversations with Prince.http://twitter.com/#...725233623797760
and Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times also Tweeted that same day …
Sveum says Cubs "haven't initiated any contact at all" with Fielder. Calls it "lot of media talk"http://twitter.com/#...726063055814656
So, unless the Cubs have an absolute fool proof time lock on every employee's mouth, it doesn't look like anyone in the organization has reached out to Prince at all.
Harry Teinowitz of ESPN 1000 Chicago told 710 ESPN's Brock and Salk back on 12/16 that the Cubs priority was pitching, as outside of Matt Garza and Dempster they really didn't have any that they could count on. He told Brock and Salk that his insider information was telling him that the Cubs were trying to acquire quality starting pitching. So in his opinion, the Cubs primary goal this offseason was to improve the pitching staff. He feared that if the Cubs slapped down the kind of money that would be required to sign Fielder without significantly upgrading the pitching staff ... they would be in a situation where they'd have to win every game 11-10.
Teinowitz also talked about the general fear that the Cubs and their fans have now of long term contracts because of Alfonso Soriano. He said that as far as 1B was concerned, the Cubs loved Carlos Pena and felt that he still can give them decent production at a fraction of what Fielder would make.
Interestingly enough though, it appears that the Cubs are shopping Matt Garza right now. Why in the Sam Hill would the Cubs shop Garza if they are hurting for starting pitching?
Well, Geoff Baker also shared with Mitch Levy back on 12/9 that the Cubs were saying that "they don't have the cash to go after Fielder -- period." Now that's very interesting indeed.
Garza is arbitration eligible and will be for the next 2 seasons (through 2013) ... and the Cubs are thought to be seeking young pitching. According to a report in the Detroit News the Tigers would make top prospect Jacob Turner available in any such trade for Garza.
This past season, the Cubs had an overall player payroll of $126,380,663 -- 6th highest in the Major Leagues.
It's been rumored that Garza could stand to make upwards to $26 million between 2012 and 2013, so it's quite possible that the Cubs are actually in a mode of trying to reduce payroll (in a semi-rebuilding mode), while trying to improve the pitching staff at the same time. Kevin Davidoff of Newsday said exactly that back on the 31st ...
Fielder wanted the Cubs; they’re a reasonable distance from his Florida home and he has outstanding numbers at Wrigley Field. The Cubs, however, appear committed to a full rebuild for 2012.
http://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/insider-albert-pujols-showed-he-s...
So Fielder's interested in the Cubs ... but that love affair doesn't appear mutual.  If the Cubs were truly interested in Fielder, you'd think that we would have heard a least some whisper -- a hint of a murmur of something. Fielder's interested in a long term commitment with the Cubs ... but it sounds like the Cubs haven't even given him so much as an inviting look.  Add to that the fact that I just can't see a guy like Theo Epstein being all that interested in Fielder ... and all of those things in combination tells me that all this talk of Fielder to the Cubs ... is most likely "media talk" (just like Sveum said it was). After reading the tea leaves, I don't believe there's any way Fielder's going to Chicago. In reality, I believe the idea of Fielder to the Cubs is merely another example of Boras doing that voodoo ... that he do ... so well. ;)
MA

Alex Liddi has the potential to perform like Reynolds, Howard, Branyan, et al (although he's never shown the ability to walk like any of them), but he hasn't done it yet, and the world of baseball is littered with guys that crushed in AAA but were exposed in the Majors.  Often, in cases like Branyan and Cust, it takes them years to get it together (or get a chance to strike out 200 times).  Chris Davis is still trying to figure it out, we saw Carlos Peguero this year try to make it work and Wladimir Balentien a couple years ago, Wily Mo Pena, Brad Eldred, Jason Dubois, Mat Gamel, Josh Bell.  Until the guy has actually made the skill work at the Major League level, I don't think he should block the acquisition of someone who's already got it working and isn't too expensive.

I stand on my sinking ship.
I think there's a decent chance for a breakout for Mark Reynolds breakout.  He likely wouldn't cost anything we're afraid to lose (if he did cost James Paxton or Taijuan Walker I wouldn't be as enthusiastic about it), and he wouldn't block anyone, he's played 3rd Base for his career, he's played first, he could likely handle Left Field, and if none of that works, it's not like there's someone in the way at DH.  I just got my first copy of Baseball Forecaster (Jemanji's commision should be in the mail) and Mark Reynolds leads all Major League batters in PX (A Baseball HQ stat for measuring power on contact), and they don't have a leaderboard for it, but his xPX (a general measurement of how hard a player hits line drives and flyballs) was higher than Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder, Joey Votto, Jose Bautista, Ryan Braun, Matt Kemp, and Mark Teixera.  If you could acquire any of those players for a 4th or 5th starter and a B- prospect, would you?  Would you yawn and say you'd rather play a rookie than pay the price?  He doesn't block Liddi or Seager unless you want him to, maybe he nibbles away 100 PA from Liddi, Seager, Carp, Wells, and Smoak, is that necessarily a travesty?

Agreed on the Forecaster commission bit. I bought my first copy last year because of SSI's writeups, and now my wife and family know that each year's issue is a standing Christmas list request.

Iwakuma signed. Incredible value.
"One-year contract worth $1.5MM, reports ESPN's Jerry Crasnick (Twitter links). The deal includes $4.9MM in incentives based on starts and innings pitched. "
Too bad there wasn't a club option or two added, but thats a great deal for the Ms.
 

Yowza...  I had a post in mind to cut-n-paste as soon as Iwakuma signed.  "And this is the Mariners spending all their cash, this is the only significant add of the offseason, blah blah..."
They got him for NOTHING.  If he pans out, next year you're gonna have to pay him.
But IF he pans out, mightn't you want to?
Felix, Pineda and Iwakuma is gonna be a frustrating top 3 for opponents to face.  They're all righties, but that's okay: we have two monster lefties pounding on the door, plus Vargas and Furbush and whomever.  I still think Ultra-Rotating Vargas has a decent chance to make a splash this year, which is all kinds of interesting to me.
And we pushed whatever funds we might press into Iwakuma's hands after a successful U.S. debut to NEXT year's budget, when the Ichiro money will (should?) be available.
We still have plenty of payroll for this year, and are staring Fielder and Boras down across that pot of chips.  Amazing.
~G

Man, you can see that his velocity really dropped down after going down with the shoulder in mid-May..
I would still baby him. He was down in velocity since returning in July even with low pitch counts and more rest between starts.
The offseason should have given his arm some rest. He'll get a chance to prove hes healthy in 2011 and get a much better deal in FA next year.