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Now that was a hold and a half!
Pauley and Wright have saved the first 1/3 season. Bought the M's some time. Still need some big time short men in here.
POTD David Pauley - May 26, 2011
Q. What have the POTD's said about Pauley up to this point?
A. That he's a fringe major league pitcher -- emphasis on the "major league" part of that.
As the M's experimented with Ian Snell, Ryan Rowland-Smith, Garrett Olson, and others, we nagged that the M's were wasting time on pitchers who had no chance in the big leagues long-term. (Jason Vargas was another pitcher we cyber-flushed in grave error; it's not like we fly with a perfect operational record!)
Point is, it's not like SSI signs off easily on fringe pitchers. Takes a lot for us to buy in to a guy like Pauley.
But Pauley did get picked out of the Scrubs lineup as a guy who would return some remuneration for the M's investment of pain.
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Q. How much remuneration?
A. In January we had him as our #6 starter. Since March 23, we've had him as our cyber-closer, the guy we would (under the dire circumstances here) use in the ninth inning if it were our world.
Now, since Erik Bedard is talking about David Pauley as if he were the new Scot Shields, time to give you our $0.02 on where Pauley's headed.
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Q. What sets David Pauley apart from AAAA pitchers like Olson and Snell?
A. The same thing that sets Ryan Franklin apart. Pauley throws four pitches with confidence and command.
There is a very subtle difference in the way that Franklin throws his 3rd and 4th pitches, compared to the way that, say, Cha Seung Baek does. The quality of the 3rd and 4th pitches makes the difference. Lots of guys throw lousy 3rd and 4th pitches. Pauley's are pretty decent, and he will use them.
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And Pauley uses those offspeed pitches -- Wednesday, for example, he threw 10 fastballs and 14 offspeed. In scouting lingo, Pauley's change-speed game is "65", plus to plus-plus.
Like Teddy Ballgame said, hitting is timing, and pitching is upsetting timing. Pauley's just good enough to make his game work in the bigs. Just barely.
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Q. Was that the M's reasoning with Pauley, do you think?
A. Personally would guess that they were swayed by the "makeup" factor. Which intersects, here.
But how impressive is it, that Eric Wedge zero'ed in on Pauley and Wright, over Ray and Ring and those guys?
Pauley and Wright were not simple decisions! And they had to be made Right. Now.
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Q. Is Pauley throwing any better in 2011 than in 2010?
A. He is, yes.
A little better, not a lot better. But sometimes that's enough to create a Shigetoshi Hasegawa 2003 type season.
In 2003 Shiggy -- a polished, mediocre pro -- did several things a little better, and it accumulated. Same going on here.
Esteban Loaiza 2003 had this kind of a season. He was just an average pitcher who was red hot, pitching at the very limits of his capacity. Sometimes pitchers do this.
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F/X again confirms the CF camera. Consider the following F/X trends:
- 1-inch drop - Pauley's changeup, 2008 (vs average 9-inch rising FB)
- 4-inch drop - 2010
- 7-inch drop - 2011
And his yakker:
- 5-inch drop vs. vacuum, 14-inch vs fastball - Pauley's curve, 2008
- 8-inch drop - 2010
- 11-inch drop (!) - 2011
Pauley is simply throwing all his pitches with a little more bite. It's across the board, every pitch, vertical and horizontal drop -- a couple extra inches' bite on everything.
The couple inches aren't huge, but the overall crispness is... the difference between AAA and 10th man is subtle, and the difference between 10th man and good MLB pitcher is subtle.
The extra bite and command doesn't make him Orel Hershiser. It makes him "fairly good" rather than "mediocre" -- and only so long as he rides red-line at the very limits of his abilities. Like Ryan Franklin.
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Wednesday, holding Bedard's victory, he threw 10 vicious changeups -- at 9 inches' drop and 10 inches' armside swerve, David Pauley's changeup had an extra 2 inches' drop and 2 inches swerve even over his enhanced 2011 change.
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Q. Why so many changeups? Thought he had 4 pitches. Wednesday, he used mostly two.
A. One more magnificent chapter in the Miguel Olivo saga.
Olivo sees a pitch that is working, he simply calls it. He sees a pitch that's not working, he simply doesn't call it.
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Q. How about his sinker?
A. Ya. In addition, Pauley's fastball has developed that extra few inches of sink that puts him among the leaders in the game. He's up to 6, 8, 10 inches sink vs. league average.
So he is, at this point, working with a plus sinker and a plus change -- his two primary weapons at time of this writing. Plus two other decent pitches that are actually factors in his game.
It adds up, and he's an average-to-good pitcher this year.
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Q. Any ideas why Pauley is sharper in 2011?
A. Well, he's being used out of the pen. In 2H 2010 he was a rookie, and started 15 games right out of the gate.
No surprise that his arm would have extra life out of the pen. Surprise is that he has ZERO issues finding his command out of the pen. Sweet.
Compare Tom Wilhelmsen, who IMHO needs 45 minutes' routine and a very set schedule. Looks like David Pauley's our new Shiggy.
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Q. Speaking of which, is Pauley your #6 starter, if Bedard or Pineda hit a speed bump?
A. Tom Wilhelmsen. I'd be getting him stretched out ASAP. He's one of Spec's (and G's?) adopt-a-players, and liable to make 'im proud...
With all these Felixes and Pinedas and Paxtons, we almost forget what a simple classic starting pitcher prospect looks like. That's Wilhelmsen. He's not an 80% chance to be a TOR or anything like that; he's just a big tall hard-throwing RHP with three good pitches and a starter's mechanics and rhythm.
Wilhelmsen is everything you want in a big RHP prospect, which makes him ... a good prospect.
Pauley's needed in the pen.
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Q. Is he being used too much?
A. He's on pace for 96 innings out of the pen...
Hm. ...Well, by 2012, certainly by 2013, he's going to be WAY below sea level on making this pitching staff. He might as well make a name for himself while he has the chance.
Some guys can handle 90, 100 innings out of the pen. Scot Shields gave the Angels 5-6 years of it. Hey, check out his IP trend if you want a chuckle.
There's a reason that Scioscia used Shields for 148 innings in 2003 and 100 more in their pennant season. He needed him.
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See also Say Wanna Cut Haids?
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