Seattle Sports Insider

Seattle Sports Insider

POTD Hector Noesi - UP, MID, LO

Posted by

jemanji

1/13/12

1

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Q. How reasonable is it to expect 180 innings at a 110+ ERA?

A. It's what Cashman expected, since he had already given Noesi a 2012 rotation slot. Over a whale of a lot of competition.

Cashman was sincere in anointing Noesi a starter for 2012, sent him down to get stretched out in winter ball. He sold Noesi's rotation spot pretty hard. The Yankees' brass and fans thought that Noesi was going to be a good young SP for them. In New York that's saying a lot.

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Q. UP scenario?

A. Noesi throws hard in 2012, with command, and his slider continues to pop the parachutes on hitters. In Safeco, he winds up with a Matt Garza kind of season, about 6.5 to 8.0 strikeouts, 110 or even 120 ERA+.

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Q. LO scenario?

A. The slider and curve turn out to be worthless, the sailing changeup gets hit, the 91 fastball is overexposed, and Noesi has to go back to the pen. A fail is quite feasible here.

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Q. MID scenario?

A. Noesi battles his offspeed stuff some, but still throws 90-92 in the rotation and with command and a good pitch mix, having a Jeremy Hellickson kind of result. Maybe 5-6 strikeouts, a 100 ERA+ or average xFIP, as he matures in his first full season. Still you get 2.0 WAR or so for the league minimum.

Ron Shandler goes for a MID-UP [split the difference] rookie year. He has 6.8 strikeouts, 2.8 walks, 0.8 homers, 3.93 xERA. By the way, Ron comments,

"Marched through minors with tiny walk rate, but when it doubled in '11, he was less effective. Still, he projects as a high-CMD guy. One of thousands in the mix for NYY rotation slot, but this one may have more skills than Nova. If it's possible to be an (American League fantasy) sleeper in New York, he could be one."

That'll do for us too. Noesi is volatile, but he comes in as a #3-4 guy. We can gingerly project him to 30 starts at a 105 ERA+, and there's all kinds of opportunity for Noesi to splash the league as a fine young impact starter.

Cheers,

Dr D

Comments

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So far - LO...and strike two

Q. LO scenario?
A. The slider and curve turn out to be worthless, the sailing changeup gets hit, the 91 fastball is overexposed, and Noesi has to go back to the pen. A fail is quite feasible here.

Fastball heat is okay, but he's a two pitch pitcher and without fastball control he gets DESTROYED. His either can't or won't pitch backwards with the change, so being able to hit his spots early with the heat is crucial.
He's been hammered and KOed early in two of three starts. That's two strikes against him. Third time that happens, he's out of the rotation, IMO, maybe kicked all the way to Tacoma to continue to work on being a starter without hurting the big club. Erasmo looked good again out of the pen, and his changeup is nasty to lefties and righties, which isn't always the case.
Good to see Iwakuma. He does exist! The rumors of a Japanese pitcher in the pen are not a vicious lie after all.
Getting destroyed by the Ultra-Robo-Death version of Furbush is painful, though. Sale and his wonky mechanics can be devastating and tonight he was for sure. If that was how Furbush was all the time, I'd understand trading Fister for him + a few. Maybe down the line.
Of course, that'd be another arm trying to cram into the rotation. Noesi better straighten up and fly right.
~G

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